NBA WED 121609 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

I won't be around WED. This is my bet sheet for 121609. It's easy to figure out. You can almost tell what games to look out for. I've always preached about knowing what numbers to look for before the books release theirs. This is the sheet I use to spot overnight plays. Merry XMas. I'm only sharing this since there's been some interest in my betting sheet. This is only the summary page. Use it or ignore it. Record speaks for itself. You make the call and as always, I wish everyone the very best outcome.

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 600pt;" width="800" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 145pt;" width="193"> <col style="width: 134pt;" width="179" span="2"> <col style="width: 94pt;" width="125"> <col style="width: 93pt;" width="124"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 145pt;" x:num="" width="193" height="17">121609</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 134pt;" width="179">Play V if line is better than</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 134pt;" width="179">Play H if line is better than</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 94pt;" width="125">Play O if line is <=</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 93pt;" width="124">Play U if line is >=</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Memphis at Atlanta</td> <td class="xl25">+16.5</td> <td class="xl25">+7</td> <td class="xl25">202.5</td> <td class="xl25">217</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Charlotte at Indiana</td> <td class="xl25">+9</td> <td class="xl25">+.5</td> <td class="xl25">177.5</td> <td class="xl25">200.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Toronto at Orlando</td> <td class="xl25">+10.5</td> <td class="xl25">+1.5</td> <td class="xl25">194</td> <td class="xl25">216.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Cleveland at Philadelphia</td> <td class="xl25">0</td> <td class="xl25">+8.5</td> <td class="xl25">187</td> <td class="xl25">198.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Utah at New Jersey</td> <td class="xl25">+5</td> <td class="xl25">+9</td> <td class="xl25">185.5</td> <td class="xl25">207.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">L.A. Lakers at Milwaukee</td> <td class="xl25">0</td> <td class="xl25">+10</td> <td class="xl25">196</td> <td class="xl25">203</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">L.A. Clippers at Minnesota</td> <td class="xl25">+7.5</td> <td class="xl25">+5.5</td> <td class="xl25">185</td> <td class="xl25">202</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Detroit at New Orleans</td> <td class="xl25">+5.5</td> <td class="xl25">+6</td> <td class="xl25">186</td> <td class="xl25">201</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Dallas at Oklahoma City</td> <td class="xl25">0</td> <td class="xl25">+6</td> <td class="xl25">186</td> <td class="xl25">198</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Houston at Denver</td> <td class="xl25">+10</td> <td class="xl25">+2</td> <td class="xl25">191</td> <td class="xl25">217.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">San Antonio at Golden State</td> <td class="xl25">+1.5</td> <td class="xl25">+9.5</td> <td class="xl25">192.5</td> <td class="xl25">224.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

 

[axp59]

Note:

Don't expect to get 10 plays out of this. :nono: If you get a couple, it's a good day.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

I don't have to cap tomorrow :00hour:142smilie

 

[Slicer]

Only play I'm showing per Ax's numbers on overnights posted at my book:

Det is listed at +5.5

Dallas is close at -1

No over/unders

 

[40seven]

I won't be around WED. This is my bet sheet for 121609. It's easy to figure out. You can almost tell what games to look out for. I've always preached about knowing what numbers to look for before the books release theirs. This is the sheet I use to spot overnight plays. Merry XMas. I'm only sharing this since there's been some interest in my betting sheet. This is only the summary page. Use it or ignore it. Record speaks for itself. You make the call and as always, I wish everyone the very best outcome.

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 600pt;" width="800" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 145pt;" width="193"> <col style="width: 134pt;" width="179" span="2"> <col style="width: 94pt;" width="125"> <col style="width: 93pt;" width="124"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 145pt;" x:num="" width="193" height="17">121609</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 134pt;" width="179">Play V if line is better than</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 134pt;" width="179">Play H if line is better than</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 94pt;" width="125">Play O if line is <=</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 93pt;" width="124">Play U if line is >=</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Memphis at Atlanta</td> <td class="xl25">+16.5</td> <td class="xl25">+7</td> <td class="xl25">202.5</td> <td class="xl25">217</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Charlotte at Indiana</td> <td class="xl25">+9</td> <td class="xl25">+.5</td> <td class="xl25">177.5</td> <td class="xl25">200.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Toronto at Orlando</td> <td class="xl25">+10.5</td> <td class="xl25">+1.5</td> <td class="xl25">194</td> <td class="xl25">216.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Cleveland at Philadelphia</td> <td class="xl25">0</td> <td class="xl25">+8.5</td> <td class="xl25">187</td> <td class="xl25">198.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Utah at New Jersey</td> <td class="xl25">+5</td> <td class="xl25">+9</td> <td class="xl25">185.5</td> <td class="xl25">207.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">L.A. Lakers at Milwaukee</td> <td class="xl25">0</td> <td class="xl25">+10</td> <td class="xl25">196</td> <td class="xl25">203</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">L.A. Clippers at Minnesota</td> <td class="xl25">+7.5</td> <td class="xl25">+5.5</td> <td class="xl25">185</td> <td class="xl25">202</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Detroit at New Orleans</td> <td class="xl25">+5.5</td> <td class="xl25">+6</td> <td class="xl25">186</td> <td class="xl25">201</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Dallas at Oklahoma City</td> <td class="xl25">0</td> <td class="xl25">+6</td> <td class="xl25">186</td> <td class="xl25">198</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Houston at Denver</td> <td class="xl25">+10</td> <td class="xl25">+2</td> <td class="xl25">191</td> <td class="xl25">217.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">San Antonio at Golden State</td> <td class="xl25">+1.5</td> <td class="xl25">+9.5</td> <td class="xl25">192.5</td> <td class="xl25">224.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

