Nice writeup and analysis done in here supporting Conneticut today. Probably more sensible than my take on it, but I will throw out my thoughts.
I would think that it's tough to compare base numbers between two very different conference teams in measuring sheer totals - Big 10 much more low scoring and foul oriented which keeps rebounding, blocks and scoring numbers down. I think Michigan State is the one Big 10 team capable of playing a different type of game successfully, they certainly are strong rebounders (have outrebounded opponents by nearly 10 a game this season, more than UConn by a little), and have offensive players that can step up and create their own shots - most of the time that kind of thing was not necessary in the majority of their schedule.
I would rate Izzo as good a coach as Calhoun in a head to head scenario, and don't think MSU will have any huge down periods in the game with Izzo running things and the quality players they have.
The main key to this game is the outside shooting of two MSU players, IMO. If MSU big man Suton can hit a couple 12-15 footers early, there could be some defensive matchup issues for UConn. Ideally, I think Izzo will set up an offense to get him those shots early to set a tone and try to get Thabeet out further than he would like to play. The other shooting key will be Chris Allen - who if hitting the three at all will further open things up for the athletic slashing guard/forwards. If neither can hit with regularity, I don't see MSU winning the game. I think their guards match up well with UConn, and I think their depth exceeds UConn quite a bit, and I think Izzo will take runs at and challenge Thabeet to draw fouls. Of course, that doesn't work very often against him, but if any of the UConn starters does get in foul trouble, the depth factor will work against them. Izzo is great at isolating players both offensively and defensively.
Generally in these big games, I don't like to stake a wager hoping for good shooting from outside players, but I really like the overall team makeup of MSU. I love the way Walton plays the game, the sheer joy and smiles he throws out there. It's a bright, shining moment waiting to happen, if you will. And if somehow Raymar Morgan can find some strength again after resting another week and recapture some of his magic, then that could be a big plus as far as attacking the UConn big men.
I realize I'm probably more hoping than predicting, but my money probably will back my leaning analysis and a team that really seems to have it's mojo going right now.
I would think that it's tough to compare base numbers between two very different conference teams in measuring sheer totals - Big 10 much more low scoring and foul oriented which keeps rebounding, blocks and scoring numbers down. I think Michigan State is the one Big 10 team capable of playing a different type of game successfully, they certainly are strong rebounders (have outrebounded opponents by nearly 10 a game this season, more than UConn by a little), and have offensive players that can step up and create their own shots - most of the time that kind of thing was not necessary in the majority of their schedule.
I would rate Izzo as good a coach as Calhoun in a head to head scenario, and don't think MSU will have any huge down periods in the game with Izzo running things and the quality players they have.
The main key to this game is the outside shooting of two MSU players, IMO. If MSU big man Suton can hit a couple 12-15 footers early, there could be some defensive matchup issues for UConn. Ideally, I think Izzo will set up an offense to get him those shots early to set a tone and try to get Thabeet out further than he would like to play. The other shooting key will be Chris Allen - who if hitting the three at all will further open things up for the athletic slashing guard/forwards. If neither can hit with regularity, I don't see MSU winning the game. I think their guards match up well with UConn, and I think their depth exceeds UConn quite a bit, and I think Izzo will take runs at and challenge Thabeet to draw fouls. Of course, that doesn't work very often against him, but if any of the UConn starters does get in foul trouble, the depth factor will work against them. Izzo is great at isolating players both offensively and defensively.
Generally in these big games, I don't like to stake a wager hoping for good shooting from outside players, but I really like the overall team makeup of MSU. I love the way Walton plays the game, the sheer joy and smiles he throws out there. It's a bright, shining moment waiting to happen, if you will. And if somehow Raymar Morgan can find some strength again after resting another week and recapture some of his magic, then that could be a big plus as far as attacking the UConn big men.
I realize I'm probably more hoping than predicting, but my money probably will back my leaning analysis and a team that really seems to have it's mojo going right now.
