NBA TUE 111709 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

These looked a little funny so I locked 'em in.





[711] TOTAL o219
(TORONTO vrs DENVER)

[712] DENVER -8

[713] TOTAL o197?
(CHICAGO vrs SACRAMENTO)

I'm waiting for some info on GS/CLE. I'm looking to play both side and O/U on this one.

action only for another week or so.

Love to hear what you guys have. BOL all.

adding: action only like the others

[702] TOTAL u215-110
(GOLDEN STATE vrs CLEVELAND)

Might have late night action on DET/LAL. I'm liking the way I've been reading DET this year.

 

[easterntimezone]

Intrigued by the Toronto/Denver total.

Think that Sacramento has a decent shot at beating the Bulls - early %ages favor the Bulls by close to a 2:1 ratio, but wondering if this reflects the impression that the Kings have been awful of recent vintage. Under Westphal, they play as a unit, he's integrated Evans into the mix w/o disrupting the rest of the team's distribution - and as temperamental and prone-to-mental-lapses at any given moment, Nocioni likely up to stick it to his old team. Don't know what to make of the Bulls as of yet - Salmons looks somewhat uncomfortable being the anointed replacement for Gordon.

 

[ChumpChange]

These looked a little funny so I locked 'em in.


[711] TOTAL o219
(TORONTO vrs DENVER)

[712] DENVER -8

[713] TOTAL o197?
(CHICAGO vrs SACRAMENTO)

I'm waiting for some info on GS/CLE. I'm looking to play both side and O/U on this one.



action only for another week or so.

Love to hear what you guys have. BOL all.

Good Morning ... like the under 221 in the Houston / Phoenix game ... locked in at 3:30 AM ... leaning towards the underr on the Cavs game as well but not yet able to deside.

GOOD LUCK

 

[Joe_Vienna]

locked

Suns @ Rockets U221 :toast:
Raptors @ Nuggets U219 :shrug:


BOL :violin:
Joe

 

[sportsfan1205]

Cavs -15.5 and Under 215

 

[barts185]

locked
OKC +6.5
CHI -2 (blew the line move on this one, still took it)


leans
NJ (will take at +5.5)

LAC (locked as per yesterday's post, but after 5.5 points of line movement, only a lean now)

TOR/DEN over (don't know why this line has come down, anyone able to explain?).

 

[axp59]

Barts,

re:TOR/DEN

there's much trending pointing to an under play here. Take your pick. Eastern playing at Western teams. Results for numbers over 215. Fresh in people's memory is TOR/PHO closed @232.5 with a 101-100 score. Whole boatload of reasons to put your hard earned cash on the U on this one.

Why am I playing the O?

The NBA is starting this season very SLOW. The League avg is about 98-99. This doesn't apply to either team.

Regression Analysis: for these two teams, DEN is playing tougher D but still gives up over 100 in this one. Forget about TOR stopping DEN here.

Weighted: H/A performance given more consideration. Forget about it. DEN will score 120 on you at home. And TOR is a team that's going to prevent that? Highly unlikely.

Exponential smoothing: This might be the only problem with playing the over. DEN has slowed down their game both on OFF and DEF.

With TOR in town, I'm putting my $$$ on the over. I guess that's why they call it gambling.

CAVEAT: this is the first week this season I am applying my full routine. This means I'm in full capping mode and now considering statistical modeling along with trending and some fundamental analysis. THERE IS NO LOCK. I'm still guessing just like everyone else.

BOL

 

[axp59]

DET/LAL

As previously mentioned, I thought there might be something attractive to come out of this but I'm not feeling it. Taking a pass here.

BOL

 

[frogster]

Good to see you are back ax, you have been misssed. I look forward to you picks. I am doing well in NFL, both Best Bets won this weekend. I'll get you mine for week 11 when I figure out what I am doing.

 

[axp59]

Good to see you are back ax, you have been misssed. I look forward to you picks. I am doing well in NFL, both Best Bets won this weekend. I'll get you mine for week 11 when I figure out what I am doing.

Thanks bud. I checked your blog last week but I didn't see anything. Did you skip a week posting? Got your email also, thank you. No PM here on MJ. BTW, I sent you an email on your yahoo account. BOL pal.

 

[easterntimezone]

Ax -

Could you please provide a little behind-the-scenes insight re: Chicago/Sacramento total? First inclination would be to favor the U owing to the tepid pace that the Bulls execute at, but am wary about initial takes and am predisposed to the O if addressed as clinically as possible.

BTW, have you received package yet? May be somewhat delayed crossing border.

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

I'd like to start off with a personal:thefinger to Rudy fernandez for hitting that last second meaning less 3 that turned my win into a push. I guess thats what I get for getting a bad number.

