I went into this writeup undecided on a side for the Superbowl. Leaning fairly strongly towards Tampa Bay but just want to be sure. One thought that's been going through my head...I don't recall Oakland facing too many teams with really good D this year. Going to check it out.
{edit} Ok, now that I've finished writing this all up it's a mile long. Man I really wish I could post spreadsheets here because this probably won't display too well. Hope it's not too hard to follow what all the #'s mean and everything. I know I've got major eye-strain after taking the 2+ hours to hash this all out. Hopefully someone finds it helpful.
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Oakland vs D
Oakland opponents this year, in order:
vs Sea, @ Pitt, vs Tenn, @ Buff, @ StL, vs SD, @ KC, vs SF,
@ Den, vs NE, @ Ariz, vs NYJ, @ SD, @ Mia, vs Den, vs KC
Playoff games: vs NYJ, vs Tenn
Respective rankings of Raiders' opponents Yds/G against:
28, 7, 10, 15, 13, 30, 32, 14,
6, 23, 29, 24, 30, 3, 6, 32.
Playoffs: 24, 10
Only 5 opponents in the Top 10. 9 opponents ranked 23rd or worse, including 4 ranked 30th or worse!
Tampa Bay is ranked #1 in this category...by a WIDE margin. Averaging 252.8 Yds/G against. 2nd best team (Carolina) allowed 290.4 Yds/G against.
Respective rankings of Raiders' opponents PPG against:
23, 17, 11, 27, 24, 22, 28, 18,
15, 16, 29, 14, 22, 4, 15, 28.
Playoffs: 14, 11
Only 1 Top 10 opponent. 8 opponents ranked 22nd or worse.
Tampa Bay is also ranked #1 in this category at 12.2 PPG. 2nd best team (Philly) was almost 3 PPG worse, at 15.1.
Neat stat I just discovered: Oakland is 13-0 this year when scoring more than 22 pts...but they are also 0-5 when scoring less than 22 pts. In the five losses, the Raiders allowed a minimum of 20 pts in each.
One thing most of the teams that beat Oakland have in common.... good rushing defence. KC is the one exception (ranked 24th). The other teams that beat them: St Louis (14th), San Diego (11th), San Francisco (7th) and Miami (5th). Tampa Bay ranks 6th in this category. However, the Raiders have beaten a number of teams with very good rush defence, including Pittsburgh (1st), Tennessee twice (2nd), Denver twice (4th), and San Diego in their other game against them. I guess the point of that whole paragraph was just that a good run defence has a chance to shut down Oakland...but without a good run D the chances are very slim.
Conclusion: Oakland has seen nothing defensively like these guys all year long. (I know, that's a huge surprise, right?). Raiders could have a lot of difficulty moving the ball and putting points on the board.
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Oakland vs O
Respective rankings of Raiders' opponents Yds/G on offence:
7, 5, 17, 11, 13, 16, 4, 8,
3, 21, 27, 22, 16, 15, 3, 4
Playoffs: 22, 17
The Raiders have played against a lot of teams that can move the ball. 7 Top 10 opponents compared to just 4 opponents ranked 21st or worse. Those 4 teams ranked 21st or worse in this category scored 20, 20, 20 and 10 pts respectively against Oakland. Tampa Bay ranks 24th in this category.
Respective rankings of Raiders' opponents PPG on offence:
16, 8, 13, 11, 24, 20, 1, 14,
7, 10, 29, 15, 20, 12, 7, 1
Playoffs: 15, 13
Raiders have played against a pretty fair mix of high and low-scoring teams. Earlier in the year they would give up high totals to the good offences, but since their 4-game losing streak the Raiders have kept opposing offences in check a bit better. Still not stellar D, but better than early on. There doesn't appear to be much co-relation between these rankings and how many actual points opponents put up against Oakland.
Tampa Bay ranks 18th in this category...in other words, very average compared to what Oakland has seen all year.
Conclusion: Raiders appear to handle all qualities of offence about equally. However, Raiders overall defensive numbers have improved since mid-season. Halfway thru this analysis I am think Under is looking like a reasonable play.
