NBA WED (HUMP DAY) 050609 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[JBrilman]

Starting the thread up for AX,

I am a homer when it comes to the Lakers so I will try not to talk about that game unless asked.

My initial lean and possibly only play today unless Ax comes out with something I agree with is:

2 TEAM TEASER

ORL +10
HOU +16

Just don't see either home team being able to cover that much chalk no matter how good they play.

 

[Ools]

Let's talk hoops...

Let's talk hoops...

Why are the Lakers so good? I just don't see them as that good of a team. Kobe is an absolute stud - no doubt. Gasol is a solid post player and faces the basket a little - but plays a little soft. Odom is hit and miss and certainly doesn't match up as well in this series. Bynum still not the same since injury - now 2 years in a row. Fisher old. And the rest of the crew - throw then in a bag with the rest of the NBA's bottom 1/2 of the players -- there isn't a personality or a threat coming off of that bench. I don't think you can win an NBA title or even a conference with this teams makeup.

And the one thing Houston can do is defend (especially now with MCcrybaby/McLazy hurt) - this teams works hard and as a unit. They have guys that can defend their scorers, not shut out, but defend. So then we look to the teir 2 for LA. Does Ariza, Walton, Shannon Brown or Farmer get anyone quaking. They need this unit to contribute. I don't think the Lakers can win this series shooting 44% again (which isn't horrible in NBA playoff standards) - so I see trouble.

Yao - to my surprize - has become the best center in the NBA. Does all facits of the game. Artest is physical, aggressive, intimidating and a pretty good offensive player. Brooks dynamic.

I think I have bet against houston most games in the playoffs, and they may lose tonight, but I think they can win series and can cover tonight.

 

[Ools]

possible parlay:

Boston ML and Houston +10

win 182 on 100 (at my book)

 

[axp59]

What happens with the C's and the Lakers tonight? Easy, they both win. Gm1 home losses aren't taken lightly and both clubs recover. ML parlay on both is a must play tonight. Alone in a 2-teamer is value and with a third wager can get you roughly +233. I originally posted these numbers on 4/20 and I believe they are useful with today's card. I'd like to add this year's numbers:

2009 4-0
April 18 gm 1 Chicago Bulls 105, Boston Celtics 103 (OT)
April 20 gm 2 Chicago Bulls 115, Boston Celtics 118

April 19 gm1 Philadelphia 76ers 100, Orlando Magic 98
April 22 gm2 Philadelphia 76ers 87, Orlando Magic 96

April 18 gm1 Dallas Mavericks 105, San Antonio Spurs 97
April 20 gm2 Dallas Mavericks 84, San Antonio Spurs 105

April 18 gm1 Houston Rockets 108, Portland Trail Blazers 81
April 21 gm2 Houston Rockets 103, Portland Trail Blazers 107


Gm2 after Gm1 Home Loss NOW 18-3 86% last 5 years


2008 1-1
April 20 1 Philadelphia 76ers 90, Detroit Pistons 86
April 23 2 Philadelphia 76ers 88, Detroit Pistons 105

April 19 1 Utah Jazz 93, Houston Rockets 82
April 21 2 Utah Jazz 90, Houston Rockets 84

2007 4-0
April 21 1 New Jersey Nets 96, Toronto Raptors 91
April 24 2 New Jersey Nets 83, Toronto Raptors 89

April 22 1 Golden State Warriors 97, Dallas Mavericks 85
April 25 2 Golden State Warriors 99, Dallas Mavericks 112

April 22 1 Denver Nuggets 95, San Antonio Spurs 89
April 25 2 Denver Nuggets 88, San Antonio Spurs 97

May 6 1 San Antonio Spurs 111, Phoenix Suns 106
May 8 2 San Antonio Spurs 81, Phoenix Suns 101

