I think "theGibber1" hit it right on the head when he said that the public picks 80-90 percent faves. That's a big reason why sportsbooks (legal and illegal) continue to stay open. (Money management is OBVIOUSLY crucial as well........but we should all know that)
Just a few quick stories that I'm sure almost all you guys can relate to------
I'm 29.....I'll be 30 on Sunday (yikes!). I graduated from Indiana University in 1995 as a Journalism major. A friend of mine (a soccer player for the No. 1 ranked team in the country) was a campus bookie (much like the one S.I. did a feature on that same year about the University of Florida student/bookie who raked in all that dough.)
Anyway, I was over his apartment for a few football and basketball Saturdays and Sundays during the year...just hanging out while he answered many calls from "college-aged" gamblers on his cordless. He had a large notebook in front of him and carefully jotted down the plays as he fielded each phone call. When he closed shop (let's say, after the 1 p.m. EST kickoffs went off) I looked at his sheet. Needless to say there were much more minuses then plusses on his sheet (i mean people taking favorites compared to dogs).
He collected BIG every week ( I would have joined him but I was scared I would get kicked out of school.) When I asked him how he made money he simply told me "Inexperienced sports gamblers, particularly in football, almost EXCLUSIVELY take favorites. And when they are down come Sunday or Monday night, they chase BIG with a favorite most of the time."
At the time, I just got the jist of what he was saying. I, myself, rarely gambled back then. (I was too busy chasing the co-eds around). But, now, 7 years later, I completely understand why so many SQUARES, POLYESTERS, WHATEVER your term...............LOSE year in and year out.
Take a look at any ATS database in any sport. Favorites CONSISTANTLY cover slightly less than 50 percent.........while DOGS hit just above 50 percent in pointspread sports year after year. This does NOT prove that betting dogs exclusively will make you money...the 52.38 % win clip needed is just too much to overcome. HOWEVER, this DOES prove that betting favorites the VAST majority of the time against the number will drive you broke in a HURRY.
Another story.....................
During my college summers and through the completion of my Masters degree I worked as a starter at a very exclusive golf club here in Connecticut (in the posh suburbs of New York City). COMPLETELY different types of people from the broke college kids at I.U. Or were they?
These guys at the club had high profile jobs on Wall Street, some were doctors, others lawyers....you guys get the idea.
But everyone's an expert when it comes to football, right? Without fail, every Saturday and Sunday in the fall these rich guys would play a round of golf in the morning, then head straight to the clubhouse for a maddress, look at the New York Post for lines and "expert predictions" (more on that later) and then discuss their "LOCKS" with their buddies. Nobody knew about offshores back then so several of these guys would call a local bookie and say something like "This is 'the Joker', what are the Dolphins favored by today?"
Strike one.
The bookie had these guys by the balls before they even placed a wager. NOT asking for a simple rundown of the entire board is one of the WORST things a sports gambler can do when calling a local. Obviously, the local books, mostly savvy Italians in the tri-state area, would boost the faves by a full point on may occasions.
Yet, these gamblers STILL took the fave. They had just one out!! And their hearts were sold on taking the so-called "better team" come hell or high water. They were FIRM believers that the superior team HAD to be listed on the left side of the betting line in the newpaper. In fact, I'll never forget what one guy told me one day before he called in his BIG pay. He said "Dave, there's a reason why the team on the left is expected to win. And there's a reason why the team on the right (under the underdog column) is expected to lose. Never bet on a team that the experts predict to lose."
Strike two.
Oh.....the New York Post...............i get a kick out of this and I was reminded of it after I read Nolan's write-up about Goldie in New York.
Each Friday (during football season) the Post has a group of 11 "experts" (staff writers, really) who try to pick the pointspread winner of every NFL game. They also re-print the grid of selections in it's popular Sunday edition. From 1995 (the year I came home from Bloomington) until now, I get the Sunday paper. I buy it EXCLUSIVELY to see how AWFUL these prognosticators are. I should have put LARGE amounts of money on their picks simply by just FADING them. No handicapping on my part required! For instance, if the Eagles were -6.5 over the Colts, and 6 people liked the Eagles and 5 of the liked the Colts, I would make a wager on the Colts..............cuz I'm going AGAINST the consensus.
Guys, let me just tell you......I'm KICKING myself for not calling in those plays for the past 7 years! I'd be living in a pricy, split loft in Tribecca right now drinking 5 dollar lattes if I had!
At the end of each week (and year, obviosly) the Post would run the STANDINGS of their 11 handicappers. The BEST capper would hit around 52 percent of his plays for the year, and another guy woud be right around 50 percent...a coin flip essentially. The other 9 experts? They would mostly range from a high of 49 percent to a low of 36 percent. That's YEAR IN amd YEAR OUT! Their cumulatve records (of the 11 cappers) would often total 150 or so games BELOW .500!!
Do you know how i got turned on to this section in the New York Post? It was the guys from the country club. They saw these so-called "experts" and figured they MUST be on the right side of the game.....regardless of whether it was a fave or a dog. So these corporate men would call in their "LOCKS"...with the reassurance that the guys from the New York Post were behind them.
Strike three.
