NBA Wed 031010- Early Thoughts & Value Hunting

[grindstone]

One early one boys

Den/Minn U216

GLTA See you all later

 

[cubboy]

4-1 yesterday..

4-1 yesterday..

will be posting later but i do like that under grind...lets find some gems guys good luck..

 

[40seven]

I started a thread in the Baseball forum if you want to join in.

I started a thread in the Baseball forum if you want to join in.

This was my first post.


I am posting these plays with the hope we can start a friendly encouraging and fun Baseball thread.


This is spring training baseball, I am betting 25 dollars per game this is for fun and I am GUESSING and HOPING.

I have done well with my system so I will post for fun please join in.


Please go to that thread if you want to add to the discussion.

47

 

[BillyBatts]

Good luck

Good luck

This was my first post.


I am posting these plays with the hope we can start a friendly encouraging and fun Baseball thread.


This is spring training baseball, I am betting 25 dollars per game this is for fun and I am GUESSING and HOPING.

I have done well with my system so I will post for fun please join in.


Please go to that thread if you want to add to the discussion.

47

I keep an eye on preseason but don't wager until the last couple of games. Too much other things to try to concentrate on now, but BOL and hold it down until I get there.

3-1 last night with a push on POD:mj06:

Leans today in NBA
Clips +10 and over 189
Nugs under
Hornets +7
Spurs -9 and over 207
Kings +2 and over 212
kurby

 

[barts185]

3-1 last night with a push on POD:mj06:

Thanks - and again, sorry about the initial mistake on the query yesterday.


For today, so far I locked on Denver. Even without Martin, think they should beat Minnesota handily.


Good Luck,
Bart

 

[BillyBatts]

No Worries

No Worries

Thanks - and again, sorry about the initial mistake on the query yesterday.


For today, so far I locked on Denver. Even without Martin, think they should beat Minnesota handily.


Good Luck,
Bart

No apologies needed Bart, if I have some mis info I appreciate you double checking on it. You corrected it so no harm. I appreciate all the help you do for me and the rest of the board with the queries, you keep the info coming and we will try to keep the winners coming. :toast:

SPEAKING OF INFO. LOOK AT THIS SYSTEM PLAY.:director:

Sorry GS, I may have to lay off your play today.


Play the Over when the total is greater than or equal to 200, the home team (TWolves)is off a home loss by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage under 25 percent, playing a team with a winning record (Nugs)

the last five NBA seasons have seen this specific totals system produce a 21-1 record, that 95.4 percent if you are keeping score at home. The average total score of this particular system is 220.5 points per game (well above tonight?s matchup), dating back to 1996.


:scared

 

[BillyBatts]

Query help

Query help

Is there anyway to query or does anyone have info on how teams in the Big East tourney , who played the day before play teams who are rested?? Maybe last 3 years? If I remember correctly it was pretty significant ATS advantage for rested teams. Thanks. :toast:

 

[barts185]

Is there anyway to query or does anyone have info on how teams in the Big East tourney , who played the day before play teams who are rested?? Maybe last 3 years? If I remember correctly it was pretty significant ATS advantage for rested teams. Thanks. :toast:

I've asked in a lot of places for any sort of database that would let me do queries like that, even if I had to pay. I haven't been able to find one for college basketball.

If you guys keep winning like you are, I might just pay to have one made.

 

[40seven]

Man

Man

These lines are a tight as a nat's a$$.

Last night I lost two games by 2 points total. Crazy.


I am looking at ML Parlays to get some of this back:scared

 

[40seven]

I did my own figuring

I did my own figuring

Across the way they have back years, but last year was the first where all the teams got in so it is harder.

Last year day 2 only one day one winner covered. It was by 1 point.

 

[barts185]

No apologies needed Bart, if I have some mis info I appreciate you double checking on it. You corrected it so no harm. I appreciate all the help you do for me and the rest of the board with the queries, you keep the info coming and we will try to keep the winners coming. :toast:

SPEAKING OF INFO. LOOK AT THIS SYSTEM PLAY.:director:

Sorry GS, I may have to lay off your play today.


Play the Over when the total is greater than or equal to 200, the home team (TWolves)is off a home loss by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage under 25 percent, playing a team with a winning record (Nugs)

the last five NBA seasons have seen this specific totals system produce a 21-1 record, that 95.4 percent if you are keeping score at home. The average total score of this particular system is 220.5 points per game (well above tonight?s matchup), dating back to 1996.


