NASCAR Phoenix: Cream Rises to the Top
After taking the Easter Holiday off, the NASCAR circuit gets back in action for its first Saturday night race of the young season. This week?s festivities take us to Phoenix International Raceway in Avondale, AZ., a one-mile raceway considered both a short and flat track. The Subway Fresh Fit 600 starts a stretch of six races leading up to the all-star break. The Green Flag is scheduled for about 7:46 PM, and Jimmie Johnson is the obvious favorite to win, having won four times in six races run at PIR since ?07. Of course, he was an overwhelming choice at Martinsville two weeks ago and finished just 9th, with Denny Hamlin instead taking the checkered flag. Perhaps we could see a similar ?upset? this weekend, in which case you?d have to consider Hamlin, Mark Martin, and either of the Busch brothers as legitimate threats to reach Victory Lane.
Denny Hamlin?s win at Martinsville was one of the highlights of the season thus far, as he overcame a lot to accomplish the feat, most notably a late pit decision that put him in 7th place with just five laps remaining. He charged hard through the field on four brand new tires and was aided by a caution flag with just over a lap remaining that allowed him to gain ground on would-be winner Jeff Gordon. Perhaps the biggest obstacle for Hamlin however, was the pain of a torn meniscus and ACL in his left knee, a condition put to the test at Martinsville, a track where braking is as key as any other factor. With the win, and of course the Monday start due to rain, Hamlin had to have his scheduled knee surgery delayed two days. He is still expected to be ready for the Subway Fresh Fit 600K. Incidentally, Joey Logano finished 2nd at Martinsville, followed by Gordon, Ryan Newman, and Martin Truex.
The standings after six races are as they should be, with Jimmie Johnson on top. His three wins lead the circuit, and fittingly, so do the 898 points he has collected. His current lead is 14-points over Greg Biffle, and 16-points over Matt Kenseth. The leader going into Martinsville, Kevin Harvick, is now in 4th, the only other driver within 100 points on the top spot, down 61. If the Chase were to start today, the driver holding down the current 12th spot is Brian Vickers, 164 points removed from Johnson. Next in line are Joey Logano (-170), Carl Edwards (-171), Denny Hamlin (-180), and Kyle Busch (-195). Of course, one of the wildcard qualifiers to making the Chase field is staying within 400-points of the leader, and currently, all of the Top 31 drivers in the standings are within that window. It should be noted though that no driver in the history of the Chase has made the field being outside the Top 12 and its unlikely again this season with the pace at which Johnson is winning races.
The banking at Phoenix International Raceway is 11 degrees in the turns on one end of the track and 9 degrees on the opposite turns. In fact, the two ends of the track are actually quite different and negotiating this difference over the course of 375 miles/laps can often be the deciding factor in who wins. The track length is only 1-mile, so it shares traits with short tracks as well. Typically, the cars that enjoy the most race day success at Phoenix are those that demonstrate good speed throughout the qualifying and practice sessions, so be sure to stay tuned to the TV and the internet in preparation for the race. There are also very few cautions, and when they do arise, normally not more than 1-2 cars are involved. The bottom line of all this?the cream tends to rise to the top at Phoenix. One of the big changes to note for Saturday?s event is that it has been lengthened by 63 miles. The race used to be 312 miles, and race officials figure that the change will mandate strategy alterations, resulting in a more competitive, and exciting finish.
As mentioned earlier, the favorite for Saturday?s race is Jimmie Johnson. Expect him to come in at about 4-1 odds once they are released. His teammates Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin both figure to also be around the 7-1 mark. Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Denny Hamlin are the others that will be running in the role of top contenders. Over the course of the last four years, only four different drivers have combined to win the eight races at PIR, that being Johnson with four trips to Victory Lane, including last November, Martin, the winner last spring, Jeff Gordon, and Kevin Harvick, who swept the 2006 season here. That last point is interesting since Harvick isn?t being given a whole lot of respect by oddsmakers of late, despite having held the series lead for four straight weeks prior to Martinsville.
