NBA TNT THURS 04012010 - Early Thoughts & Value Hunting

[JBrilman]

Rough night last night for most. I want to implore each of you to be careful these last 2 weeks. I remember this time last year and it was a lot of the same.....UNPREDICTABLE games. :shrug:

I played my share of 2nd half unders last night and Lakers 2nd half (fucking terrible bet), and Utah first half and ended up down a couple units for the day. Hope some of you did better.

Todays Leans

Orlando -2
Orlando will want to see how it stacks up against the best teams in the West. They have already beaten SA and Denver in the month of March and now Dallas is up. I think they continue there dominance over the West better teams.

Portland +5 (possibly ML)
Nobody played more than 27 minutes last night and most around 20-22. This team is gelling at the right time and the addition of Camby has plugged the hole in the middle and allowed Aldridge to play his natural position. I think this team could easily go to the 2nd round of the playoffs. They are catching Denver at a great time as they have lost 6 of there last 10 and are coming off a 5 game road trip that they went 1-4 on. First game back is usually a tough one.

Looking at both totals, I liked both to go over even when they were at 199 & 200 so the movement doesn't bother me I just need to see if my initial read is correct.

 

[40seven]

action only

action only

PTB and Magic.

Mav's were pushed around last night and the Blazers need this more and the Nug' are off

 

[frogster]

Something that I have noticed and you may want to see if my observations are on the money so to speak. For a 2nd half bet on the O/U of an NBA game pay attention to how both teams do in the first 1/2.

As an example if we have team A playing team C and the posted total for this game is 202.5 and come 1/2 time the combined score total is 110 we can draw this out to say that the game will go over the posted total of 202.5.

So, for the second half of this game: team A playing team C, the posted total for this game is 202.5 and the combined score total is 110 at the 1/2. We would bet the U posted total for the second 1/2 of the game.

I have not actually studied this, however it seems to me that well over 50% of the time going the opposite way for the second 1/2 covers.

Please check it out and let me know. I was watching the UTA vs GS game last night and the first 1/2 play was going way over the posted total of 232 for the game. The second half posted O/U was 112, maybe 112.5 and the second 1/2 play went 107, making the U a winner.

 

[barts185]

Something that I have noticed and you may want to see if my observations are on the money so to speak. For a 2nd half bet on the O/U of an NBA game pay attention to how both teams do in the first 1/2.

As an example if we have team A playing team C and the posted total for this game is 202.5 and come 1/2 time the combined score total is 110 we can draw this out to say that the game will go over the posted total of 202.5.

So, for the second half of this game: team A playing team C, the posted total for this game is 202.5 and the combined score total is 110 at the 1/2. We would bet the U posted total for the second 1/2 of the game.

I have not actually studied this, however it seems to me that well over 50% of the time going the opposite way for the second 1/2 covers.

Please check it out and let me know. I was watching the UTA vs GS game last night and the first 1/2 play was going way over the posted total of 232 for the game. The second half posted O/U was 112, maybe 112.5 and the second 1/2 play went 107, making the U a winner.

Unfotunately, there is not anywhere that I know of which archives second half lines.

Books are aware of some teams tendencies and will adjust totals for the second half. But, exactly how much on a game by game basis, I don't know.

 

[40seven]

wowowowowow

wowowowowow

4 posts

 

[frogster]

Thanks for the info barts185.

 

[Gibson7]

4-1 last night. Just got in so posting way late but I took the...............

Denver Nugs -5