NBA WED 01132010-Early Thoughts & Value Hunting

[JBrilman]

Morning Fellas,

Lakers continued there trend of losing SU and ATS as a dog this year something to keep an eye on for road trips, especially while Gasol is out. It was my only play last night.

We have a big board tonight, so as Ax likes to say lets let the economy of the board help us dictate a play.

So far all the money is on the Lakers so I expect a better number at some point today. Not to mention Dallas probably wants some revenge for there last trip to Staples when they were blown out 131-96.

Early Leans

DAL -7
BOS -8
POR -6

ALL CHALK

 

[dumbbet]

nba

nba

Gasol is still out but is Kobe playing or if he is is he 100% any word yet? Even if he plays Dallas should cover

 

[JBrilman]

Gasol is still out but is Kobe playing or if he is is he 100% any word yet? Even if he plays Dallas should cover

Kobe will not be 100% all year. He has a broken finger. But a 85% Kobe is better than almost anyone in the league. His back will not be 100% tonight. I don't see how it could.

PHI -2.5
OKC -1.5

also have caught my eye. Oh boy a lot of chalk, a lot of chalk...

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

Lost my only play last night on the Lakeshow as well. My "system didn't have any plays, but went 2-1 with leans, the only one losing was Spurs over which missed by 2.5, with no Kobe in most of 2nd half. It went 5-1 the other night and already have a couple that will fit in today.
Here are my initial leans at 1st glance though.

Leans:director:
Suns and under
Clippers
OKC (possible POD)
Houston and over
Portland
GSW

Will be back in a bit with some numbers kurby

 

[JBrilman]

Lost my only play last night on the Lakeshow as well.

I had the Spurs Bill I posted a nice trend against the Lakes yesterday if you didn't catch it.

 

[BillyBatts]

I had the Spurs Bill I posted a nice trend against the Lakes yesterday if you didn't catch it.

Ya, wish I would've listened.
I went with the other trend where Spurs were 1-10 ATS last 11 at home. Any time LA is + points is almost autoplay for me, but no Gasol should've stopped me. :violin:

Oh well, will get it back tonight I hope. Alot to chose from. :toast:

 

[dr.sinister]

leans

leans

Hey everyone, let us get to work:director:


My early leans:

was@atl 203.5 u
pho@ind 227.5 u
sa@okc okc -1.5


Check in later.

 

[BillyBatts]

Just an FYI

Just an FYI

:box2:
interesting under trends in under of OKC-SA game

Under is 20-5-1 in Thunder last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points

Under is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.

under is 6-0 for Spurs on 2nd night of a b2b going from an avg score of 197 down to 180:scared

This one will have to fit the system, but just running numbers now.

 

[Slicer]

It's Chalk Wednesday :142smilie :scared

Phx -4
Den -5
Port -6

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY 22-21-1
This Week: 0-2

Ok, time to get off the "snide", putting my stock on a solid team tonight @ home.

NEVADA -3 FULL UNIT PLAY

The wolfpack have been stellar all year at home perfect 8-0. Using common opponents theme in this game since both teams have recently played La Tech and N. Mex State in 2 of their last 3 games. The Wolfpack lost to LA Tech by 6, beat NMST by 10. The Aggies lost both, LA Tech by 22, NMST by 3.

The Aggies are coming off an impressive 98-54 thumping of Hawaii, while the Wolfpack are coming off a thumping of 96-67 of SJST.

The inside game will be the difference along with the pace of play. This is a rematch of last years WAC Championship which Utah St won, so a little revenge sprinkled in for good measure. Look for intense defensive effort from the Wolfpack to shut down the Aggies in a cruicial WAC tilt.

Other plays:

GT/Virginia Over 131
Duke/BC Under 143.5
UNC/Clemson O 153 (my poor heels gonna lose
Witchta St -4 1/2 unit play
Ole Miss -4.5
Wisky/NW Over 124

 

[40seven]

About last night

About last night

Boy it was hard to see the Kings fade at the end....money to dust. And as it has been said I wish I would have listened more to JB, good news it was mostly action plays and we have tonight!