Jeff Burton and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. are two other drivers that boast multiple wins at Phoenix throughout their careers, each accomplishing the feat twice. Neither has done so in the COT however, and while Burton has averaged a very favorable 9.0 in the six COT starts here, he has not led a single lap in that span. He had a great day at Martinsville leading much of the race before succumbing to a tire going down in the final 50 laps. Junior has actually struggled of late at PIR, averaging a 23.5 finish in his last six visits, though he has led 150 laps. He is a longshot, but potentially worthy of your wagering dollar in matchups. Some of the other drivers that have posted good stats at Phoenix since ?07 include Greg Biffle (9.7 avg. fin), Tony Stewart (11.5 avg. fin., three Top 5?s), and Carl Edwards (14,5 avg., 87 laps led). Incidentally, Johnson owns six Top 5?s in the last six Phoenix starts and has led 631 laps in that span, easily the best numbers of any driver.
Some of the prominent drivers who have struggled at PIR besides Earnhardt, Jr. include Kasey Kahne (24.7 avg. fin.), Ryan Newman (26.0 avg. fin L6), and Brian Vickers (29.0). Between the three of them, they have combined for four DNF?s against just one Top 5 finish. The group of Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Juan Montoya, and David Reutimann have also yet to score a Top 5 finish in the COT, in 24 combined starts. Of the struggling drivers mentioned, only Harvick (4th) and Vickers (12th) are in Chase positions right now, meaning the others need a quick turnaround of their recent struggles at Phoenix to improve their current standing.
One of the other major stories in NASCAR is the new spoiler on the cars, replacing the wing that has been on the COT since its first running in ?07. The spoiler was on at Martinsville and like there, it doesn?t figure to have a major impact on a low-speed, short track like Phoenix. Therefore, I wouldn?t change anything in my handicapping routine. That said, this is always one of the most reliable tracks at which to handicap a race. As I said earlier, the cream typically rises to the top, and the stats, qualifying speeds, and Happy Hours ranks are crucial to knowing which drivers will run well. In fact, if you go back through the six race winners here since ?07, their average starting spot has been 3.2 (all in Top 7), and the average Happy Hour rank has been 3.0 (again, all Top 7). Interestingly, being the first Saturday race, Happy Hour is actually run prior (3:35 PM ET) to Qualifying, which is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET on Friday. One other point to note, being in the evening, qualifying will be done under track conditions similar to Saturday night?s race. The green flag drops on Saturday night at a little after 7:30 PM ET.
After taking the Easter Holiday off, the NASCAR circuit gets back in action for its first Saturday night race of the young season. This week?s festivities take us to Phoenix International Raceway in Avondale, AZ., a one-mile raceway considered both a short and flat track. The Subway Fresh Fit 600 starts a stretch of six races leading up to the all-star break. The Green Flag is scheduled for about 7:46 PM, and Jimmie Johnson is the obvious favorite to win, having won four times in six races run at PIR since ?07. Of course, he was an overwhelming choice at Martinsville two weeks ago and finished just 9th, with Denny Hamlin instead taking the checkered flag. Perhaps we could see a similar ?upset? this weekend, in which case you?d have to consider Hamlin, Mark Martin, and either of the Busch brothers as legitimate threats to reach Victory Lane.
Denny Hamlin?s win at Martinsville was one of the highlights of the season thus far, as he overcame a lot to accomplish the feat, most notably a late pit decision that put him in 7th place with just five laps remaining. He charged hard through the field on four brand new tires and was aided by a caution flag with just over a lap remaining that allowed him to gain ground on would-be winner Jeff Gordon. Perhaps the biggest obstacle for Hamlin however, was the pain of a torn meniscus and ACL in his left knee, a condition put to the test at Martinsville, a track where braking is as key as any other factor. With the win, and of course the Monday start due to rain, Hamlin had to have his scheduled knee surgery delayed two days. He is still expected to be ready for the Subway Fresh Fit 600K. Incidentally, Joey Logano finished 2nd at Martinsville, followed by Gordon, Ryan Newman, and Martin Truex.
The standings after six races are as they should be, with Jimmie Johnson on top. His three wins lead the circuit, and fittingly, so do the 898 points he has collected. His current lead is 14-points over Greg Biffle, and 16-points over Matt Kenseth. The leader going into Martinsville, Kevin Harvick, is now in 4th, the only other driver within 100 points on the top spot, down 61. If the Chase were to start today, the driver holding down the current 12th spot is Brian Vickers, 164 points removed from Johnson. Next in line are Joey Logano (-170), Carl Edwards (-171), Denny Hamlin (-180), and Kyle Busch (-195). Of course, one of the wildcard qualifiers to making the Chase field is staying within 400-points of the leader, and currently, all of the Top 31 drivers in the standings are within that window. It should be noted though that no driver in the history of the Chase has made the field being outside the Top 12 and its unlikely again this season with the pace at which Johnson is winning races.