:scared

I wasn't sure if last 5 seasons meant from 2005 or 2006

since 2006
H and total>=200 and p:H and p:margin<=-10 and tA(W)<=.25 and oA(W)>.5 and season>=2006

SU: 11-13 (-1.5)
ATS: 14-10-0 (3.6) avg line: 5.2
O/U: 19-4-1 (13.7) avg total: 212.7


since 2005
SU: 12-14 (-1.4)
ATS: 15-11-0 (3.8) avg line: 5.3
O/U: 21-4-1 (13.2) avg total: 211.9



season by season
H and total>=200 and p:H and p:margin<=-10 and tA(W)<=.25 and oA(W)>.5 and season

ATS OU SU season
1-3-0 (-0.2) 2-2-0 (2.2) 1-3 (-7.25) 2009
3-4-0 (4.4) 5-1-1 (5.6) 3-4 (-0.29) 2008
5-2-0 (4.1) 7-0-0 (29.3) 3-4 (-3.00) 2007
5-1-0 (4.7) 5-1-0 (12.6) 4-2 (2.50) 2006
1-1-0 (6.5) 2-0-0 (7.8) 1-1 (0.00) 2005
1-0-0 (3.5) 1-0-0 (6.5) 0-1 (-9.00) 2000
2-1-0 (7.7) 1-2-0 (-4.5) 2-1 (4.33) 1999
4-0-0 (7.2) 3-1-0 (6.2) 0-4 (-4.25) 1997
4-4-0 (-6.2) 5-3-0 (3.1) 0-8 (-15.38) 1996
1-3-0 (-3.1) 1-3-0 (-7.5) 1-3 (-6.75) 1995

 

[BillyBatts]

Thanks

Thanks

Across the way they have back years, but last year was the first where all the teams got in so it is harder.

Last year day 2 only one day one winner covered. It was by 1 point.

Thanks Forty and Bart for the info. Appreciated as always. I had a strong lean to S.Florida today, but that's why I layed off and will be a no play.

Bart--What do you think about that over now??

I hate to go against GS though, especially as hot as he has been :shrug:

 

[barts185]

I wasn't sure if last 5 seasons meant from 2005 or 2006

since 2006
H and total>=200 and p:H and p:margin<=-10 and tA(W)<=.25 and oA(W)>.5 and season>=2006

SU: 11-13 (-1.5)
ATS: 14-10-0 (3.6) avg line: 5.2
O/U: 19-4-1 (13.7) avg total: 212.7


since 2005
SU: 12-14 (-1.4)
ATS: 15-11-0 (3.8) avg line: 5.3
O/U: 21-4-1 (13.2) avg total: 211.9



season by season
H and total>=200 and p:H and p:margin<=-10 and tA(W)<=.25 and oA(W)>.5 and season

ATS OU SU season
1-3-0 (-0.2) 2-2-0 (2.2) 1-3 (-7.25) 2009
3-4-0 (4.4) 5-1-1 (5.6) 3-4 (-0.29) 2008
5-2-0 (4.1) 7-0-0 (29.3) 3-4 (-3.00) 2007
5-1-0 (4.7) 5-1-0 (12.6) 4-2 (2.50) 2006
1-1-0 (6.5) 2-0-0 (7.8) 1-1 (0.00) 2005
1-0-0 (3.5) 1-0-0 (6.5) 0-1 (-9.00) 2000
2-1-0 (7.7) 1-2-0 (-4.5) 2-1 (4.33) 1999
4-0-0 (7.2) 3-1-0 (6.2) 0-4 (-4.25) 1997
4-4-0 (-6.2) 5-3-0 (3.1) 0-8 (-15.38) 1996
1-3-0 (-3.1) 1-3-0 (-7.5) 1-3 (-6.75) 1995

Actually, it says under 25 percent, so the queries should actually be

H and total>=200 and p:H and p:margin<=-10 and tA(W)<.25 and oA(W)>.5 and season>=2006

SU: 11-11 (-1.5)
ATS: 12-10-0 (3.7) avg line: 5.2
O/U: 17-4-1 (12.1) avg total: 212.8


H and total>=200 and p:H and p:margin<=-10 and tA(W)<.25 and oA(W)>.5 and season>=2005

SU: 12-12 (-1.4)
ATS: 13-11-0 (3.9) avg line: 5.3
O/U: 19-4-1 (11.8) avg total: 211.9


