NBA THURSDAY 042309 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)
- Thread starter JBrilman
- Start date
I'm going to work this angle this afternoon. What's different between BOS/CHI this year and BOS/ATL last year. Last year, this kind of talk sprung up mid-series. Since CHI took the first and almost took the 2nd, the talk started early this year. The obvious is not what i'm looking for. I'm also looking at this as team vs team. I don't care about Ray or Rose or Paul or Ben. Teams that reach the playoffs achieve synergy. If the whole is indeed greater than the sum of its part, logic dictates that you ask where the 'extra' comes from. That 'extra' is the essence of team. Can the aging, injured, dismissed by the public Celtics team go into CHI and beat the young and confident hometown team.
The answer to this game is out there. The NBA is an old league. There's been many situations like this. Forget the trends, look back on your notes. You'll see the same questions you're asking now.
"The heavy fav isn't looking good in this series."
"This young team stole one and they're not afraid anymore."
I don't have a side of course because I don't want to sway anyone on my action. Can't trust a homer to be completely objective. You have both types right here in BOS. There are some that's already packed up for the summer and there are die-hards that can't see anything but a C's V. Note this game and put it away. It'll come in handy, again, in the near future.
BOL
The answer to this game is out there. The NBA is an old league. There's been many situations like this. Forget the trends, look back on your notes. You'll see the same questions you're asking now.
"The heavy fav isn't looking good in this series."
"This young team stole one and they're not afraid anymore."
I don't have a side of course because I don't want to sway anyone on my action. Can't trust a homer to be completely objective. You have both types right here in BOS. There are some that's already packed up for the summer and there are die-hards that can't see anything but a C's V. Note this game and put it away. It'll come in handy, again, in the near future.
BOL
Besides the fact that the Jazz are at home, why des it seem like most people feel they will win tonight?? Any ideas guys??
- Mar 22, 2009
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz - 10:30pm ET on TNT - Lakers lead series 2-0
The scene shifts to Utah where the Jazz are one of the best home teams in the league (33-8). While the Lakers beat the Jazz by an average 11.5 points through two, in both cases LA lost double-digit leads and let Utah hang around with a chance to win. Can the Jazz extend the series to at least five games with a win on Thursday?
Utah did get some good news on Tuesday as Mehmet Okur said he sore hamstring now feels near 80%. Okur missed both game in Los Angeles and is a crucial part of the Jazz' offensive attack. Not only does Mehmet have the size but his outside shot is crucial to Utah's spacing. His status is still up in the air but if he can go, it could be a game changer . . .
Regardless, the Jazz can't let a team hit 18 of their first 21 shots as LA did in Game 2. If the Utah wants to gain any traction in this series, they need to find a way to slow down the Laker offense.
Coach Jerry Sloan and power forward Carlos Boozer were both happy the team climbed back into the game after the onslaught. They just fell short after with a turnover or bad shot attempt.
Meanwhile Coach Phil Jackson wondered if role players like Trevor Ariza and Shannon Brown will be hit shots in Utah like they have in LA. Together they converted 11 of 13 attempts. That's got to fall . . .
Utah will get more fav calls today & will have to limit lakers off poss.
Lakers will be def minded too.
That supports a very good trend I have
Take UNDER for the team total when a team scores more than 100+ pts in two st games.
It maybe close but I think I am on right side here.
UNDER 107.5 lakers Team Total.--- 5 Units
checking on bos -chi team totals
The scene shifts to Utah where the Jazz are one of the best home teams in the league (33-8). While the Lakers beat the Jazz by an average 11.5 points through two, in both cases LA lost double-digit leads and let Utah hang around with a chance to win. Can the Jazz extend the series to at least five games with a win on Thursday?
Utah did get some good news on Tuesday as Mehmet Okur said he sore hamstring now feels near 80%. Okur missed both game in Los Angeles and is a crucial part of the Jazz' offensive attack. Not only does Mehmet have the size but his outside shot is crucial to Utah's spacing. His status is still up in the air but if he can go, it could be a game changer . . .
Regardless, the Jazz can't let a team hit 18 of their first 21 shots as LA did in Game 2. If the Utah wants to gain any traction in this series, they need to find a way to slow down the Laker offense.
Coach Jerry Sloan and power forward Carlos Boozer were both happy the team climbed back into the game after the onslaught. They just fell short after with a turnover or bad shot attempt.
Meanwhile Coach Phil Jackson wondered if role players like Trevor Ariza and Shannon Brown will be hit shots in Utah like they have in LA. Together they converted 11 of 13 attempts. That's got to fall . . .
Utah will get more fav calls today & will have to limit lakers off poss.