The banking at Phoenix International Raceway is 11 degrees in the turns on one end of the track and 9 degrees on the opposite turns. In fact, the two ends of the track are actually quite different and negotiating this difference over the course of 375 miles/laps can often be the deciding factor in who wins. The track length is only 1-mile, so it shares traits with short tracks as well. Typically, the cars that enjoy the most race day success at Phoenix are those that demonstrate good speed throughout the qualifying and practice sessions, so be sure to stay tuned to the TV and the internet in preparation for the race. There are also very few cautions, and when they do arise, normally not more than 1-2 cars are involved. The bottom line of all this?the cream tends to rise to the top at Phoenix. One of the big changes to note for Saturday?s event is that it has been lengthened by 63 miles. The race used to be 312 miles, and race officials figure that the change will mandate strategy alterations, resulting in a more competitive, and exciting finish.
As mentioned earlier, the favorite for Saturday?s race is Jimmie Johnson. Expect him to come in at about 4-1 odds once they are released. His teammates Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin both figure to also be around the 7-1 mark. Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Denny Hamlin are the others that will be running in the role of top contenders. Over the course of the last four years, only four different drivers have combined to win the eight races at PIR, that being Johnson with four trips to Victory Lane, including last November, Martin, the winner last spring, Jeff Gordon, and Kevin Harvick, who swept the 2006 season here. That last point is interesting since Harvick isn?t being given a whole lot of respect by oddsmakers of late, despite having held the series lead for four straight weeks prior to Martinsville.
Jeff Burton and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. are two other drivers that boast multiple wins at Phoenix throughout their careers, each accomplishing the feat twice. Neither has done so in the COT however, and while Burton has averaged a very favorable 9.0 in the six COT starts here, he has not led a single lap in that span. He had a great day at Martinsville leading much of the race before succumbing to a tire going down in the final 50 laps. Junior has actually struggled of late at PIR, averaging a 23.5 finish in his last six visits, though he has led 150 laps. He is a longshot, but potentially worthy of your wagering dollar in matchups. Some of the other drivers that have posted good stats at Phoenix since ?07 include Greg Biffle (9.7 avg. fin), Tony Stewart (11.5 avg. fin., three Top 5?s), and Carl Edwards (14,5 avg., 87 laps led). Incidentally, Johnson owns six Top 5?s in the last six Phoenix starts and has led 631 laps in that span, easily the best numbers of any driver.
Some of the prominent drivers who have struggled at PIR besides Earnhardt, Jr. include Kasey Kahne (24.7 avg. fin.), Ryan Newman (26.0 avg. fin L6), and Brian Vickers (29.0). Between the three of them, they have combined for four DNF?s against just one Top 5 finish. The group of Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Juan Montoya, and David Reutimann have also yet to score a Top 5 finish in the COT, in 24 combined starts. Of the struggling drivers mentioned, only Harvick (4th) and Vickers (12th) are in Chase positions right now, meaning the others need a quick turnaround of their recent struggles at Phoenix to improve their current standing.
One of the other major stories in NASCAR is the new spoiler on the cars, replacing the wing that has been on the COT since its first running in ?07. The spoiler was on at Martinsville and like there, it doesn?t figure to have a major impact on a low-speed, short track like Phoenix. Therefore, I wouldn?t change anything in my handicapping routine. That said, this is always one of the most reliable tracks at which to handicap a race. As I said earlier, the cream typically rises to the top, and the stats, qualifying speeds, and Happy Hours ranks are crucial to knowing which drivers will run well. In fact, if you go back through the six race winners here since ?07, their average starting spot has been 3.2 (all in Top 7), and the average Happy Hour rank has been 3.0 (again, all Top 7). Interestingly, being the first Saturday race, Happy Hour is actually run prior (3:35 PM ET) to Qualifying, which is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET on Friday. One other point to note, being in the evening, qualifying will be done under track conditions similar to Saturday night?s race. The green flag drops on Saturday night at a little after 7:30 PM ET.