If you learned anything about i am gonna ask til i understand.

so noh game is a play for sure as is minny just not sure what side?

 

[axp59]

Slicer has the right call. So yes, the NOH game is in but on the other side (DET+). DAL is now @ -1.5 and moving farther away from a play. I'm not sure how you're seeing Minny in this mix Forty.

 

[grindstone]

I won't be around WED. This is my bet sheet for 121609. It's easy to figure out. You can almost tell what games to look out for. I've always preached about knowing what numbers to look for before the books release theirs. This is the sheet I use to spot overnight plays. Merry XMas. I'm only sharing this since there's been some interest in my betting sheet. This is only the summary page. Use it or ignore it. Record speaks for itself. You make the call and as always, I wish everyone the very best outcome.

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 600pt;" width="800" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 145pt;" width="193"> <col style="width: 134pt;" width="179" span="2"> <col style="width: 94pt;" width="125"> <col style="width: 93pt;" width="124"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 145pt;" x:num="" width="193" height="17">121609</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 134pt;" width="179">Play V if line is better than</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 134pt;" width="179">Play H if line is better than</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 94pt;" width="125">Play O if line is <=</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 93pt;" width="124">Play U if line is >=</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Memphis at Atlanta</td> <td class="xl25">+16.5</td> <td class="xl25">+7</td> <td class="xl25">202.5</td> <td class="xl25">217</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Charlotte at Indiana</td> <td class="xl25">+9</td> <td class="xl25">+.5</td> <td class="xl25">177.5</td> <td class="xl25">200.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Toronto at Orlando</td> <td class="xl25">+10.5</td> <td class="xl25">+1.5</td> <td class="xl25">194</td> <td class="xl25">216.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Cleveland at Philadelphia</td> <td class="xl25">0</td> <td class="xl25">+8.5</td> <td class="xl25">187</td> <td class="xl25">198.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Utah at New Jersey</td> <td class="xl25">+5</td> <td class="xl25">+9</td> <td class="xl25">185.5</td> <td class="xl25">207.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">L.A. Lakers at Milwaukee</td> <td class="xl25">0</td> <td class="xl25">+10</td> <td class="xl25">196</td> <td class="xl25">203</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">L.A. Clippers at Minnesota</td> <td class="xl25">+7.5</td> <td class="xl25">+5.5</td> <td class="xl25">185</td> <td class="xl25">202</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Detroit at New Orleans</td> <td class="xl25">+5.5</td> <td class="xl25">+6</td> <td class="xl25">186</td> <td class="xl25">201</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Dallas at Oklahoma City</td> <td class="xl25">0</td> <td class="xl25">+6</td> <td class="xl25">186</td> <td class="xl25">198</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Houston at Denver</td> <td class="xl25">+10</td> <td class="xl25">+2</td> <td class="xl25">191</td> <td class="xl25">217.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">San Antonio at Golden State</td> <td class="xl25">+1.5</td> <td class="xl25">+9.5</td> <td class="xl25">192.5</td> <td class="xl25">224.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

Here's what I see for tomorrow AX with the current lines

MEM + 9.5

NJ + 8

DET + 5.5

Hous + 8

Will the Dogs keep on barking tomorrow night????

:mj23:

 

[axp59]

Here's what I see for tomorrow AX with the current lines

MEM + 9.5

NJ + 8

DET + 5.5

Hous + 8

Will the Dogs keep on barking tomorrow night????

:mj23:

MEM is out for me

NJ a maybe but tight

Locked DET

HOU same boat as NJ

 

[grindstone]

MEM is out for me

NJ a maybe but tight

Locked DET

HOU same boat as NJ

Yes Sir upon further reflection

DET could be adlock:

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

At 1st glance leans for me tomorrow are Memphis and the under in the Pacers-Bobs game.