H and total>=200 and p:H and p:margin<=-10 and tA(W)<.25 and oA(W)>.5 and season

ATS OU SU season
1-3-0 (-0.2) 2-2-0 (2.2) 1-3 (-7.25) 2009
3-4-0 (4.4) 5-1-1 (5.6) 3-4 (-0.29) 2008
4-2-0 (4.2) 6-0-0 (28.4) 3-3 (-3.17) 2007
4-1-0 (5.0) 4-1-0 (9.6) 4-1 (3.40) 2006
1-1-0 (6.5) 2-0-0 (7.8) 1-1 (0.00) 2005
1-0-0 (3.5) 1-0-0 (6.5) 0-1 (-9.00) 2000
2-1-0 (7.7) 1-2-0 (-4.5) 2-1 (4.33) 1999
4-0-0 (7.2) 3-1-0 (6.2) 0-4 (-4.25) 1997
4-4-0 (-6.2) 5-3-0 (3.1) 0-8 (-15.38) 1996
0-2-0 (-6.8) 0-2-0 (-12.5) 0-2 (-14.00) 1995


Good Luck,
Bart

 

[barts185]

Thanks Forty and Bart for the info. Appreciated as always. I had a strong lean to S.Florida today, but that's why I layed off and will be a no play.

Bart--What do you think about that over now??

I hate to go against GS though, especially as hot as he has been :shrug:

I'll take GS's capping (and yours) over ANY system / trend. ANY. TIME.


Of course, if you tell me you now like the over, will be a quandry.

 

[BillyBatts]

Yessir

Yessir

I'll take GS's capping (and yours) over ANY system / trend. ANY. TIME.


Of course, if you tell me you now like the over, will be a quandry.

I totally agree. Looking at the numbers now. Be back in a bit... :box2:


EDIT---:director:

I hate to do this....BUT......

Locked inadlock:

Nugs-Wolves OVER 216 (Regular Play)

First the line. 3 recent matchups this year.
Game 1 @ Min total set at 203.5
Result--game soared over at 235
Game 2 @ Den line adjusted to 213.5
Result--goes under at a 206 final
Game 3 @Den Line raised to 216
Result-goes way under again at 199
So..2 months later goes back to minny and it opens higher again at 217??:shrug:

Next, the stats. Besides that system we discussed, these numbers come into play
Nuggets as a 7 or 7.5 Fave 5-0 Over
Wolves as a dog at this number 5-3 Over
TWolves at a total of less than 200 8-16 over
When it's 200+ 24-15 Over
Nugs last 3, and Wolves last 4 have all went over
Nuggets on 2 days rest. The more rest they have, the more thier scoring goes up.

3rd we have these trends
Over is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 Wednesday games.
Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.
Over is 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game

Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games as a home underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 home games.
Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Over is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Best of luck whoever you decide, will be back later with more plays. :toast:

 

[barts185]

I hate to do this....BUT......

Locked inadlock:

Nugs-Wolves OVER 216 (Regular Play)

ARGH!!!!! :00x25 :00x33 :00x4

Okay, saw that coming.

over :00x2 under


Good Luck to both of you.

Take Care,
Bart

 

[frogster]

Hi, I went 1 - 2 last night. What a disapointmenting game SAC vs POR, lost both the totals play and side. UTA total did win for me.

Tonight I like the O 209 of the UTA vs DET game and the O 204 of the NJ vs DAL game. GL to all.

 

[logan]

It has been a busy week for me and I haven't had time to post. But that is a good thing as I have been ice cold.

tonights plays

mia un
det un

g/l guys

 

[grindstone]

I totally agree. Looking at the numbers now. Be back in a bit... :box2:


EDIT---:director:

I hate to do this....BUT......

Locked inadlock:

Nugs-Wolves OVER 216 (Regular Play)

First the line. 3 recent matchups this year.
Game 1 @ Min total set at 203.5
Result--game soared over at 235
Game 2 @ Den line adjusted to 213.5
Result--goes under at a 206 final
Game 3 @Den Line raised to 216
Result-goes way under again at 199
So..2 months later goes back to minny and it opens higher again at 217??:shrug:

Next, the stats. Besides that system we discussed, these numbers come into play
Nuggets as a 7 or 7.5 Fave 5-0 Over
Wolves as a dog at this number 5-3 Over
TWolves at a total of less than 200 8-16 over
When it's 200+ 24-15 Over
Nugs last 3, and Wolves last 4 have all went over
Nuggets on 2 days rest. The more rest they have, the more thier scoring goes up.

3rd we have these trends
Over is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 Wednesday games.
Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.
Over is 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game

Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games as a home underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 home games.
Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Over is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Best of luck whoever you decide, will be back later with more plays. :toast:

Hey BB I got this game capped at about 209-210, the good news is that one of us will be in the black tonight.

GL BB

 

[grindstone]

These lines are a tight as a nat's a$$.

Last night I lost two games by 2 points total. Crazy.


I am looking at ML Parlays to get some of this back:scared

ML Parlay
Bost
Utah
OKC
Dall
SA
+
Den/Minn U216

pays about 5.6


GL 40seven