NBA SUN 032809 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

axp59

axp59

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Hey gang,

I wanted to post this early since I've got a busy weekend ahead of me.
You are well aware that this week has got me second guessing myself. It happens. I was in need of some counsel so I turned to an old friend of my mentor. I told him of my quandary and he laughed. After some small talk, he told me he can't guarantees winners; of course I knew this but he had to say it anyway. He did offer to give me an idea of where he thought the 'smart' money planned on going before the lines were published. Any edge is good enough for me. He told me that he thought the smart side was planing on going with DEN early on SAT and possibly NY/CHA U. I took note and what do you know: the DEN side got hit pretty hard when the number was released @-12 but has settled since and the NY/CHA under looks like it's getting some play.

FWIW:

You guys that know me know I don't make any extravagant claims or hold myself above any others. I just want to give you guys what he gave me for SUN so when the numbers come out, it may just give us that little edge.

FOR SUN: he gave me...

Side: watch NJ primarily, maybe PHI
Totals: watch OKC/BOS O, DAL/CLE U & SAS/NOH U

I pushed a little bit and asked the one play where he thought the money was going to land for SUN and he thought it was going to be NJ.

I'm still going to do my normal routine but I thought this would help even if just a little bit. Please take this FWIW since there are no locks in our business.

BOLTA
 
Last edited:
PickNPop

PickNPop

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axp59 said:
FOR SUN: he gave me...

Side: watch NJ primarily, maybe PHI
Totals: watch OKC/BOS O, DAL/CLE U & SAS/NOH U

BOLTA
Click to expand...


The SA/NO total opened at 178.5 and is dropping already! :scared

Thanks for the info.
 
axp59

axp59

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Oct 8, 2008
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axp59 said:
He told me that he thought the smart side was planing on going with DEN early on SAT and possibly NY/CHA U.
Click to expand...

Man, I think Cappy is still on top of his game. Good for him. I'm not going to abuse it but i wish he had email ;) I'd love to send him a box of cigars but he'll just yell at me. LOL I love the older guys!
 
C

Crockie

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238 points @ Phoenix - Sacramento :rolleyes: That's a lot of points. Phoenix has tired legs after the overtime against Utah, it's their 3rd road game in a row and they can't go so fast... And Sacramento will score 120 points against Phoenix? I don't think so :violin: I think it'll be max. 230 points :shrug:
 
axp59

axp59

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Crockie said:
238 points @ Phoenix - Sacramento :rolleyes: That's a lot of points. Phoenix has tired legs after the overtime against Utah, it's their 3rd road game in a row and they can't go so fast... And Sacramento will score 120 points against Phoenix? I don't think so :violin: I think it'll be max. 230 points :shrug:
Click to expand...

I have that capped at 229 with healthy legs...nice looking for under here. Agreed. :cool:
 
C

Crockie

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very nice :toast: Perhaps the total will rise like Phoenix-Golden State some days ago. Perhaps the public likes the over?

Only the stats makes me a little confuse :violin:

Over is 5-0 in Suns last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Over is 4-0 in Suns last 4 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.
Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 road games.
Over is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a home underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 4-1 in Kings last 5 Sunday games.
Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 vs. Western Conference.
 
M

mpnyc76

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Mar 24, 2009
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see Ax, just post the plays and then discuss - it prevents second guessing. congrats on 2 and 0 saturday - here's to recouping even more on sunday
 
axp59

axp59

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Oct 8, 2008
3,012
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Taxachusetts
Crockie said:
very nice :toast: Perhaps the total will rise like Phoenix-Golden State some days ago. Perhaps the public likes the over?

Only the stats makes me a little confuse :violin:

Over is 5-0 in Suns last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Over is 4-0 in Suns last 4 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.
Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 road games.
Over is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a home underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 4-1 in Kings last 5 Sunday games.
Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Click to expand...

Looks like I'm going to stay away from this...I think there are other options that doesn't include these kind of trends
 
PickNPop

PickNPop

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Mar 18, 2009
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axp59 said:
I have that capped at 229 with healthy legs...nice looking for under here. Agreed. :cool:
Click to expand...

It's one thing to play at a fast pace, but it's another to possess the personnel to do so. Bluntly, Sacremento does not have the necessary firepower to put up their end of the bargain. I'd also think that the Suns will feed Shaq everytime he's on the floor. One look at the roster and he'll be salivating abusing the likes of Hawes, Thompson and Booth.
 
clkclass

clkclass

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Forum Member
Mar 18, 2009
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axp59 said:
Hey gang,

I wanted to post this early since I've got a busy weekend ahead of me.
You are well aware that this week has got me second guessing myself. It happens. I was in need of some counsel so I turned to an old friend of my mentor. I told him of my quandary and he laughed. After some small talk, he told me he can't guarantees winners; of course I knew this but he had to say it anyway. He did offer to give me an idea of where he thought the 'smart' money planned on going before the lines were published. Any edge is good enough for me. He told me that he thought the smart side was planing on going with DEN early on SAT and possibly NY/CHA U. I took note and what do you know: the DEN side got hit pretty hard when the number was released @-12 but has settled since and the NY/CHA under looks like it's getting some play.

FWIW:

You guys that know me know I don't make any extravagant claims or hold myself above any others. I just want to give you guys what he gave me for SUN so when the numbers come out, it may just give us that little edge.

FOR SUN: he gave me...

Side: watch NJ primarily, maybe PHI
Totals: watch OKC/BOS O, DAL/CLE U & SAS/NOH U

I pushed a little bit and asked the one play where he thought the money was going to land for SUN and he thought it was going to be NJ.

I'm still going to do my normal routine but I thought this would help even if just a little bit. Please take this FWIW since there are no locks in our business.

BOLTA
Click to expand...
AX great to see you back, miss you at the WINDOW!! I missed a 8 team parley believe it or not on GS +12 :00hour
Lets get them
 
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