If you lean on the Suns, Celtics or Blazers be careful you are about to enter the greedy zone a place that looks so good in the afternoon but often smells at night if more than one of these covers I will be shocked IMHO

As for me I am looking hard at

The 76ers
The Wiz
The Mavs
The Dubs aka the Warriors

 

[BillyBatts]

Plays

Plays

2 plays for me tonight :director:
Ind-Pho UNDER 226.5
OKC-SA UNDER 193



System plays (still work in progress, not advising to play)
Pho- GS UNDER 226.5 (capped at 211)
Mia-GSW UNDER 215 (capped at 209)


My totals capped in bold Vs Current line
Wash- Atl 201 205.5 Lean heavy under
Pho-Ind 211 226.5 system play under
NY-Phi 202 202 no lean
Bos-NJ 194 187.5 Lean heavy over due to line movement
LAC-N.O 197 192.5 Lean heavy over
SA-OKC 193 192.5 no system play but I played due to trends.
LAL-Dal 197 195.5 No lean
Hou-Min 205 203.5 No lean
Orl-Den 205 210.5 Heavy lean under due to line movement (puts the difference at 5+ but no play cuz I go off of opening line)
Mil-Port 193 192.5 No lean
Mia GSW 209 215 System play to under


BOL fellas :mj06:

 

[dr.sinister]

2 plays for me tonight :director:
Ind-Pho UNDER 226.5
OKC-SA UNDER 193



System plays (still work in progress, not advising to play)
Pho- GS UNDER 226.5 (capped at 211)
Mia-GSW UNDER 215 (capped at 209)


My totals capped in bold Vs Current line
Wash- Atl 201 205.5 Lean heavy under
Pho-Ind 211 226.5 system play under
NY-Phi 202 202 no lean
Bos-NJ 194 187.5 Lean heavy over due to line movement
LAC-N.O 197 192.5 Lean heavy over
SA-OKC 193 192.5 no system play but I played due to trends.
LAL-Dal 197 195.5 No lean
Hou-Min 205 203.5 No lean
Orl-Den 205 210.5 Heavy lean under due to line movement (puts the difference at 5+ but no play cuz I go off of opening line)
Mil-Port 193 192.5 No lean
Mia GSW 209 215 System play to under


BOL fellas :mj06:

Do those two plays fit under the system? Good luck BB and thanks for the work. As for myself, probably going with was@atl 203.5u and okc-1.5

 

[barts185]

NYK +2.5

Other than the first road trip of the year back in October, NYK haven't gone winless on a 2 game or longer roadtrip. PHI is the worst of the 3 teams they've played on this roadtrip.

 

[granpa]

Wisky/NWestern

Wisky/NWestern

I find it quite odd NW is getting points considering Wisconsin's top rebounder is out with a broken wrist. Not to mention I think NW has more balanced scoring.

 

[ChumpChange]

Gentlemen ...... Atla / W under 204

Good Luck ..........

 

[Ools]

It's Chalk Wednesday :142smilie :scared

Phx -4
Den -5
Port -6

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY 22-21-1
This Week: 0-2

Ok, time to get off the "snide", putting my stock on a solid team tonight @ home.

NEVADA -3 FULL UNIT PLAY

The wolfpack have been stellar all year at home perfect 8-0. Using common opponents theme in this game since both teams have recently played La Tech and N. Mex State in 2 of their last 3 games. The Wolfpack lost to LA Tech by 6, beat NMST by 10. The Aggies lost both, LA Tech by 22, NMST by 3.

The Aggies are coming off an impressive 98-54 thumping of Hawaii, while the Wolfpack are coming off a thumping of 96-67 of SJST.

The inside game will be the difference along with the pace of play. This is a rematch of last years WAC Championship which Utah St won, so a little revenge sprinkled in for good measure. Look for intense defensive effort from the Wolfpack to shut down the Aggies in a cruicial WAC tilt.

Other plays:

GT/Virginia Over 131
Duke/BC Under 143.5
UNC/Clemson O 153 (my poor heels gonna lose
Witchta St -4 1/2 unit play
Ole Miss -4.5
Wisky/NW Over 124

I like it --- my only concer is that Nevada has been a little suspect in the 2nd half of games -- so i'm probably going to split my unit 1st/2nd halfs as a little hedge.

 

[logan]

My plays. Tough loss on sas ov last night. Lakers go scoreless for the last few minues and I lose by 1.5. Still 11 of the last 15 winners.

Ind un 228
atl un 204
Noh ov 192.5


My cbb pod. Lastnight had the outright winner with NCST.

Tex Tech + 4

g/l

 

[40seven]

Two Plays

Two Plays

Friends two plays tonight


Wiz +11

Bucks +6

BOLTA

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Final card :00hour

Suns @ Pacers U227.5:00hour
Magic @ Nuggets U209.5:00hour
Clippers @ Hornets O192.5:00hour
Celtics @ Nets U188:00hour

BOLTA :00hour
Joe:00hour

 

[grindstone]

1-0 Last night

6 Plays today

LA Lakers + 7

LA Clippers + 7.5

PHX/IND Under 228

NYK + 3

Wash + 11

WASH/ATL Under 204

Hopefully the dogs bark tonight

GLTA