Lakers will be def minded too.
That supports a very good trend I have
Take UNDER for the team total when a team scores more than 100+ pts in two st games.
It maybe close but I think I am on right side here.
UNDER 107.5 lakers Team Total.--- 5 Units
checking on bos -chi team totals
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CHI/BOS
The last game in Chicago was a very good indicator of how I think this game will play out. Pierce will get his (scored 37 I believe in the last game in Chicago) and they still came up short. SHould see similar result tonight.
They are too shorthanded and Marbury/House do a terrible job of running the offense when Rondo is on the bench. This game will be even more up and down then the previous 2 in Boston and that will NOT favor the very short bench that Boston has.
I look for Rose to have another big game in his home town and the bench to score 35+ points. Boston played the best they could and still needed a buzzer beater to win the last game after already dropping one at home.
Bulls pull away in the 4th...
DAL/SAS
Dallas over the last 15 games at home is 14-1 with the lone loss coming to Denver by 2. They have been playing great basketball over that time including the first game in the playoffs. I think they were happy to get a split and come home with home court.
I realize SAN has played well in the past in Dallas during the playoffs but that was a totally different team. Bowen is a shell of his former self, Roger Mason WHO?, Bonner defending Dirk??? This is not the same Spurs we all know and love betting on in the playoffs. Parker will get his but it wont be enough. Can you really put your money on that supporting cast?
Howard is back and healthy for the Mavs and gives them a big boost to the starting lineup and allows the bench to get stronger with Wright returning to it.
LAL/UTH
I AM A HOMER...ENOUGH SAID!!
That being said I believe we see a sweep as we havent seen the best of the Lakers yet. Kobe loves these situations and with Bynum back they are a tough squad to beat home or away. They had the leagues best road record and already attributed to one of Utahs 8 losses at home this year without Bynum and Utah had Okur. WIlliams is a beast and will try to "Will" this team to victory but Kobe has more will and WAY more depth to work with!
Favorites cover all 3 today IMO....
The last game in Chicago was a very good indicator of how I think this game will play out. Pierce will get his (scored 37 I believe in the last game in Chicago) and they still came up short. SHould see similar result tonight.
They are too shorthanded and Marbury/House do a terrible job of running the offense when Rondo is on the bench. This game will be even more up and down then the previous 2 in Boston and that will NOT favor the very short bench that Boston has.
I look for Rose to have another big game in his home town and the bench to score 35+ points. Boston played the best they could and still needed a buzzer beater to win the last game after already dropping one at home.
Bulls pull away in the 4th...
DAL/SAS
Dallas over the last 15 games at home is 14-1 with the lone loss coming to Denver by 2. They have been playing great basketball over that time including the first game in the playoffs. I think they were happy to get a split and come home with home court.
I realize SAN has played well in the past in Dallas during the playoffs but that was a totally different team. Bowen is a shell of his former self, Roger Mason WHO?, Bonner defending Dirk??? This is not the same Spurs we all know and love betting on in the playoffs. Parker will get his but it wont be enough. Can you really put your money on that supporting cast?
Howard is back and healthy for the Mavs and gives them a big boost to the starting lineup and allows the bench to get stronger with Wright returning to it.
LAL/UTH
I AM A HOMER...ENOUGH SAID!!
That being said I believe we see a sweep as we havent seen the best of the Lakers yet. Kobe loves these situations and with Bynum back they are a tough squad to beat home or away. They had the leagues best road record and already attributed to one of Utahs 8 losses at home this year without Bynum and Utah had Okur. WIlliams is a beast and will try to "Will" this team to victory but Kobe has more will and WAY more depth to work with!
Favorites cover all 3 today IMO....
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tonight's games
tonight's games
I agree on Chicago and Dallas but I don't see anyway the Jazz beat LA even if they are at home. That series has sweep written all over it and I'm looking to take advantage of the low spread. Great value here. BOLTA!
tonight's games
I agree on Chicago and Dallas but I don't see anyway the Jazz beat LA even if they are at home. That series has sweep written all over it and I'm looking to take advantage of the low spread. Great value here. BOLTA!
is there a prop for mikki moore? His numbers are going to determine how this game turns. It's not looking good for my beloved C's.
I took all home teams tonight + Dallas/Spurs over & Chicago/Boston over. Played the home teams with 0.4 units. If one team loses I'll bet 1 unit the next game on the home team. If the home team wins tonight I'll not play the next game.
- Mar 18, 2009
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- Feb 23, 2005
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The line move on the BO/CHI total is starting to show value on the under. looks like a lot of money on the over on this one. Looking like this might be a play for me. I have some other things to look at.
