My Bowl Thread

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 47-44 (+7.40*)
Bowl eligible.

LY Bowl Season: 9-4
(Here I wanted a link to "My Bowl Thread" from last year, but an archive search found only 315 of my 345 prior posts, and zero posts from the "Flying Pigskins (NCAA)" forum on or before 1/3/02. Go figure.)

In chronological order:

Definite inclinations (and some early action):
- Texas Tech(-5)
- Pittsburgh(+2')
- Oklahoma State(-7)
- Kansas State(-17)
- Arkansas(-8')
- Michigan(+1')
- Iowa(+6)
- Miami(-13)

Leaning now:
- Cincinnati(-8)
- Marshall(-3)
- Boston College(-4)
- Colorado(-7')
- Maryland(-1)
- Penn State(-5')
- Georgia(-3')

Plenty of time to sort it all out and watch the games unfold.

GO HAWKS!
It's Great to Be a Bumblebee!

GL

 

[louthesz]

too much chalk my man! do enjoy your writing skills

 

[lostinamerica]

Yo, louthesz. Your point is very well taken and will help me remember to keep both hands on the wheel as I watch the bowl season unfold.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

No. 1: Cincinnati(-8 and -7') for 1.5*

The UC Bearcats played a schedule featuring 7 bowl bound teams and emerged with their first league title in football since 1964 in the Missouri Valley . . . The Sun Belt conference operates well below my radar, but the play and reputation of the Mean Green's stout defense first managed to register on my radar due to the insights always being offered up on the MJ forums . . . I have to believe any step up in class (speed/power/depth/etc.) is most likely to be evident when the Bearcats defense squares off against the UNT offense that has put up numbers out of whack with what is to be expected from the opportunities (special teams wise, too) generated by any defense that is as good as advertised . . . Cinci won 5 out of 6 down the stretch in order to nail down a bowl birth just 11 days ago, and they lost bowl games the last two years after surrendering halftime leads (including a wild finish against Toledo in the Motor City last year), and the Bearcat's don't appear to fit the profile of a team that is disappointed to have landed in the Big Easy . . . Let the pageantry begin.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

I really, really, really liked Texas Tech. I played Texas Tech. I always post my plays. But on Monday at the office I was brain dead in the morning and distracted in the afternoon and convinced myself I hadn't made enough of an effort of looking at the game to post it as a play. I have been annoyed about it for 2 days.

No. 2: Tulane(+13') for 1*
Liking a spirited effort from Tulane for 60 minutes and nothing like a mismatch.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Tomorrow is likely a key day in my Bowl season. Today I like:

No. 3: Boston College(-4) for 1.5*
It is a step up in class, but this surprising Toledo team has responded in games time and again this year and has been very good to me. With BC averaging over 40 ppg in its last three contests, they should be up to weathering the storm.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

No. 4: Pittsburgh(+1' and +2) for 1*
Tough call. I think Pitt is solid as the equal of the Beavers.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Maybe. Maybe not.
---------- ---------- -------

Southern Miss vs. Oklahoma State:

On one side I see balance, physicality, playmakers, coaching, and a motivated squad of bowlers. The Cowboys losing to SMiss in 2001 and 2000 is an interesting sidebar. On the other side I see a focused effort that still doesn't measure up.

http://www.stwnewspress.com/02/dec/25/sp_progress.html

---------- ---------- ----------

Arizona State vs. Kansas State:

This is certainly one of Coach Snyder's most talented and athletic teams. What stands out to me is that they are probably his best coached team . . . The Holiday Bowl is one of the best, but I doubt the Wildcats are complacent about the reward they have received for a job well done . . . ASU strikes me as being in over its head to at least the same extent as the Missouri team that was pummeled 38-0 on grass and on Senior Day in KState's last outing. A few scores by ASU doesn't change the play I am seeing on one side of the line of scrimmage that is a decided mismatch likely to produce a frenzy of jailbreaks, turnovers, easy scores, the whole nine yards.

Coach Snyder (12/16/02):

"I'm pleased with this football team in reference to their ability to mature a great deal over the course of the year. They have demonstrated the capacity not only to be more focused in a ballgame. When we talk about preparation, it's the entirety of the preparation. It's how you respond to the meeting time, how you respond to the fundamental work, how you respond to some of the little things on the practice field. It's their sensitivity to those things and their acceptance of how that all is beneficial to them. I've been pleased that our players have responded to the little things."

