I no longer consider myself an expert at handicapping the NFL but I do know football so I am going to post some thoughts on this game. I am not betting the game, but if I were I think Raiders -3 1/2 is an extremely strong play.
The Raiders team that you are going to see Sunday night bears little or no resemblance to the Raiders team that lost 4 straight games in October. For that reason I am going to ignore what happened during that stretch and consider the Raiders a one loss team, with that loss coming against the Dolphins.
In looking at the way the Dolphins stopped the Raiders, it was simple, but not easy. They played man coverage and they brought heat on Gannon without having to send men. That is basically it. Very simple, but not easy at all.
I guaran-damn-tee that Derrick Brooks is full of shit and that the Bucs will revamp their defensive strategy for this game. They have to, otherwise the Raiders will put up 40. They will try to bring heat on the outside by letting Rice pin back his ears (just as Taylor did with Miami) and try to blow up those garbagey short routes by letting Barber & Co. play tight man the way Madison, Sutain and Fletcher did.
The problem with this, of course, is that Tampa's dominant defense was built on playing arguably the best Cover 2 in the history of the game, or at least of this generation. They have so much spped and so many smart players among their linebackers, safeties and corners that they can zone any offense that tries to go downfield to death. Who the heck knows if Tampa's corners are capable of covering Brown, Rice and Porter on those garbage routes? If they are, the Bucs could easily win. If they are not, watch out.
Obviously the weakness of the Raiders defensively is the running game. Ricky pounded the crap out of that defense but the Bucs have nobody to mirror his play. To be perfectly honest, I don't know exactly what Tampa Bay has in terms of weapons on offense.
When the Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2001, Nolan Dalla commented that the AFC had clearly become the dominant conference. It is hard to argue with that. They have now won 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls and top to bottom the depth of talent far outweighs the NFC's talent pool. I am a person who dislikes the Raiders immensely, but I just cannot find any way to justify picking Tampa.
The Raiders team that you are going to see Sunday night bears little or no resemblance to the Raiders team that lost 4 straight games in October. For that reason I am going to ignore what happened during that stretch and consider the Raiders a one loss team, with that loss coming against the Dolphins.
In looking at the way the Dolphins stopped the Raiders, it was simple, but not easy. They played man coverage and they brought heat on Gannon without having to send men. That is basically it. Very simple, but not easy at all.
I guaran-damn-tee that Derrick Brooks is full of shit and that the Bucs will revamp their defensive strategy for this game. They have to, otherwise the Raiders will put up 40. They will try to bring heat on the outside by letting Rice pin back his ears (just as Taylor did with Miami) and try to blow up those garbagey short routes by letting Barber & Co. play tight man the way Madison, Sutain and Fletcher did.
The problem with this, of course, is that Tampa's dominant defense was built on playing arguably the best Cover 2 in the history of the game, or at least of this generation. They have so much spped and so many smart players among their linebackers, safeties and corners that they can zone any offense that tries to go downfield to death. Who the heck knows if Tampa's corners are capable of covering Brown, Rice and Porter on those garbage routes? If they are, the Bucs could easily win. If they are not, watch out.
Obviously the weakness of the Raiders defensively is the running game. Ricky pounded the crap out of that defense but the Bucs have nobody to mirror his play. To be perfectly honest, I don't know exactly what Tampa Bay has in terms of weapons on offense.
When the Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2001, Nolan Dalla commented that the AFC had clearly become the dominant conference. It is hard to argue with that. They have now won 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls and top to bottom the depth of talent far outweighs the NFC's talent pool. I am a person who dislikes the Raiders immensely, but I just cannot find any way to justify picking Tampa.
