By Dan Beaver
Senior Editor
June 23, 2007
The two road races each year are typically easy to handicap as the field can be split into three categories: 1) NASCAR regulars who enjoy road racing and have put the effort into learning how to go fast on these tracks, 2) NASCAR regulars who simply want to survive the weekend with as many points as possible, and 3) road racing specialists that are brought in to run these two events each year.
While it may be a relatively simple task to determine who is going to be strong, most of these drivers are clumped in Tier one, which leaves some hard decisions to be made further down the gird.
Drivers to avoid are simple as well. Stay away from the "Survivors".
Tier One
Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart have dominated the road courses in the past three years and between them have earned five of the last six trophies on the twisty tracks. Stewart holds the edge with three wins, but Gordon has the advantage at Infineon after winning in 2004 and again last year. One of these two drivers should be on your roster and if both of them have the same number of allocations remaining, the easiest way to pick which one will be to flip a coin. While both have been incredibly strong, neither has been perfect and mechanical failures caused Stewart to finish 28th last year and Gordon to finish 33rd in 2005.
Even though Gordon will have to roll off the grid at the back of the pack?after getting slapped with a penalty from NASCAR for altering his fenders?he still has the ability to drive to the front. He should still be considered a favorite for a top-five, but a victory might be a tougher battle.
While Gordon and Stewart are your favorites this week, you may want to choose a dark horse for your second selection to differentiate your roster from the other players. Before those drivers went on their current rampage, Robby Gordon swept the road course victory lanes in 2003. He's lost races just about every way possible since then, but every bad finish on a road course can be explained by misfortune and he hasn't lost any of his strength. If he stays out of trouble, a top 10 is guaranteed.
In an interview with the Associated Press this week, Juan Montoya said he considers himself to be a favorite this weekend at Infineon Raceway. That's a bold comment for a driver with an average finish of 29th in the last eight events, but road courses are run by their own rules. Montoya won the first stock car road race he ever entered at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City in the Busch series and before taking the trophy, he first spun out his teammate Scott Pruett. That showed desire on one hand, but a certain lack of patience on the other, and he needs to remember that the NASCAR Nextel Cup drivers have much more experience using their fenders as weapons than his former F1 buddies.
If you want to expand your horizons by taking a road ringer, Boris Said is your man in Tier One. Typically, these sports car specialists struggle because they are campaigning lightly-funded entries that are outside the top 35 in owner points. Said is outside the top 35 as well, but he is in his own car and the chemistry is going to be great. Last year he finished ninth in this race and with a third at the Glen in 2005, he has a history of success. While he has not yet won in the NASCAR Nextel Cup series, he does have a Craftsman Truck Series and an Elite Southwest trophy to his credit at Infineon, so he knows where victory lane is located.
There really aren't any bad choices in Tier One, but with several drivers head and shoulders above the rest, there isn't any reason to look any further, so the remainder can be avoided.
Tier Two
Tier Two is where it starts to get a little more interesting, because there are no clear cut favorites. Kevin Harvick has the best Fantasy Power Ranking average during the past three years on road courses, and he proved to be capable of winning last August at Watkins Glen International, but he was merely 24th at Infineon in last year's running of this race. Still, that is one of only two finishes outside the top 15 in his career on the twisty tracks, and he swept the top five in 2003, so he is the best alternative you have at this level.
By the numbers, Carl Edwards is the next driver in line. He was a slow starter on the road courses with a 38th- and 19th-place finish during his rookie season. Last year, however, he got the hang of turning in both directions and finished sixth at Infineon and fifth at the Glen. Coming off a morale-boosting victory at Michigan International Speedway last week, he is prepared to keep his momentum going.
Mark Martin is an easy pick to avoid this week. You can't win if you don't start the race, and he is taking the weekend off to turn his Chevy over to Regan Smith. He was on standby to run the No. 24 if Gordon had to scurry back to Charlotte for the birth of his first daughter, but since Ella Sofia Gordon came to earth on Wednesday morning, Martin's services are not needed.
Tier Three
Experience counts on the road courses, and in Tier Three there is not a driver with more laps on the twisty tracks than Ricky Rudd. He has six road course victories spread evenly across Infineon, Watkins Glen and Riverside International Raceway. Notably, his wins have been earned for five different car owners, which suggest that it has been his innate talent that has provided the extra something needed to win. He might be a little rusty, but you don't want to assume that. His last trip to Infineon in 2005 resulted in a second-place finish.
