My take on the Hilton Contest as a tool.

[SmashMouth]

Alot of us use the Hilton consensus as a tool. They have been red hot as of late, and some people even think that in the last couple of years lines have moved as a direct result of this consensus. Today I took it one step further, which I'm sure some of you guys have done on your own.
I took a look at the top 45 guys, who's records range from 16-4, or 80%, to 14-6,or 70%. Obviously they cannot stay this hot, noone can. This week they take the following:

Dolphins 19 to 2 over the Pats for a +17 difference.
Redskins 16 to 1 over the titans for a + 15
Falcons 17 to 4 over the Bucs for a +14
Saints 20 to 7 over the Steelers for a +13
Chargers 13 to 2 over the Broncos for a +11

These are the top 5 games based on differential, of the top 45 players so far. Do with them what you will. Would you guys ride them while they are hot, or go contrary, just because they have to come back to earth?

Well before you answer that here are the picks from the bottom 45. These guys records range from 9-11 or 45% down to 3-17 or 15%. These guys for the most part should improve. Or at least all approach that 40 percent clip. This week there top 5 picks based on the same as above are:

Dolphins 15 to 3 over The Pats for a +12
Giants 11 to 3 over the cowboys for a +8
Panthers 13 to 6 over the Cards for a +7
Eagles 14 to 7 over the Jags for a + 7
Ravens 10 to 3 over the Browns for a +7

The top and bottom agree on Miami.
Still analyzing but I'm definitely playing Miami. I have more data for this thread, but I will see if there is any interest.

 

[SmashMouth]

The games that the top 45 and bottom 45 differ on of note are:

Chargers which are a 13-2 selection with the top 45.
Broncos are 13-8 choice with the bottom 45.

I will take the Broncos, because I have to believe the Top 45 are going to cool down. While the bottom are going to warm up at least some of them.

The Eagles are a 14 to 7 choice with the bottom dwellars.
While the Jags are a 8 to 5 choice with the top 45.

I already had played the Jags, now I feel stronger about it slightly.

We'll see what happens

 

[SmashMouth]

I'm going to fade Atlanta, saints , and Redskins. Going contrary against the top 45. I will make a 3 team parlay, and teaser with the teams going against them. Not sure how big yet.

 

[avatar]

Its interesting to me anyways! Appreciate the work you put into this....and hope that you persue it and keep the forum aprised of your thoughts. Good Luck.

 

[SmashMouth]

Will do Avatar!!

 

[kgar2121]

i certainly agree on miami, also using the hilton contest. based on the number of picks for one side and that numbers total percentage of plays on that particular game...this week, out of 108 picks on this game, 86 take miami, for a total of 80%. so far on the year, games that rate at 80% or higher are 5-0.....granted this isnt much of a total games considered, but hey 100% so far....other games im leaning on using this method are

new orleans =68%
washington =75%
atlanta =71%
carolina =68%
baltimore =73%....

not all of these meet the 80% mark, but are somewhere between 68% and up.....


also using a variation of system posted at the beginning of this thread...only i look at the top 20 contestants as opposed to the top 45....

washington 8 picks......tenn 0 =100%
mia 7 new england 1 =87.5%
atl 7 tampa 2 =77%
and
new orleans 9 pitt 3 =75%


take from this what you want.....still dont know what im going to do, outside of miami....

 

[SmashMouth]

I hear you kgar. I follow the same method as you. I'm just trying something different, because they have been so hot, I'm trying to go contrarian.

 

[Pujo21]

Deciphering the Hilton Picks

Deciphering the Hilton Picks

I also look at the numbers a little different: I take the greater Difference in votes "for" less the votes " against".

1 . Miami has 64 more than New England

2. Washington has 48 more than Tennessee.

3. Atlanta has 46 more than Tampa.

4. N.O. has 43 more than Pittsburgh.

5. Baltimore has 40 more than Cleveland.
___________________________________________

Washington strikes me this week alot like The Bengals last week in the hilton top picks.. For the life of me i don't know why The Bengals got so many votes last week.. and i'm saying the same thing to myself this week about Washington !!!!!!

Thanks again Smash Mouth

 

[bej0101]

is there a web site for the hi;ton contest? would you please let us know it? thanks

 

[Pujo21]

bej0101---hilton site

bej0101---hilton site

www.nss.net/hilton.asp

 

[SmashMouth]

Well the bottom 45 out performed the top 45 this week. Not by much. I will continue to monitor this to see if any trends develop. So of my instincts were right, like Miami ,Denver, fading Atlanta, and Saints. Way off on wash though.