NBA WED 052009 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

axp59

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We've seen ORL go 7 games with BOS. Betting CLE is close to saying they win by DD. I've read some thoughts on this game but most interesting is the ORL+ play. Really?
 

Ace_Ace

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I was doing homework all day Ax

Check the preview on this series & let us know what ya think ?
 

netMinder

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I bought up Orlando to +9.. Im thinking the time off might give the Cavs a bit of rust. If the Magic play up to their potential, I really like how they match up against Lebron and crew.
 

Griffin8s

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But just remember this game is in the Q. We thought they would have to bust the rust off at the start of the second round but we all know how that ended up. I'm going to ride the LBJ train till I get bucked off.
 
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Slicer

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Accuscore: Clev by 5.5 and 183.5

Accuscore Playoff Records:

28-37-3 Sides
43-25-1 Totals

3.0 underdogs are 22-20
1.0 unders are 19-18

Fading off the sides for accuscore, taking Cleve -8.5 for the 1/2 unit i lost on fakers last night

MLB POD: KC/Clev Over 9

Top 14
1. Slicer 43-18-1 +2502 70.49%
 

grindstone

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We've seen ORL go 7 games with BOS. Betting CLE is close to saying they win by DD. I've read some thoughts on this game but most interesting is the ORL+ play. Really?

Congradulations Sir you had a perfect night. You're like a throughbred in the last leg of the Triple Crown and coming out of the gate and winning the last leg from wire to wire. Without a doubt.

Congrats and IN AX We Trust


:00hour :00hour :00hour :00x1 :00x1
 

ari

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This will be another tough one tonight. I know LBJ will get his points but Howard has been a beast and I think LBJ is in for a rude surprise when he drives to the hole tonight. Looking forward to your call Ax - again, great calls last night!

p.s. do you post your Bball picks anywhere? This is my first year dabbling in baseball and I would love to see what you on. Thanks for your work..
 

jlippens

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I can't see this not being DD, for a Orlando team prone to drop into funks against the best team in the league that are massive at home. I don't see rust being an issue. Orlando do not have leaders, and Howard made that clear after Game 5. Boston (sorry to say Axp!) had no business taking them to 7 with VERY questionable players playing key minutes all series.

I think this could be ugly. If not for it being Game 1 and them wanting to send a message, I think it would be likely Lebron would be on the bench at the start of the 4th.
 

axp59

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Once again it appears we have polarized views of the side. That's great, gotta know what makes your play and what kills it. Have you guys had a chance to check out Ace's cap notes. It's a good read.
 

axp59

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Ari, haven't been posting MLB plays for a few weeks now. It was a huge distraction at the time and the income was moving sideways. My sys plays are in full swing now and profitable. I won't post since sys plays adhere to a strict betting routine that basically runs itself. I'd hate to have some tail selected plays and don't benefit from playing the systems out.
 

axp59

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I can't see this not being DD, for a Orlando team prone to drop into funks against the best team in the league that are massive at home. I don't see rust being an issue. Orlando do not have leaders, and Howard made that clear after Game 5. Boston (sorry to say Axp!) had no business taking them to 7 with VERY questionable players playing key minutes all series.

I think this could be ugly. If not for it being Game 1 and them wanting to send a message, I think it would be likely Lebron would be on the bench at the start of the 4th.

FWIW, this is a very accurate read IMHO. I think it was more ORL's lack of consistency that took the series to 7. Boston never had a say in that series.
 

pfj

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Another thing to remember is the fact that orlando matches up really well with cleveland and we have to remember when orlando played cleveland at home they only lost by 4, 97-93. I don't see the DD lost but its the nba and anything is possible
 

pfj

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Anyone like the total? Has ORL played with a number this low?
Totals haven't been this low for these two teams since 2006-07 season in which was set at 178.5 and 182. In their last 5 meetings @ cleveland they have only gone over the set total 1 out of 5 games since 06. But as we all know these playoff totals have been everything but predictable
 

axp59

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Totals haven't been this low for these two teams since 2006-07 season in which was set at 178.5 and 182. In their last 5 meetings @ cleveland they have only gone over the set total 1 out of 5 games since 06. But as we all know these playoff totals have been everything but predictable

The public seems to think the under is the right play. There are plenty of numbers to support their lean.
 

BIGWave

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I bought up Orlando to +9.. Im thinking the time off might give the Cavs a bit of rust. If the Magic play up to their potential, I really like how they match up against Lebron and crew.

Everyone was talking about their time off rust last round too.
I don't think LBJ CAN rust - some type of protective coating he must have....

Now - ORLANDO has played CLEV well this year and in years past.....7-3 SU and 10-1ATS with the underdog going 8-3ATS the last 11 meetings.

But MVP LBJ is playing his best ball of the season at just the right time..........they are focussed.
Lowest turnovers in both round for the Cavs have been in game#1 - lowest opponents 3pt shooting - other than the brutal 1-10 DET put up in game 4 as they were all calling to set up tee times.

F-O-C-U-S-S-E-D............
 

jlippens

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The public seems to think the under is the right play. There are plenty of numbers to support their lean.

I agree. This is the deal: if you like Orlando, you might as well parlay it with the Over for fun and profit. The only way they keep it close is if they're hitting threes. They aren't going to try to grind out 48 minutes against Cleveland. That is a recipe for losing.
 

jlippens

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PS. My main point is actually that I like the Under. Even with the big spread, and my full unit on Cleveland. Given the fact that I AM laying the points even with the low total, I'm not FURTHER tempting fate by also putting money on the UNDER, but if I had to play either side of the O/U, it would be the UNDER.
 
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