This could be the week that Elliott Sadler gives Ray Evernham something to smile about. Skill trumps power on the road courses, and while it certainly appears that Ray's engines are seriously lacking in horsepower, Sadler enters the weekend with a seven-race top-15 streak on this type of track. Last year, he swept the top 10 with an eighth at Infineon and a seventh at the Glen. In his 16-race road course career he's never cracked the top five, and it is unlikely he will do so this week either, but a solid top-15 is about as good as you'll get from Tier Three this week.
J.J. Yeley really needed a good showing last week, because he is going to stink like a dead fish at Infineon. The one good thing that can be said about his road course record last year was that he was consistent. Unfortunately, he was consistently bad with finishes of 33rd on both courses. That's about what you can expect from him again this year, and with the Joe Gibbs Racing executives telling him to pick up the pace or look for another ride, the pressure is going to be immense. That can be a motivator on another course, but on the road courses, there are 11 turns to mess up, and one misplaced wheel can spell disaster.
Tier Four
Three of the drivers we would have expected to run strong on the road course failed to make the show outright. Paul Menard, A.J. Allmendinger and his teammate Brian Vickers struggled in time trials and have already started the long trip home.
That has left you with some very limited options.
Bill Elliott is determined to avoid using his past champion's provisional to get into the show, and he proved how strong he can be by qualifying in the top 10. After his lap on the track, he said that his lack of recent experience on the road courses might actually have worked in his favor because he didn't have to unlearn any habits from the old-style car. If he returns to basics, that will be good news for fantasy owners. Elliott won his first NASCAR Nextel Cup race back in 1983 at Riverside International Raceway and the last time he was here at Infineon in 2003, he finished fourth.
Jeff Green has always liked the road courses and he earned a top-five at Infineon in 2002 in his second attempt on this type of track after starting deep in the field in 33rd. He hasn't finished that well since, but he also hasn't fallen off the lead lap. He may not earn maximum points this week, but in nine previous road course races, he's finished in the top 20 five times
Senior Editor
June 23, 2007
The two road races each year are typically easy to handicap as the field can be split into three categories: 1) NASCAR regulars who enjoy road racing and have put the effort into learning how to go fast on these tracks, 2) NASCAR regulars who simply want to survive the weekend with as many points as possible, and 3) road racing specialists that are brought in to run these two events each year.
While it may be a relatively simple task to determine who is going to be strong, most of these drivers are clumped in Tier one, which leaves some hard decisions to be made further down the gird.
Drivers to avoid are simple as well. Stay away from the "Survivors".
Tier One
Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart have dominated the road courses in the past three years and between them have earned five of the last six trophies on the twisty tracks. Stewart holds the edge with three wins, but Gordon has the advantage at Infineon after winning in 2004 and again last year. One of these two drivers should be on your roster and if both of them have the same number of allocations remaining, the easiest way to pick which one will be to flip a coin. While both have been incredibly strong, neither has been perfect and mechanical failures caused Stewart to finish 28th last year and Gordon to finish 33rd in 2005.
Even though Gordon will have to roll off the grid at the back of the pack?after getting slapped with a penalty from NASCAR for altering his fenders?he still has the ability to drive to the front. He should still be considered a favorite for a top-five, but a victory might be a tougher battle.
While Gordon and Stewart are your favorites this week, you may want to choose a dark horse for your second selection to differentiate your roster from the other players. Before those drivers went on their current rampage, Robby Gordon swept the road course victory lanes in 2003. He's lost races just about every way possible since then, but every bad finish on a road course can be explained by misfortune and he hasn't lost any of his strength. If he stays out of trouble, a top 10 is guaranteed.
In an interview with the Associated Press this week, Juan Montoya said he considers himself to be a favorite this weekend at Infineon Raceway. That's a bold comment for a driver with an average finish of 29th in the last eight events, but road courses are run by their own rules. Montoya won the first stock car road race he ever entered at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City in the Busch series and before taking the trophy, he first spun out his teammate Scott Pruett. That showed desire on one hand, but a certain lack of patience on the other, and he needs to remember that the NASCAR Nextel Cup drivers have much more experience using their fenders as weapons than his former F1 buddies.