I may layoof the Hornets game since that was my initial lean. Stones on the road again, Hornets rested, and were playing well before the last game against NY. I feel they may have a bounceback. Nite all, talk to everyone tomorow. :00x26

 

[grindstone]

MEM is out for me

NJ a maybe but tight

Locked DET

HOU same boat as NJ

Det showing +6 in some of the Offshores do you see this going any higher than 6 AX???

 

[Slicer]

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY: (YTD: 15-9 62.5%)

Week 1 5-2
Week 2 4-3
Week 3 4-3
Week 4 2-1

NCAA GEM(s) OF THE DAY:

Actually found two plays today and both are too tempting to pass up so I'm gonna take them both since Thursday looks like a pass day (maybe not, but right now it does)

Oregon St -2 @ Ill-Chicago

Two teams going in opposite directions, the Beavers have been road tested (W @ GW, L by 6 @ Neb, L by 4 @ TT), facing a team that is giving up over 72pts avg over their past 5 games while scoring only 59 avg past 5 games. The Beavers play extremely well on defense holding opponents 36% FG and under 60 points. Neither team presents much of a 3pt threat and both teams rebound well though Oregon St interior is superior in speed and talent.

Cincy -2 @ UAB

UAB is always dangerous and they are riding high at 8-1 this season, but let's look closer:

E. TN St 5-6
Mid TN 4-6
Fla A&M 1-10
Troy 5-5
Georgia 4-4
Jacksonville St 5-4
Samford 3-6
Kent St 5-4
Wisc-GB (1st game of year on neutral floor) 9-3

Cincy has been tested this year by Vandy, Maryland, Zaga, Miami OH, and Xavier and should be steaming off that 4 point 2OT loss. The quality of competition is not on par nor is the talent. UAB's lone prayer (go on fire from 3pt land). Cincy needs to right the ship before heading into conference and a win over an 8-1 (albeit weak 8-1) team will serve its purpose.

So on the record for 2 plays today. Both road fav's at -2.

BOL :00x1

 

[axp59]

Det showing +6 in some of the Offshores do you see this going any higher than 6 AX???

Interesting, the trends don't dictate it. NOH 0-5 ATS last 5 at home vs. DET

note: under 6-0-1 in same situation

 

[40seven]

I misread

I misread

V and H not Fav and dog

 

[KillerKardoogan]

Just read Tuesday's thread.
Enjoyed getting a glimpse at how hard Ax works.
So where do you figure more discipline is required - capping for a living or the Marine Corps?

Sorry to hear you might be moving on down the road. I hope it's not for poker - the mooses there are much more annoying (and frequent).

Looking at your chart, I expect Orl to open at 10.5 in the A.M., which would make Tor a possibility.

As for Det, it doesn't look like Bynum nor Gordon will play Wed., eventhough both practiced on Mon. and were expected to play Tues.
With this, and the way they played tonight, I expect Det.+6.5 to be available at some point.

Lastly, do you have any theories as to why you haven't had as many totals this season?

BOLTA
kurby

 

[Truckin']

MEM is out for me

NJ a maybe but tight

Locked DET

HOU same boat as NJ

Will this be a Full 1U ? :mj09:

BOL & Thx

Should of been a 2-0 Yesterday (KNI:thefingerCKS)

 

[mikeyyy]

i agree

i agree

i'm definitely playing cinc in this spot...i recommended xav over the weekend.

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY: (YTD: 15-9 62.5%)

Week 1 5-2
Week 2 4-3
Week 3 4-3
Week 4 2-1

NCAA GEM(s) OF THE DAY:

Actually found two plays today and both are too tempting to pass up so I'm gonna take them both since Thursday looks like a pass day (maybe not, but right now it does)

Oregon St -2 @ Ill-Chicago

Two teams going in opposite directions, the Beavers have been road tested (W @ GW, L by 6 @ Neb, L by 4 @ TT), facing a team that is giving up over 72pts avg over their past 5 games while scoring only 59 avg past 5 games. The Beavers play extremely well on defense holding opponents 36% FG and under 60 points. Neither team presents much of a 3pt threat and both teams rebound well though Oregon St interior is superior in speed and talent.

Cincy -2 @ UAB

UAB is always dangerous and they are riding high at 8-1 this season, but let's look closer:

E. TN St 5-6
Mid TN 4-6
Fla A&M 1-10
Troy 5-5
Georgia 4-4
Jacksonville St 5-4
Samford 3-6
Kent St 5-4
Wisc-GB (1st game of year on neutral floor) 9-3

Cincy has been tested this year by Vandy, Maryland, Zaga, Miami OH, and Xavier and should be steaming off that 4 point 2OT loss. The quality of competition is not on par nor is the talent. UAB's lone prayer (go on fire from 3pt land). Cincy needs to right the ship before heading into conference and a win over an 8-1 (albeit weak 8-1) team will serve its purpose.

