NBA MON 02012010-Early Thoughts and Value Hunting

[BillyBatts]

Getting the thread started.

At first glance, liking Home teams laying small numbers or right around pick em'
Grizz, Blazers, Hornets.

Anyone liking anything yet??:0corn

 

[barts185]

Getting the thread started.

At first glance, liking Home teams laying small numbers or right around pick em'
Grizz, Blazers, Hornets.

Anyone liking anything yet??:0corn

The start of a new month - and (hopefully) more profits.

A lot of games seemed to land close to / on the number the last few days. At least the ones I was on the wrong side of (although I will admit to getting a push on yesterday's IND/TOR under)

Starting the new month off with


WAS +5


To say that BOS plays down to the level of their competition would be an understatement. They have since last season. And after a loss they seem to think they can sleepwalk through a game against mediocre teams.


Good Luck,
Bart

 

[BillyBatts]

Thoughts??

Thoughts??

What does everyone think about the Bucks getting 6.5 tonight at Miami? Bucks were favored last game by 4 the other night and won by 11, and now its 6.5 the other way? Do home courts mean a 10.5 pt swing?? :shrug:

Think the oddsmakers may have adjusted too much for the "revenge" factor. Also, Miami is coming home from a 3 game road trip, only to have to turn around and go play Boston on Tue night for another 3 game trip. Might have thier minds elsewhere, like dealing with home and personal affairs?? Just something to ponder.

 

[Ools]

Celts -4.5

Boston is horrible to bet on this year: 18-26-1 ats, but on the road a reasonable 12-12. There only sweet spot betting them as a favorite is 3-1 with the line at 4 - 4.5! they have favorable matchups vs Wash as well. Last season they went 3-0 ats vs Wash, but in this years only matchup they squeaked it out by 2 points in washington ...and the line was 7.5!! So a prepared team for the rematch. So why only 4.5 this time....thank the Lakers for that. I'll take the discount and play Boston here vs Wash team that has covered only 1 of last 5 and is 9-15 ats at home.

 

[BillyBatts]

Celts -4.5

Boston is horrible to bet on this year: 18-26-1 ats, but on the road a reasonable 12-12. There only sweet spot betting them as a favorite is 3-1 with the line at 4 - 4.5! they have favorable matchups vs Wash as well. Last season they went 3-0 ats vs Wash, but in this years only matchup they squeaked it out by 2 points in washington ...and the line was 7.5!! So a prepared team for the rematch. So why only 4.5 this time....thank the Lakers for that. I'll take the discount and play Boston here vs Wash team that has covered only 1 of last 5 and is 9-15 ats at home.

I'm staying FAR away from this game. Boston is terrible on the 2nd of a b2b, could be flat after that game yesterday and don't see them too pumped to be playing at Washington tonight. Wizzards seem to get up at home for elite teams, and could see Boston squeaking out a win, but by how much? If forced to bet this one, I would probably go with washington, but best of luck whatever you go with. :shrug:



ALSO :director:

Kings have beaten the Nuggets outright in both thier games this year. Could someone please query where that has happened and the winning team is getting double digits in the 3rd game?? Thanks in advance :toast:

 

[JBrilman]

MONDAY EARLY LEANS

MONDAY EARLY LEANS

Well guys it was a very profitable weekend betting sports with a HUGE Friday night and would have had another HUGE day yesterday if I got the lines at the right time. Pushed with Lakers and Orlando and won with Minny, but had a big 2 a 3 teamer that turned into straight bets on Minny. Man it could have been a +2500 day if I get the lines at the right time.

Only kink for the weekend is the wife and I had a disgusting session of blackjack on Saturday night to give back most of this months winnings.:nono:

Lesson learned the hard way.:violin:

Onto today's games!

I said this last week in a thread if anyone remembers. "Lakers will cover the rest of this road trip" Well I am sticking to that statement!!!


LAL -1.5 - Memphis has grown up before our eyes no doubt about it and those in this thread have made a pretty penny with them in January, but
I like my chances against Memphis. Most will say Lakers are on a long road trip and playing a B2B against a good Memphis team.

Lakers last year on this same trip went 8-0 and on this trip they easily could have. Tough close loss to CLE as a dog and another loss at the buzzer basically to Toronto. No they would not have covered in Toronto but they would have won. I like them to finish the trip strong with a win in Memphis and a cover.

Remember there are a few motivational factors here. Kobe loves to win on the road and will want to end the trip strong. Gasol will NOT want to lose to his brother, has anyone played a sport against there sibling??? Bynum got hurt in Memphis 2x so I think he wants to come have a good game.