If you want to expand your horizons by taking a road ringer, Boris Said is your man in Tier One. Typically, these sports car specialists struggle because they are campaigning lightly-funded entries that are outside the top 35 in owner points. Said is outside the top 35 as well, but he is in his own car and the chemistry is going to be great. Last year he finished ninth in this race and with a third at the Glen in 2005, he has a history of success. While he has not yet won in the NASCAR Nextel Cup series, he does have a Craftsman Truck Series and an Elite Southwest trophy to his credit at Infineon, so he knows where victory lane is located.
There really aren't any bad choices in Tier One, but with several drivers head and shoulders above the rest, there isn't any reason to look any further, so the remainder can be avoided.
Tier Two
Tier Two is where it starts to get a little more interesting, because there are no clear cut favorites. Kevin Harvick has the best Fantasy Power Ranking average during the past three years on road courses, and he proved to be capable of winning last August at Watkins Glen International, but he was merely 24th at Infineon in last year's running of this race. Still, that is one of only two finishes outside the top 15 in his career on the twisty tracks, and he swept the top five in 2003, so he is the best alternative you have at this level.
By the numbers, Carl Edwards is the next driver in line. He was a slow starter on the road courses with a 38th- and 19th-place finish during his rookie season. Last year, however, he got the hang of turning in both directions and finished sixth at Infineon and fifth at the Glen. Coming off a morale-boosting victory at Michigan International Speedway last week, he is prepared to keep his momentum going.
Mark Martin is an easy pick to avoid this week. You can't win if you don't start the race, and he is taking the weekend off to turn his Chevy over to Regan Smith. He was on standby to run the No. 24 if Gordon had to scurry back to Charlotte for the birth of his first daughter, but since Ella Sofia Gordon came to earth on Wednesday morning, Martin's services are not needed.
Tier Three
Experience counts on the road courses, and in Tier Three there is not a driver with more laps on the twisty tracks than Ricky Rudd. He has six road course victories spread evenly across Infineon, Watkins Glen and Riverside International Raceway. Notably, his wins have been earned for five different car owners, which suggest that it has been his innate talent that has provided the extra something needed to win. He might be a little rusty, but you don't want to assume that. His last trip to Infineon in 2005 resulted in a second-place finish.
This could be the week that Elliott Sadler gives Ray Evernham something to smile about. Skill trumps power on the road courses, and while it certainly appears that Ray's engines are seriously lacking in horsepower, Sadler enters the weekend with a seven-race top-15 streak on this type of track. Last year, he swept the top 10 with an eighth at Infineon and a seventh at the Glen. In his 16-race road course career he's never cracked the top five, and it is unlikely he will do so this week either, but a solid top-15 is about as good as you'll get from Tier Three this week.
J.J. Yeley really needed a good showing last week, because he is going to stink like a dead fish at Infineon. The one good thing that can be said about his road course record last year was that he was consistent. Unfortunately, he was consistently bad with finishes of 33rd on both courses. That's about what you can expect from him again this year, and with the Joe Gibbs Racing executives telling him to pick up the pace or look for another ride, the pressure is going to be immense. That can be a motivator on another course, but on the road courses, there are 11 turns to mess up, and one misplaced wheel can spell disaster.
Tier Four
Three of the drivers we would have expected to run strong on the road course failed to make the show outright. Paul Menard, A.J. Allmendinger and his teammate Brian Vickers struggled in time trials and have already started the long trip home.
That has left you with some very limited options.
Bill Elliott is determined to avoid using his past champion's provisional to get into the show, and he proved how strong he can be by qualifying in the top 10. After his lap on the track, he said that his lack of recent experience on the road courses might actually have worked in his favor because he didn't have to unlearn any habits from the old-style car. If he returns to basics, that will be good news for fantasy owners. Elliott won his first NASCAR Nextel Cup race back in 1983 at Riverside International Raceway and the last time he was here at Infineon in 2003, he finished fourth.
Jeff Green has always liked the road courses and he earned a top-five at Infineon in 2002 in his second attempt on this type of track after starting deep in the field in 33rd. He hasn't finished that well since, but he also hasn't fallen off the lead lap. He may not earn maximum points this week, but in nine previous road course races, he's finished in the top 20 five times