"Conveying the message of what (bowl) week is all about when you get out there. You have to hope that they follow suit well, that they latch on to somebody, that they work at somebody else's pace. They understand when its time to enjoy themselves and when it' s time to roll your sleeves up and go to work."
"Number one is going to deal with how well Arizona State throws the football. We had some difficulty earlier in the season defending against the pass. Terrell Suggs is certainly a challenge. Their quarterback-receiver combination is certainly a challenge. They have great numbers to support that. I think the challenge of going in as a ridiculous favorite is significant. There are other things that don't even deal with Arizona State. I think this team desperately wants to be an 11-win team. I think that is very significant to them. Being a top five football team is significant to them."
---------- ---------- ----------

No. 5: Oklahoma State(-7 and -8) for 2*

No. 6: Kansas State(-17 and -18) for 2*

Parlay: Oklahoma State(-8) and Kansas State(-18) for 1* @ 2.6/1

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

BOWL UPDATE: 4-2 (+0.65*)

No. 7: Tease Wisconsin(+13' and Ov 47') for 1*
Wisky is Bowl resilient. Neither defense takes charge. Entertainment.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

No. 8: Arkansas(-7') for 1.5*
Arkansas was worn down when it faced a fresh and destined Georgia team for the SEC Championship. The Minnesota coaches are pleased that the young Gophers can use this Bowl as a building block for next year. The stout Razorbacks have unfinished business for this year.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

No. 9: Boise State(-11') for 1.5*
Big Boys on the Smurf Turf Bowl should find the home team with some game. ISU Coach McCarney has been preaching a "fresh start" approach but I haven't caught wind of an emotional fire sweeping the Cyclones . . . Iowa State at its best keys off the playmaking swagger of Seneca Wallace. Coach and quarterback acknowledge Wallace struggles with a slick football. Hard to see today's conditions promoting the old swagger of patience in the pocket and winging tough throws on the run . . . The level of nastiness from the ISU offensive line will likely tell me which way this game is headed.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

No. 10: Tease Purdue(+8 and Ov 50) for 1.5*

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

BOWL UPDATE: 7-3 (+3.00*)

I capped all of the remaining games last night from the angle of trying to identify teams that seemed much more likely to bring an emotional nastiness to their play regardless of who they were playing. It was subjective, but I seen what I seen. The first two plays from today showed plenty of resilience, so until I hit a run of badly missing the mark, I'll likely be including Tennessee, LSU, NC State, Oklahoma, Georgia and Iowa among my remaining plays, adjusting when need be.

No. 11: Tennessee(+1) for 1*

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

Getting a late start on the early games.

No. 12: Tease LSU(-16' and Un 52') for 1.5*
Saban vs. Brown. Give those two a month to prepare for a game and I know which one I expect to have his team ready in all phases of the game. And it has to start with defense.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

A busy place, eh? S-L-O-W.

No. 13: Michigan(+1' and -1') for 1.5*
Michigan has had a fine but also disappointing season (3 losses to teams that only lost 3 games between them). Zook and Florida are an opportunity to get it right for a balanced and capable Big 10 team.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Georgia has been special all year and getting better. Florida State has not been at the same level since Mark Richt left. I don't expect the old man to school the kid tonight.

Penn State has not had a Bowl opportunity since 1999.

No. 14: Penn State(-7') for 1.5*
No. 15: Georgia(-8) for 1.5*
Parlay: (-7' and -8) for 0.50* @ 2.6/1

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

I have to have a play on the Rose Bowl.

No. 16: Oklahoma(-5)
Only play is to Parlay OK(-5) with GA(-7) for 1* @ 2.6/1
I'm not joining the stampede to Washington State and Florida State.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

BOWL UPDATE: 10-6 (+3.70*)
O.K.
---------- ---------- ----------

No. 18: Iowa(+6) for 1.5* and Iowa(+210 ML) for 1*

Before the Notre Dame game I stated in a post the USC had "been berry, berry good to me" this year in a season about thrice as righteous as that of the Irish.

This is about my 5th post for stating what has seemed apparent to me: The Hawks have the right stuff.

I was at Kinnick Stadium and watched the pass defense come of age before my eyes during the course of the Purdue game. Iowa's receiving corps is seriously underrated. I expect Iowa to win the battle of turnovers. Coach Ferentz quotes the axiom of Tom Osborne that you have to stick with the running game in the first and second quarter to expect the dividends that come in the fourth quarter. The Hawks were sharp from the start in the Alamo Bowl (on carpet vs. Kingsbury) last year. But I'd be lying if I didn't say I wish this game was being played in November.

How to play Iowa is the only question for me. I have to believe Iowa will have at least 27 points on the board if they come away with the win. But this ain't about no stinkin' money. GO HAWKS!

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

No. 18: Miami(-11' and -11) for 1.5*
Football fans probably deserve something resembling a game to remember before the Bowl season just sort of fades away. Ohio State is after the National Championship that has eluded them for decades and if they play possessed they probably can create their opportunity to believe they will win it in the 4th quarter. Miami is only a shirttail relation to last year's dominating Beast from the East, but the Miami camp has me expecting a stellar effort that will put some hurt on the Buckeyes. I've looked at the game long enough and I'm sticking with my initial choice of Miami by double digits.

GL