More to come about why I think the VAST majority of inexperienced gamblers take FAVORITES (against the poinstspread) and also OVERS a bit later.
Stag
Just a few quick stories that I'm sure almost all you guys can relate to------
I'm 29.....I'll be 30 on Sunday (yikes!). I graduated from Indiana University in 1995 as a Journalism major. A friend of mine (a soccer player for the No. 1 ranked team in the country) was a campus bookie (much like the one S.I. did a feature on that same year about the University of Florida student/bookie who raked in all that dough.)
Anyway, I was over his apartment for a few football and basketball Saturdays and Sundays during the year...just hanging out while he answered many calls from "college-aged" gamblers on his cordless. He had a large notebook in front of him and carefully jotted down the plays as he fielded each phone call. When he closed shop (let's say, after the 1 p.m. EST kickoffs went off) I looked at his sheet. Needless to say there were much more minuses then plusses on his sheet (i mean people taking favorites compared to dogs).
He collected BIG every week ( I would have joined him but I was scared I would get kicked out of school.) When I asked him how he made money he simply told me "Inexperienced sports gamblers, particularly in football, almost EXCLUSIVELY take favorites. And when they are down come Sunday or Monday night, they chase BIG with a favorite most of the time."
At the time, I just got the jist of what he was saying. I, myself, rarely gambled back then. (I was too busy chasing the co-eds around). But, now, 7 years later, I completely understand why so many SQUARES, POLYESTERS, WHATEVER your term...............LOSE year in and year out.
Take a look at any ATS database in any sport. Favorites CONSISTANTLY cover slightly less than 50 percent.........while DOGS hit just above 50 percent in pointspread sports year after year. This does NOT prove that betting dogs exclusively will make you money...the 52.38 % win clip needed is just too much to overcome. HOWEVER, this DOES prove that betting favorites the VAST majority of the time against the number will drive you broke in a HURRY.
Another story.....................
During my college summers and through the completion of my Masters degree I worked as a starter at a very exclusive golf club here in Connecticut (in the posh suburbs of New York City). COMPLETELY different types of people from the broke college kids at I.U. Or were they?
These guys at the club had high profile jobs on Wall Street, some were doctors, others lawyers....you guys get the idea.
But everyone's an expert when it comes to football, right? Without fail, every Saturday and Sunday in the fall these rich guys would play a round of golf in the morning, then head straight to the clubhouse for a maddress, look at the New York Post for lines and "expert predictions" (more on that later) and then discuss their "LOCKS" with their buddies. Nobody knew about offshores back then so several of these guys would call a local bookie and say something like "This is 'the Joker', what are the Dolphins favored by today?"
Strike one.
The bookie had these guys by the balls before they even placed a wager. NOT asking for a simple rundown of the entire board is one of the WORST things a sports gambler can do when calling a local. Obviously, the local books, mostly savvy Italians in the tri-state area, would boost the faves by a full point on may occasions.
Yet, these gamblers STILL took the fave. They had just one out!! And their hearts were sold on taking the so-called "better team" come hell or high water. They were FIRM believers that the superior team HAD to be listed on the left side of the betting line in the newpaper. In fact, I'll never forget what one guy told me one day before he called in his BIG pay. He said "Dave, there's a reason why the team on the left is expected to win. And there's a reason why the team on the right (under the underdog column) is expected to lose. Never bet on a team that the experts predict to lose."
Strike two.
Oh.....the New York Post...............i get a kick out of this and I was reminded of it after I read Nolan's write-up about Goldie in New York.
Each Friday (during football season) the Post has a group of 11 "experts" (staff writers, really) who try to pick the pointspread winner of every NFL game. They also re-print the grid of selections in it's popular Sunday edition. From 1995 (the year I came home from Bloomington) until now, I get the Sunday paper. I buy it EXCLUSIVELY to see how AWFUL these prognosticators are. I should have put LARGE amounts of money on their picks simply by just FADING them. No handicapping on my part required! For instance, if the Eagles were -6.5 over the Colts, and 6 people liked the Eagles and 5 of the liked the Colts, I would make a wager on the Colts..............cuz I'm going AGAINST the consensus.
Guys, let me just tell you......I'm KICKING myself for not calling in those plays for the past 7 years! I'd be living in a pricy, split loft in Tribecca right now drinking 5 dollar lattes if I had!
At the end of each week (and year, obviosly) the Post would run the STANDINGS of their 11 handicappers. The BEST capper would hit around 52 percent of his plays for the year, and another guy woud be right around 50 percent...a coin flip essentially. The other 9 experts? They would mostly range from a high of 49 percent to a low of 36 percent. That's YEAR IN amd YEAR OUT! Their cumulatve records (of the 11 cappers) would often total 150 or so games BELOW .500!!
Do you know how i got turned on to this section in the New York Post? It was the guys from the country club. They saw these so-called "experts" and figured they MUST be on the right side of the game.....regardless of whether it was a fave or a dog. So these corporate men would call in their "LOCKS"...with the reassurance that the guys from the New York Post were behind them.
Strike three.
More to come about why I think the VAST majority of inexperienced gamblers take FAVORITES (against the poinstspread) and also OVERS a bit later.
Stag
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