My Week 7 Plays

[Junkyarddog]

All lines from the Circa Sportsbook.

Florida + 14 1/2 @ LSU. This line is bound to come down, so we jumped on it now. LSU has certainly found an offense, but who have they played? The win at Texas was solid, but Texas is not a playoff caliber team. Florida just defeated a good Auburn team. an they defeat LSU on the road? Probaby not, but they certainly have enough on the defensive side of the ball to keep the game within two TD's.

Virginia +2 @ Miami. Virginia is coming off a bye week. Their only loss came against Notre Dame. They are 2-0 in ACC play, with wins at Pitt and home to Florida State. They are considered the 2nd best team in the ACC. Miami is 2-3, with one if it's wins coming against Bethume-Cook. They are 0-2 in ACC play with losses at North Carolina and Va. Tech at home last week. Virginia is 7-0 as a dog after a bye week and 5-0 before the Duke game, who they get net week.

Arizona +7 vs Washington. This line is very hard to understand. One has to wonder if people just hear a name and immediately wager on the name. Washington has two conference losses. They face a big look ahead situation hosting Oregon (who is undefeated in conference play) net week in Seattle. Washington has run up the score against teams like Eastern Washington, Hawaii, and BYU, but have been held to 32 points in their two losses. Arizona has won 4 straight games since an opening day loss at Hawaii. They currently lead the Pac 12 South , with a 2-0 record. They get Utah at home. A win here puts them in excellent position to win the pac 12 South. This should be a close game. I will take the home team and 7.

More to come later in the week.

 

[Junkyarddog]

All lines from the Circa Sportsbook.

Florida + 14 1/2 @ LSU. This line is bound to come down, so we jumped on it now. LSU has certainly found an offense, but who have they played? The win at Texas was solid, but Texas is not a playoff caliber team. Florida just defeated a good Auburn team. an they defeat LSU on the road? Probaby not, but they certainly have enough on the defensive side of the ball to keep the game within two TD's.

Virginia +2 @ Miami. Virginia is coming off a bye week. Their only loss came against Notre Dame. They are 2-0 in ACC play, with wins at Pitt and home to Florida State. They are considered the 2nd best team in the ACC. Miami is 2-3, with one if it's wins coming against Bethume-Cook. They are 0-2 in ACC play with losses at North Carolina and Va. Tech at home last week. Virginia is 7-0 as a dog after a bye week and 5-0 before the Duke game, who they get net week.

Arizona +7 vs Washington. This line is very hard to understand. One has to wonder if people just hear a name and immediately wager on the name. Washington has two conference losses. They face a big look ahead situation hosting Oregon (who is undefeated in conference play) net week in Seattle. Washington has run up the score against teams like Eastern Washington, Hawaii, and BYU, but have been held to 32 points in their two losses. Arizona has won 4 straight games since an opening day loss at Hawaii. They currently lead the Pac 12 South , with a 2-0 record. They get Utah at home. A win here puts them in excellent position to win the pac 12 South. This should be a close game. I will take the home team and 7.

More to come later in the week.

Addding:

Texas +11 vs Oklahoma* (Circa). This is just too many point to give to a good team in a rivalry setting. The Total is up to 75 now and that may not be high enough. I think OU wins this game, but all of their regular season meeting in the past 5 years have seen scores closer than 11 points, with Texas winning outright twice.

Wake Forest -6 vs Louisville (Circa). Louisville is a bit of a surprise team at 3-2, but their schedule has been rather weak. This is also a potential look ahead situation for them, hosting Clemson next week. Wake Forest is 5-0, and also 5-0 in their last 5 home games against Louisville. They also are coming off a bye week.

 

[Harrygnyc]

Hey Junkyard,

I still cant believe Virginia is getting 2 points against an awful miami team. Cant figure that one out, but going big on Virginia

 

[Junkyarddog]

I hear you and agree. I think one of the biggest reasons for lines like that is name recognition. Everyone who wagers college football has heard of Miami. They remember the good old days. Miami is playing at home. No one has heard of Virginia. No name recognition at all. Joe Pub see a nice small line and get suckered right into the wager. They totally overlook the fact that Virginia is 4-1, with their only loss coming at Nogre Dame, and Miami is 2-3, with wins against Bethume Cook and Central Michigan. This is why Joe Pub is a loser. Only 12-14% of the players are winners in a one year period.

 

[taoist]

Actually, a majority of the tickets (almost 70%) are on Virginia, yet the line has moved in Miami's direction, which usually means the larger bets/sharp players are on the side of the Hurricanes.... Just sayin' :0003

 

[JustFootball]

I have had the misfortune of watching a few Canes games this year and they truly looked awful. Based on what I saw in previous games, Va would be the obvious pick. But Nkosi Perry seemed transformed in relief and the line worries me.

Feels like the situation screams for Cavs money--Canes on paper should not be favored over most FBS teams. Would not surprise me to see Perry spark a new Canes energy (if he plays like he did against Hokies) and produce a win. Of course, it would also not be a surprise to see Va handle what has been an anemic Canes squad.

Long way of saying, good luck, but would probably pass on this one. The others look good.

 

[Junkyarddog]

Actually, a majority of the tickets (almost 70%) are on Virginia, yet the line has moved in Miami's direction, which usually means the larger bets/sharp players are on the side of the Hurricanes.... Just sayin' :0003

The problem with that is twofold. First, where are you getting your information from? Are their figures from one sportsbook or many? On or off shore? Second, many times, these books simply post a lie if they want action to swing in the other direction. I totally agree that a team who gets less of Joe Pub's action but more money obviously means that the larger wagers are on them, unless some wise guys are playing a "bait and switch" on Joe Pub. This is a Friday Night game, when stunts like this are more likely to happen because of the very small wagering card, but from what I see, the line really has not moved that much. I would not consider mhself with such a small line movement.