The Lakes have the size inside to contain Randolph/Gasol and Lakers have a big edge at PG with Fisher/Famar/Brown. Only Kobe and Pao played over 40 yesterday and most the team around 30 minutes. All of Memphis starters except Conley played 45 on Saturday in the loss which had to be a draining loss. I think both teams will be sluggish in the FH and pace will pick up in the 2nd half. Total is too close to call but like the Lakes to pull out the cover.

There is no handicapping Kobe's will to win and -1.5 is ONE possession people!

More plays to come

 

[JBrilman]

Celts -4.5

Boston is horrible to bet on this year: 18-26-1 ats, but on the road a reasonable 12-12. There only sweet spot betting them as a favorite is 3-1 with the line at 4 - 4.5! they have favorable matchups vs Wash as well. Last season they went 3-0 ats vs Wash, but in this years only matchup they squeaked it out by 2 points in washington ...and the line was 7.5!! So a prepared team for the rematch. So why only 4.5 this time....thank the Lakers for that. I'll take the discount and play Boston here vs Wash team that has covered only 1 of last 5 and is 9-15 ats at home.

This is my 2nd play for today. I like them to respond to yesterdays loss. Pierce had foul trouble and sat the entire first quarter basically. One of the only reasons Lakers jumped out to that big lead. More to follow on this game. Also looking at Charlotte. I think they finish out the trip with 2 wins this game and the Lakers on Wednesday.

Take the Lakes today and fade them Wednesday!

 

[BillyBatts]

WOW

WOW

This is my 2nd play for today. I like them to respond to yesterdays loss. Pierce had foul trouble and sat the entire first quarter basically. One of the only reasons Lakers jumped out to that big lead. More to follow on this game. Also looking at Charlotte. I think they finish out the trip with 2 wins this game and the Lakers on Wednesday.

Take the Lakes today and fade them Wednesday!

We are on opposite sides of the fence on almost every game. :scared

Hate when that happens. BOL with your plays though. Maybe you may talk me out of taking a loser. :box2:

 

[Lumi]

The Milwaukee Bucks are 13-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season, winning by almost two (1.8) points per contest.

Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.

All games in this series since 1996
MIAMI is 25-20 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE since 1996
MIAMI is 30-18 straight up against MILWAUKEE since 1996
27 of 46 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996

Games over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons





All games played at MIAMI since 1996
MIAMI is 12-10 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE since 1996
MIAMI is 16-7 straight up against MILWAUKEE since 1996
12 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996

Games played at MIAMI over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-2 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[barts185]

ALSO :director:

Kings have beaten the Nuggets outright in both thier games this year. Could someone please query where that has happened and the winning team is getting double digits in the 3rd game?? Thanks in advance :toast:

over the whole database

P:W and PP:W and P:season=season and PP:season=season and line>=10

SU: 7-54 (-14.5)
ATS: 18-42-1 (-3.0) avg line: 11.5
O/U: 31-26-4 (0.5) avg total: 193.0


since 2005

P:W and PP:W and P:season=season and PP:season=season and line>=10 and season>=2005


SU: 4-10 (-9.4)
ATS: 7-6-1 (2.2) avg line: 11.6
O/U: 4-9-1 (-1.0) avg total: 198.9

 

[Lumi]

Key Player Injuries

MILWAUKEE
[G] 01/11/2010 - Michael Redd out for season ( Knee )
MIAMI
[F] 01/30/2010 - Michael Beasley probable Monday vs Milwaukee ( Knee )
[G] 01/30/2010 - Mario Chalmers "?" Monday vs Milwaukee ( Finger )

 

[BillyBatts]

Another game

Another game

Just like yesterday, when Philly and NJ had played 11 straight unders, the Bobs and Blazers have each went over thier last 6 games a piece for a combined 12 in a row!!! :scared

Over is 7-1 in POR last 8 games as a home favorite.
Over is 11-2 in POR last 13 Mon. games.
Over is 7-2 in POR last 9 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-0 in Bobcats last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game
Over is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Over is 8-2 in Trail Blazers last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.


I have this game capped at 207, thier last 12 have went over at a combined score of 195, and the total opened at 189.5??? What am I missing?? :shrug:

 

[JBrilman]

We are on opposite sides of the fence on almost every game. :scared

Hate when that happens. BOL with your plays though. Maybe you may talk me out of taking a loser. :box2:

Don't let me talk you out of your plays. I am going more by my gut on these plays and less by the numbers.

I think Lakes want to finish strong along with some other motivating factors, I like Boston to bounce back from a touch home loss, I like most of what I saw yesterday with this team and is just getting healthy. Not to mention how fucking putrid Washington is.

With Charlotte I think the Blazers were lucky to cover against Hou on Friday and had a once in a lifetime performance on Saturday by Miller to win the game and IN overtime and both were against WEAK home teams like Houston and Dallas. Charlotte since integrating Jackson has become a tough opponent EVEN on the road. They are getting better with every game and really playing as a unit. Not to mention a little payback for one of the few losses they have at home this year.