Leans for tonight
NJ +4.5 -they have been covering and are due for a W

Raps +8

Kings +1

Suns over 219
Houston has scored over 100 in 9 games in a row and we know how the Suns like to run. Why are u guys liking the under here??:sadwave:

 

[jagerfury]

DEN/TOR off board

DEN/TOR off board

Interesting, my local book has the TOR/DEN matchup off the board right now. I took Denver on the point spread this morning, but they didn't have the O/U posted yet. Have gone back to look at the number, and it is off the board.....hmmmm.

 

[axp59]

Ax -

Could you please provide a little behind-the-scenes insight re: Chicago/Sacramento total? First inclination would be to favor the U owing to the tepid pace that the Bulls execute at, but am wary about initial takes and am predisposed to the O if addressed as clinically as possible.

BTW, have you received package yet? May be somewhat delayed crossing border.

Very acute observation ETZ. Statistically speaking, this is a very tight number @ the current 198. Again, taking the NBA avg or 98-99, these two teams are about as polar opposites of each other as yin and yang. CHI plays the lower side of this avg and SAC obviously on the upper end.
My play here is based on some trending but more so on the firm belief that the home team will dictate the pace of this game. This is a big gamble anytime I rely on SAC to carry my action.

FWIW, I like the way this side is moving. I think the book had it correct when this one opened.

package. Thanks bro. will confirm upon receipt. Much appreciated. Looking forward to a break from the usual Agave.

 

[shamrock]

clips -1.5 & over 195

 

[Joe_Vienna]

adding Pistons @ Lakers O191
looks like easy money

Final card

Suns @ Rockets U221
Raptors @ Nuggets U219
Pistons @ Lakers O191

BOL :00hour
Joe

 

[40seven]

Sorry i am late, three plays jump at me

Sorry i am late, three plays jump at me

1. Denver -8 or 9. Alot has been said, but since TR is at the end of a road trip and Denver just destroyed the Lakers (I love saying that)...

2. The Suns +3 seems logical.

3. Clippers and Hornets Under now up to 196.

I was wrong last night on the Bucks but my logic worked, i believe we will profit alot on the Bucks this year as a Dog.

 

[barts185]

Barts,

re:TOR/DEN

there's much trending pointing to an under play here. Take your pick. Eastern playing at Western teams. Results for numbers over 215. Fresh in people's memory is TOR/PHO closed @232.5 with a 101-100 score. Whole boatload of reasons to put your hard earned cash on the U on this one.

Why am I playing the O?

The NBA is starting this season very SLOW. The League avg is about 98-99. This doesn't apply to either team.

Regression Analysis: for these two teams, DEN is playing tougher D but still gives up over 100 in this one. Forget about TOR stopping DEN here.

Weighted: H/A performance given more consideration. Forget about it. DEN will score 120 on you at home. And TOR is a team that's going to prevent that? Highly unlikely.

Exponential smoothing: This might be the only problem with playing the over. DEN has slowed down their game both on OFF and DEF.

With TOR in town, I'm putting my $$$ on the over. I guess that's why they call it gambling.

CAVEAT: this is the first week this season I am applying my full routine. This means I'm in full capping mode and now considering statistical modeling along with trending and some fundamental analysis. THERE IS NO LOCK. I'm still guessing just like everyone else.

BOL

Thanks for the great insight - always appreciated.

And if you ever see me asking for a lock, you know that someone has gotten ahold of my username and it's not me


Take Care,
Bart

 

[BillyBatts]

Plays

Plays

Locking these in for tonight

Nets +4.5
Cavs underr 213.5
Nuggets over 215


Also playing my Illini -22, they should win by 40 tonight.:00x30

Good luck fellas.:toast:

 

[grindstone]

These looked a little funny so I locked 'em in.





[711] TOTAL o219
(TORONTO vrs DENVER)

[712] DENVER -8

[713] TOTAL o197?
(CHICAGO vrs SACRAMENTO)

I'm waiting for some info on GS/CLE. I'm looking to play both side and O/U on this one.

action only for another week or so.

Love to hear what you guys have. BOL all.

adding: action only like the others

[702] TOTAL u215-110
(GOLDEN STATE vrs CLEVELAND)

Might have late night action on DET/LAL. I'm liking the way I've been reading DET this year.

Hey AX nice to have you back brother. You always make this thread interesting with your analysis.

Just wondering do we need to sprinkle a little more action on the TOR/Den over since it is down to 216.5????

Here are the public #

Tor/Denv
53% Over
47% Under

Side

Denv 67%
Tor 33%