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Tampa Bay vs D
Tampa Bay's opponents this year, in order:
vs NO, @ Balt, vs StL, @ Cin, @ Atl, vs Clev, @ Phil, @ Car,
vs Minn, vs Car, vs GB, @ NO, vs Atl, @ Det, vs Pitt, @ Chi
Playoff games: vs SF, @ Phil
Respective rankings of Bucs' opponents Yds/G against:
27, 22, 13, 17, 20, 21, 4, 2,
26, 2, 12, 27, 20, 31, 7, 25
Playoffs: 14, 4
Only 5 opponents in the Top 10. 9 opponents ranked 21st or worse. These numbers are very similar to the rankings Oakland faced in the first comparison.
So on the whole Tampa has played a lot of teams that surrender more than the league average amount of yards. When facing the top teams from this category TB scored 10, 12, 23, 7 and 27 pts. So it appears that the Bucs have extreme difficulty when facing top D...with one exception...last week's playoff win @ Philly (keep in mind the defensive pts TB scored in that game too).
Oakland is ranked #11 in this category. Sounds funny to say it since the Raiders get very little credit defensively, but is this actually one of the better defensive squads (yards-wise) that the Bucs have gone up against this year??
Respective rankings of Bucs' opponents PPG against:
26, 19, 24, 32, 8, 10, 2, 5,
30, 5, 12, 26, 8, 31, 17, 25
Playoffs: 18, 2
5 Top 10 opponents, but 7 opponents ranked 24th or worse.
Not surprisingly, almost all of the Bucs big offensive performances came against the teams with really bad D in this category. The Bucs have been held below 20 pts 5 times this year, and those occasions were against the teams ranked #'s 10, 2, 5, 17 and 25. Only twice did the Bucs score 20 or more vs a Top 10 team - 20 pts vs #8 Atlanta, and 27 pts vs #2 ranked Philly in last week's playoff game.
Oakland is (maybe surprisingly) ranked #6 in this category at 19.0 PPG.
Conclusion: I'm leaning even MORE towards the Under three-quarters of the way thru this. Maybe I/we have underestimated the Raiders defence with all this talk of it being Oakland's O vs Tampa's D?
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Tampa Bay vs O
Respective rankings of Bucs' opponents Yds/G on offence:
19, 26, 13, 18, 14, 23, 10, 31,
2, 31, 12, 19, 14, 28, 5, 29
Playoffs: 8, 10.
Uh-oh. The Bucs have played against 4 Top 10 teams, but most of those teams are just barely in the Top 10. 6 opponents ranked 23rd or worse and a whole lot of very mediocre opponents.
Oakland ranks #1 in this category. Minnesota was #2 and they put up 24 pts on the Bucs. Not crazy about this situation from either a TB or Under standpoint.
Respective rankings of Bucs' opponents PPG on offence:
3, 23, 24, 28, 5, 19, 4, 30,
9, 30, 6, 3, 5, 26, 8, 27
Playoffs: 14, 4
Tampa Bay HAS played some teams that can put points on the board, even if they aren't yardage-eaters. New Orleans ranks up there and hung up 26 and 23 pts respectively on them. Minny's 24 pts is in there as well. However, TB did handle high scoring teams like Atlanta (ranked #5, 6 & 10 PA in their 2 meetings), and Green Bay (rank #6, 7 PA).
Oakland ranks 2nd in this category and appears to have numbers in both offensive comparisons that are similar to the teams that scored well against Tampa Bay.
Conclusion: Again, to no one's surprise, this is the best offence the Bucs have seen all season. If anyone was going to score against Tampa Bay, this would be the team. Still, it seems unlikely (to me anyways) that the Raiders top 24 pts.
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Overall conclusion: The first three sections of these comparisons tend to point towards a Tampa victory, and even more strongly towards the Under. The fourth section contradicts that. These comparisons are almost entirely numerical. Then you've got to decide how much to weigh things that can't be measured numerically - emotion, experience, home field advantage (if you believe Oakland will have a significant advantage), individual matchups, etc.
