40 - I think I am going to do the same thing even though I really want to unleash on IA. Chump - the IA QB is Stanzi and altough he has all the talent in the world - he is prone to very poor D reads - the kind of mistakes you see at a freshman HS game. He has about the same # of TDs/Interceptions this year. He is also coming off a knee injury and who knows. IA's backup QB is not good right now - too inexperienced. With all this said I want to pound IA because IA's defense has the potentilal to completely stuff GT - I mean really stuff them. Below is a write-up from a repected capper but I agree with the breakdown - just thought I would share.
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It's the last BCS Bowl before the national championship game as the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Iowa Hawkeyes meet up in the FedEx Orange Bowl.
For Georgia Tech this is a return to the stadium where their ACC title hopes nearly ended as they were handled by the Miami Hurricanes earlier this season. Georgia Tech rebounded from that game and didn't lose again until the final game of the season when they were upset by their in state rival Georgia in the game called "Clean, Old Fashioned Hate". Georgia Tech has been slow starters in many of their games, not showing much in the first half but in the second half QB Josh Nesbitt and running back Jonathan Dwyer have been running coach Paul Johnson's option offense to near perfection. The Yellow Jackets averaged 305 yards per game on the ground and as unbalanced as their offense was, not many were able to even come close to stopping them for a full 60 minutes. While GT kept the ball on the ground, it was hardly a ball control system and their defense spent plenty of time on the field, usually against teams needing to open it up to keep pace. Georgia Tech ranked between 57 and 60 in every major defensive category including the 24.1 and 352 yards a game they gave up.
Iowa wasn't expected to do much this season and after a narrow escape in their opener against Northern Iowa, the expectations were lowered even further but as the season went on, it became apparent that Iowa was going to be a force to reckoned with. In the fourth game of the season, the Hawkeyes looked to be in trouble after just the opening seconds as Penn State scored on a long touchdown pass and led going into halftime. As became a trend for Iowa, they shut down the Nittany Lions in the second half and went on to win that game and the next five that followed. In their ninth game, QB Ricky Stanzi was injured and Iowa fell to Northwestern. They followed up that loss with a game overtime loss to Ohio State in Columbus in a game where Stanzi was unable to play. Stanzi should be the starter when the offense takes the field in Miami. The Iowa defense was outstanding this year as they frustrated opposing offenses. Iowa only allowed 16.9 points per game and 294.5 yards ranking them in the top 20 in the country in each of those categories. While teams were able to run the ball on Iowa somewhat, they were very difficult to pass on.
Georgia Tech is 4-1 against the spread when playing teams with a winning record and 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as a favorite but the Yellow jackets are just 2-5 against the spread the last seven times they have been favored in bowl games. Iowa is 4-1 against the spread in their last five bowl games, 4-1 against the spread as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points and 4-1 against the spread in their last five non conference games.
This should be another good game as we have two teams who truly deserve to be on a big stage and two teams who have earned it. I think this game is close but I think the Iowa defense has the ability to keep this one low scoring and if they do, it makes those four points they are getting very important and a great value.
Mitch's Pick: Iowa +4