So on the record for 2 plays today. Both road fav's at -2.

BOL :00x1

 

[axp59]

Just read Tuesday's thread.
Enjoyed getting a glimpse at how hard Ax works.
So where do you figure more discipline is required - capping for a living or the Marine Corps?

Sorry to hear you might be moving on down the road. I hope it's not for poker - the mooses there are much more annoying (and frequent).

Looking at your chart, I expect Orl to open at 10.5 in the A.M., which would make Tor a possibility.

As for Det, it doesn't look like Bynum nor Gordon will play Wed., eventhough both practiced on Mon. and were expected to play Tues.
With this, and the way they played tonight, I expect Det.+6.5 to be available at some point.

Lastly, do you have any theories as to why you haven't had as many totals this season?

BOLTA
kurby

Well thanks pal, the days are long but it pays well.

The Corps had that little risk I don't have to deal with in sports wagering called dying. LOL It's only work when you'd rather be doing something else so I guess the Corps was harder since I wanted to be with my family. I've spent many Holidays away from home and even though you were always with your best buds, there wasn't a soul that didn't feel lonely during those quiet moments. I think about all those over there now and I know how they're feeling. It sucks.

I have a lot of projects going on right now. It's hard to do so many things at once. Going through a mid-life crisis and wanting to do everything and anything. LOL Poker is actually easy money I'm finding out. There are so many people that can't resist the urge to play bad hands. It a very common misgiving we see also in wagering. We have action junkies, poor money managers, lazy cappers, chasers, greedy winners and plain poor discipline. The thing is, I can't make money off these people "directly" with sports but in poker, I can. I've already read 5 poker books in the past few weeks and trying to figure out my game plan. It's just all fun for me and nothing I'd ever consider doing professionally.

You're asking the exact question I've been losing sleep over. I'm not exactly sure where my game play shifted from unders to dogs. Both have always offered more value IMHO. What I've discussed in the past regarding the under play applies equally to dog plays. It comes down to physics and work required to satisfy the opposite plays. ALL games begin as unders and with dogs covering. At the games natural state, absolutely no force is required to maintain the under and the dog cover. Work however is necessary to begin the journey to the over and to overcome the spread. This is as simple as applying Newton's 1st law of motion - "Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it." The fact that sports have a defensive element speaks to Newton's 3rd law of motion - "For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction." There's another team that's trying to keep you from scoring. A reaction to work effected and an active effort of prevention to reach the over and to cover the spread. In so many words, overs and favorites are un-natural plays since effort is require for both while unders and dogs require no effort at all, theoritically speaking.

While I struggle for the reason my game play shifted, I'm comfortable with the change. I look at the shift as a lateral adventageous move.

It's been quiet some time that I've gone on with these rants but I think it helps. FWIW, I think it's important for any capper to understand things outside the game. I always tell people to trust their gut. That gut feeling you have is the physical manisfistation of the collection of your personal experiences. No need to try to analyze it, your body is naturally doing it for you. Your body will never suggest a course of action which can negatively affect you or possibly harm you. It's just how nature works.

BOL

 

[axp59]

Will this be a Full 1U ? :mj09:

BOL & Thx

Should of been a 2-0 Yesterday (KNI:thefingerCKS)

Why do yo have your fingers crossed Truck? are you hoping for a 1U play? here's how I usually work my overnight plays. Some of these guys can tell ya I've always done this. I bet a fraction to lock in the action. Things happen overnight and we need an out if necessary. I recap games on game day and go full or buy back. There are times when I can't see doing either and just let the bet ride as is. For DET, I'm in 1/2U. I'll read the reports tomorrow and talk to a few people then I'll make the decision.

My friend Grindstone has been kind enough to track my plays since I went live on the MON after Thanksgiving. Dog plays are 86.36% and Overall is 65.63%. BTW, thanks GS. I mention this because if you want to go 1U, I'm still using the same routine to find these live dogs and it's not doing badly. BOL as always!

 

[axp59]

about to leave for the day:

after some final attention to details stuff, bought the rest on DET

Numbers look very good on bounce back games after giving up 50%+ FG%. Looks just as good being on the road. Looks even better when playing a sub .500 team. NOH is not fooling anybody (I hope), they are a sub .500 team.

after some smart money on NOH last night to get to 6, line is moving in the correct direction. It seems to be getting equal action at 5 and even looking for NOH money at times.

I like the 5.5 I previously quoted and will be my only play for the day.

BOL and catch up later in the evening.