I could be wrong but I think a play on the Bucs and the Under are in order.
{edit} Ok, now that I've finished writing this all up it's a mile long. Man I really wish I could post spreadsheets here because this probably won't display too well. Hope it's not too hard to follow what all the #'s mean and everything. I know I've got major eye-strain after taking the 2+ hours to hash this all out. Hopefully someone finds it helpful.
==============================================
Oakland vs D
Oakland opponents this year, in order:
vs Sea, @ Pitt, vs Tenn, @ Buff, @ StL, vs SD, @ KC, vs SF,
@ Den, vs NE, @ Ariz, vs NYJ, @ SD, @ Mia, vs Den, vs KC
Playoff games: vs NYJ, vs Tenn
Respective rankings of Raiders' opponents Yds/G against:
28, 7, 10, 15, 13, 30, 32, 14,
6, 23, 29, 24, 30, 3, 6, 32.
Playoffs: 24, 10
Only 5 opponents in the Top 10. 9 opponents ranked 23rd or worse, including 4 ranked 30th or worse!
Tampa Bay is ranked #1 in this category...by a WIDE margin. Averaging 252.8 Yds/G against. 2nd best team (Carolina) allowed 290.4 Yds/G against.
Respective rankings of Raiders' opponents PPG against:
23, 17, 11, 27, 24, 22, 28, 18,
15, 16, 29, 14, 22, 4, 15, 28.
Playoffs: 14, 11
Only 1 Top 10 opponent. 8 opponents ranked 22nd or worse.
Tampa Bay is also ranked #1 in this category at 12.2 PPG. 2nd best team (Philly) was almost 3 PPG worse, at 15.1.
Neat stat I just discovered: Oakland is 13-0 this year when scoring more than 22 pts...but they are also 0-5 when scoring less than 22 pts. In the five losses, the Raiders allowed a minimum of 20 pts in each.
One thing most of the teams that beat Oakland have in common.... good rushing defence. KC is the one exception (ranked 24th). The other teams that beat them: St Louis (14th), San Diego (11th), San Francisco (7th) and Miami (5th). Tampa Bay ranks 6th in this category. However, the Raiders have beaten a number of teams with very good rush defence, including Pittsburgh (1st), Tennessee twice (2nd), Denver twice (4th), and San Diego in their other game against them. I guess the point of that whole paragraph was just that a good run defence has a chance to shut down Oakland...but without a good run D the chances are very slim.
Conclusion: Oakland has seen nothing defensively like these guys all year long. (I know, that's a huge surprise, right?). Raiders could have a lot of difficulty moving the ball and putting points on the board.
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Oakland vs O
Respective rankings of Raiders' opponents Yds/G on offence:
7, 5, 17, 11, 13, 16, 4, 8,
3, 21, 27, 22, 16, 15, 3, 4
Playoffs: 22, 17
The Raiders have played against a lot of teams that can move the ball. 7 Top 10 opponents compared to just 4 opponents ranked 21st or worse. Those 4 teams ranked 21st or worse in this category scored 20, 20, 20 and 10 pts respectively against Oakland. Tampa Bay ranks 24th in this category.
Respective rankings of Raiders' opponents PPG on offence:
16, 8, 13, 11, 24, 20, 1, 14,
7, 10, 29, 15, 20, 12, 7, 1
Playoffs: 15, 13
Raiders have played against a pretty fair mix of high and low-scoring teams. Earlier in the year they would give up high totals to the good offences, but since their 4-game losing streak the Raiders have kept opposing offences in check a bit better. Still not stellar D, but better than early on. There doesn't appear to be much co-relation between these rankings and how many actual points opponents put up against Oakland.
Tampa Bay ranks 18th in this category...in other words, very average compared to what Oakland has seen all year.
Conclusion: Raiders appear to handle all qualities of offence about equally. However, Raiders overall defensive numbers have improved since mid-season. Halfway thru this analysis I am think Under is looking like a reasonable play.