I think the signs of Roy not being there are finally showing going 2-4 in their last 6 games. They are not that tough at home without Roy as there were not even favored against Utah and lost as favorites to NO. Also lean over, in Charlotte's last 6 wins they have not scored less than 103.

 

[Lumi]

Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.

All games in this series since 1996
DENVER is 23-23 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO since 1996
SACRAMENTO is 33-18 straight up against DENVER since 1996
25 of 49 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996

Games over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-4 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-4 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons





All games played at DENVER since 1996
DENVER is 13-9 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO since 1996
DENVER is 14-10 straight up against SACRAMENTO since 1996
11 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996

Games played at DENVER over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons



Key Player Injuries

SACRAMENTO
[G] 10/09/2009 - Francisco Garcia out indefinitely ( Forearm )
DENVER
[F] 01/30/2010 - Carmelo Anthony is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. San Antonio ( Ankle )

 

[BillyBatts]

Thanks for the info

Thanks for the info

over the whole database

P:W and PP:W and P:season=season and PP:season=season and line>=10

SU: 7-54 (-14.5)
ATS: 18-42-1 (-3.0) avg line: 11.5
O/U: 31-26-4 (0.5) avg total: 193.0


since 2005

P:W and PP:W and P:season=season and PP:season=season and line>=10 and season>=2005


SU: 4-10 (-9.4)
ATS: 7-6-1 (2.2) avg line: 11.6
O/U: 4-9-1 (-1.0) avg total: 198.9

Thanks, but would these stats be for the Winning team (Kings) or the losers of 2 straight (Nuggets)?
Sorry

 

[JBrilman]

Bart,

I was looking at Denver, Chauncy is playing out of his mind and in the interview yesterday was VERY excited to be getting MELO back tonight.

So is this saying the team getting DD has covered only 18 times?

 

[JBrilman]

Just like yesterday, when Philly and NJ had played 11 straight unders, the Bobs and Blazers have each went over thier last 6 games a piece for a combined 12 in a row!!! :scared




I have this game capped at 207, thier last 12 have went over at a combined score of 195, and the total opened at 189.5??? What am I missing?? :shrug:

AGREE completely I think this game FLYS over the #

 

[Ools]

I'm staying FAR away from this game. Boston is terrible on the 2nd of a b2b, could be flat after that game yesterday and don't see them too pumped to be playing at Washington tonight. Wizzards seem to get up at home for elite teams, and could see Boston squeaking out a win, but by how much? If forced to bet this one, I would probably go with washington, but best of luck whatever you go with. :shrug:



ALSO :director:

Kings have beaten the Nuggets outright in both thier games this year. Could someone please query where that has happened and the winning team is getting double digits in the 3rd game?? Thanks in advance :toast:

Washington is only 5-8 ats at home vs +.500 teams...I have to follow that with a negative trend on Celts who are just 3-8 ats on road vs >.500 teams. But as said earlier this spread seems to be the sweet spot for them. But in all reality this one is on Doc Rivers...he needs to get this ship rited with bigger games later in week (mia and orl) and to make sure this team can respond to a tough loss. He and the vetran trio will use this travel time to get thing going in the right direction. Add in that last time they played Arenas was the matchup they struggled with (25 points) and now you discount the line by 3 points? I like the risk/reward here.

 

[BillyBatts]

Capped totals

Capped totals

Totals I have capped. Mine in BOLD. Tread lightly, sysyem plays 1-3 yesterday.


Bos-Wash 189 191 No lean
Mil-Mia 189 188 No lean
LaL-Mem 197.5 205.5 System play under
Pho-N.O. 222 212.5 System play over
Sac-Den 198.5 211 System play under
Dal-Uta 207 199 Sytem play Over
Cha-Port 207 189.5 System play over (This is only 2nd game where my number has been 15+ pts off. The 1st was yesterday with Raps under, and it went ovver, granted only by a point. Maybe Vegas is telling us under here???)


Have some plays shortly. :burnout

 

[40seven]

Lots of action

Lots of action

Days like today remind me of why we used to look for the


POD

The one play that was the best:nono: .

I like to look for value, while I like to bet games, where is the value?

Yesterday was awesome when you capped the Nuggets Spurs game and with the Under edge in that game and when we went Under in Detroit seeing the liklihood of a continued trend in both cases against the grain of the public

If we are hunting for value there is little VALUE in the Lakers game for sure. I am unsure the Wizards are EVER a value play.

I see potential value in the Hornets game. I am sure there are others but we need to work together to get the GEM

Thanks for letting we rant