My advice which may save you money...and win some!

AceHigh

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Working in a bar a few years ago, when I was 16, I knew this degenerate gambler who always sat at the bar and would have a few drinks. He was not a good handicapper based on the fact he was buying picks from one of the guys I worked with at the bar, but he did have one thing I liked...a philosophy.

Bet one game a week at a certain limit.

Circle a few games at the beginning of the week, cap them, and choose if the line coinsides with your idea of how the game will plan out. This is a very very difficult thing to do. Even the degenerate could not follow his own philosophy, because when he got in the whole, he did what a lot of cappers do....chase.

I gave up sports handicapping for a while because I no longer had love for the game. When I lost, it hurt, so badly I wanted to ignore I lost. This was easily done by not reading the sportspage or even watching sportscenter.

After about a year, I have returned. Some of you might remember me from the past, and others, may have just met me. I am up only 2 units this year, but being up feels much better than being behind.

I like the philosophy of playing one game a week. Shoot, if you really wanted, one game a month. Does it really matter? This is how I see it. If you went 53.8% in the year, you would have to win 28 games out of the 52 weeks. Figuring you played each game to win 100 dollars, Winning 28 games = 2800. Losing 24 games = 2640. A profit of 160. This may not seem much, but its a winning season!! If you increased your wager to 1000 a game, obviously 1600 would be the profit.

I honestly believe if you tally all your time on one game during the week and have the money management to be patient if you lose, this can be a good strategy. The key is obviously MONEY MANAGEMENT. This is probably the most difficult thing for handicappers. I think every capper has had problems with this.

Please, I would love your thoughts. There is a long road ahead of me. I love advice and always look for me.

Thanks to guys like Nolan, KC Wolf, Hoops...etc I am just beginning to learn...
 

yyz

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I think that is a good way to go. Better still, pick a team to follow, and make a bet on or against them when you feel you have the edge you need.

Welcome back, by the way.
 

yanno

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My God, AceHigh

My God, AceHigh

I am not trying to be negative in any way, but listen to yourself...

If you went 53.8% in the year, you would have to win 28 games out of the 52 weeks. Figuring you played each game to win 100 dollars, Winning 28 games = 2800. Losing 24 games = 2640. A profit of 160. This may not seem much, but its a winning season!!

To cap several games a week and to narrow them down to ONE bet still means endless hours understanding the sport, etc. You are doing a HUGE amount of work over a year to win a measly $160 (or $1600 if you wager a dime a bet). If it is money you are interested in, this is one of the POSITIVELY WORST returns on your time that I can think of. You could do better flipping hamburgers at some minimum wage place.

If you do this, I don't think you should pretend it is for anything other than amusement. And HEY, if it is just a hobby for amusement, a way to kill time, then it's cheaper than fishing! :)
 

AceHigh

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in response...

in response...

I do not want to do this for large amounts of money, but I believe this system is helpful in keeping me out of the red.... Worst returns on money, I'd believe that would be a savings account. If I would win 1600 a year on wagering, I would not at all be upset. Figuring if you placed 10000 in the bank, at 2% interest, this would be 200.00.


Have a good one...
 
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THE KOD

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Re: My advice which may save you money...and win some!

AceHigh said:
Losing 24 games = 2640. A profit of 160. This may not seem much, but its a winning season!!

This reminds me of a story about Redd Foxx back in Las Vegas. Redd was visiting this old man in the hospital who was dieing.

The guy was like 80 years old and was ready to get on the bus.

He says to Redd.........I lived a good clean life.... I never smoked , gambled, or chased woman....


Redd says


DAMN YOU ARE DYING FOR NOTHING


Scott King of the Dogs
 
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djv

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There are folks that do this. They play in most cases just 1 or 2 sports. So they do not go all year. One of then plays College and Pro FB only. He has one pick of each, each week. I learned some thing from him. But to just do it his way was not for me I wanted alittle more action and a few more sports. This year college he is 8 & 4 has 2 bowl games to play and thats it. He ended Pro plays last week, never plays last weekend. 10 & 6. Will play at most 1 or 2 playoff games and maybe the super bowl. He does not always play SB. Our local guy hates hime because he wins it seems every year. He keeps great records and its easy to do when you only play a few games each year. I can tell you 55% and better is the nomal for him. He is a 220 per pop player. Calls this his Xmas club fund. I may jusy start doing what he is. There is a fellow on the wep that does this in NFL only. For three years straight now he has hit 60% or better. 10 & 6, 10 & 6 and 11 & 5. Ill take that anytime. So if you want to make life easier and win this may be one way to try.
 

ferdville

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The philosophy behind this type of betting is reeasonably sound. I cut my gambling teeth on horse racing as a very young boy. I will never forget one of the guys that taught me the most about gambling and money management. We would go to the track and he would say that he liked these horses. If their prices met his expectrations, he would play them. If they didn't, he would not. Spent many days with him where he never made a play.

But....I disagree with both of the philosophies in two ways. Deciding to bet one game per week (month, year, etc) doesn't allow for the fact that just possibly, there might be 2 or even 3 games in that span that offer the same criteria you want. When all systems say go, I think you need to go. Limiting yurself to one bet in a certain time period doesn't make sense. What makes sense is to manage your money and control your betting so that you only play games that fit your criteria. It may be that you go 2 or 3 weeks with no bets. Then one week you may have 2 or 3 plays. It was the same with my old buddy at the track. He might go two weeks and never make a play. He might have a day when he made 3 or 4 plays. The circumstances dictated.

The problem with most of us, myself included, is that we don't have the patience and self-control to do this. If I was playing soley to make a profit (that sounds like a stupid statement), I could embrace that system of betting. I certainly won't knock that approach - it just wouldn't work for most of us. If I was to try to gamble for my livelihood, I would definitely not play in the same manner I do now (another stupid statement).
 

THE KOD

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ferdville said:
The problem with most of us, myself included, is that we don't have the patience and self-control to do this. If I was playing soley to make a profit (that sounds like a stupid statement), I could embrace that system of betting. I certainly won't knock that approach - it just wouldn't work for most of us. If I was to try to gamble for my livelihood, I would definitely not play in the same manner I do now (another stupid statement).

you hit it right on the head there ferd.


:lol: :talk: :lol: :nutkick

Scott King of the Dogs
 

TORONTO-VIGILANTE

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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
i'd just like to add to this thread...

try it in baseball...one or two games a week.

IT WORKS.

alot less factors to deal with...and only two outcomes:

WIN or LOSE.

no ties.

gonna impliment this system like i did last year.

good luck.
 
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