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Tampa Bay vs D
Tampa Bay's opponents this year, in order:
vs NO, @ Balt, vs StL, @ Cin, @ Atl, vs Clev, @ Phil, @ Car,
vs Minn, vs Car, vs GB, @ NO, vs Atl, @ Det, vs Pitt, @ Chi
Playoff games: vs SF, @ Phil
Respective rankings of Bucs' opponents Yds/G against:
27, 22, 13, 17, 20, 21, 4, 2,
26, 2, 12, 27, 20, 31, 7, 25
Playoffs: 14, 4
Only 5 opponents in the Top 10. 9 opponents ranked 21st or worse. These numbers are very similar to the rankings Oakland faced in the first comparison.
So on the whole Tampa has played a lot of teams that surrender more than the league average amount of yards. When facing the top teams from this category TB scored 10, 12, 23, 7 and 27 pts. So it appears that the Bucs have extreme difficulty when facing top D...with one exception...last week's playoff win @ Philly (keep in mind the defensive pts TB scored in that game too).
Oakland is ranked #11 in this category. Sounds funny to say it since the Raiders get very little credit defensively, but is this actually one of the better defensive squads (yards-wise) that the Bucs have gone up against this year??
Respective rankings of Bucs' opponents PPG against:
26, 19, 24, 32, 8, 10, 2, 5,
30, 5, 12, 26, 8, 31, 17, 25
Playoffs: 18, 2
5 Top 10 opponents, but 7 opponents ranked 24th or worse.
Not surprisingly, almost all of the Bucs big offensive performances came against the teams with really bad D in this category. The Bucs have been held below 20 pts 5 times this year, and those occasions were against the teams ranked #'s 10, 2, 5, 17 and 25. Only twice did the Bucs score 20 or more vs a Top 10 team - 20 pts vs #8 Atlanta, and 27 pts vs #2 ranked Philly in last week's playoff game.
Oakland is (maybe surprisingly) ranked #6 in this category at 19.0 PPG.
Conclusion: I'm leaning even MORE towards the Under three-quarters of the way thru this. Maybe I/we have underestimated the Raiders defence with all this talk of it being Oakland's O vs Tampa's D?
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Tampa Bay vs O
Respective rankings of Bucs' opponents Yds/G on offence:
19, 26, 13, 18, 14, 23, 10, 31,
2, 31, 12, 19, 14, 28, 5, 29
Playoffs: 8, 10.
Uh-oh. The Bucs have played against 4 Top 10 teams, but most of those teams are just barely in the Top 10. 6 opponents ranked 23rd or worse and a whole lot of very mediocre opponents.
Oakland ranks #1 in this category. Minnesota was #2 and they put up 24 pts on the Bucs. Not crazy about this situation from either a TB or Under standpoint.
Respective rankings of Bucs' opponents PPG on offence:
3, 23, 24, 28, 5, 19, 4, 30,
9, 30, 6, 3, 5, 26, 8, 27
Playoffs: 14, 4
Tampa Bay HAS played some teams that can put points on the board, even if they aren't yardage-eaters. New Orleans ranks up there and hung up 26 and 23 pts respectively on them. Minny's 24 pts is in there as well. However, TB did handle high scoring teams like Atlanta (ranked #5, 6 & 10 PA in their 2 meetings), and Green Bay (rank #6, 7 PA).
Oakland ranks 2nd in this category and appears to have numbers in both offensive comparisons that are similar to the teams that scored well against Tampa Bay.
Conclusion: Again, to no one's surprise, this is the best offence the Bucs have seen all season. If anyone was going to score against Tampa Bay, this would be the team. Still, it seems unlikely (to me anyways) that the Raiders top 24 pts.
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Overall conclusion: The first three sections of these comparisons tend to point towards a Tampa victory, and even more strongly towards the Under. The fourth section contradicts that. These comparisons are almost entirely numerical. Then you've got to decide how much to weigh things that can't be measured numerically - emotion, experience, home field advantage (if you believe Oakland will have a significant advantage), individual matchups, etc.
I could be wrong but I think a play on the Bucs and the Under are in order.
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