2006 4-0
1 April 23 Indiana 90 New Jersey 88
2 April 25 Indiana 75 New Jersey 90

1 May 8 New Jersey 100 Miami 88
2 May 10 New Jersey 89 Miami 111

1 May 23 Miami 91 Detroit 86
2 May 25 Miami 88 Detroit 92

1 May 24 Phoenix 121 Dallas 118
2 May 26 Phoenix 95 Dallas 105

2005 2-2
Game 1 Houston 98, Dallas 86
Game 2 Houston 113, Dallas 111

Game 1 Denver 93, San Antonio 87
Game 2 Denver 76, San Antonio 104

Game 1 San Antonio 121, Phoenix 114
Game 2 San Antonio 111, Phoenix 108

Game 1 Detroit 90, Miami 81
Game 2 Detroit 86, Miami 92

2004 3-0
Game 1 Sacramento 104, Minnesota 98
Game 2 Sacramento 89, Minnesota 94

Game 1 Los Angeles 97, Minnesota 88
Game 2 Los Angeles 71, Minnesota 89

Game 1 Detroit 87, Los Angeles 75
Game 2 Detroit 91, Los Angeles 99

 

[JBrilman]

So which total are you looking at?

Lakers over or
Boston under?

 

[KillerKardoogan]

Mornin' Ax, JBril et al.

Puting baseball on the back burner has really helped me. I've even hit 4 totals in a row (must be the company i keep).

So where u at with the C's total?
I'm liking this one a lot.

:0corn

 

[Ools]

What happens with the C's and the Lakers tonight? Easy, they both win. Gm1 home losses aren't taken lightly and both clubs recover. ML parlay on both is a must play tonight. Alone in a 2-teamer is value and with a third wager can get you roughly +233.

What are you looking for as the 3rd play?? I have -200 and -700 on my ML - how they compare to what you are seeing? If I pair up to a -110, I only get to +169?

 

[JBrilman]

Killer,

U seein under too?

 

[axp59]

What are you looking for as the 3rd play?? I have -200 and -700 on my ML - how they compare to what you are seeing? If I pair up to a -110, I only get to +169?

that's' not right on a 3-team parlay with -200, -700 and -110. that should be +227.

 

[KillerKardoogan]

JBril, i have the over.
Take this for what it's worth though, cause i dont do totals.

 

[JBrilman]

Ax?

 

[canuckfan77]

:director: calling Ax

 

[Griffin8s]

So which total are you looking at?

Lakers over or
Boston under?

I'm thinking Lakers over myself. They came out so flat in that last game and it went to 192. 193.5 sounds like a gift to me. Not taking a side on this one.

Now lets talk about this C's game. Got to 185 in the last game with some poor shooting by the C's 2 or 3 of their players with very low scoring numbers. But one thing I keep reminding myself. not 1 point made in the first 2 minutes of that game. All we needed was one bucket each in that 2 minutes and over she goes. So this is where I am on the total of this game.:shrug: Now on the other hand how can you not take the C's at even -4.5. This is a must win for them and Orl will just settle for atleast we got on of these games in Boston. Even if close game and C's are up Orl will play the foul game Boston will make their FT and give us a more then 5 point win.

Great job by Ax and all of you yesterday, keep it rolling!!:00hour

 

[axp59]

Here's the problem with the C's Under play tonight:
The number was 3 short the last time around. Consider what makes up 3 points.

FG% last game

ORL 43.2% expected 42.1%-44.4% right on
BOS 38.5% expected 40.1%-47.2% off 2%-9%

3FG% last game

ORL 33.3% expected 36.5%-38% off 3%-5%
BOS 34.8% expected 37.3%-41.3% off 2%-6%

If both teams play 'average', this number is beat. I'm not calling the over but I'm leaning that way.

IMHO

Still liking other options. Back to work.

 

[axp59]

I'm thinking Lakers over myself. They came out so flat in that last game and it went to 192. 193.5 sounds like a gift to me. Not taking a side on this one.

Now lets talk about this C's game. Got to 185 in the last game with some poor shooting by the C's 2 or 3 of their players with very low scoring numbers. But one thing I keep reminding myself. not 1 point made in the first 2 minutes of that game. All we needed was one bucket each in that 2 minutes and over she goes. So this is where I am on the total of this game.:shrug: Now on the other hand how can you not take the C's at even -4.5. This is a must win for them and Orl will just settle for atleast we got on of these games in Boston. Even if close game and C's are up Orl will play the foul game Boston will make their FT and give us a more then 5 point win.

Great job by Ax and all of you yesterday, keep it rolling!!:00hour

You are so f'in on with your totals analysis of this game Gunny.

 

[Ools]

that's' not right on a 3-team parlay with -200, -700 and -110. that should be +227.

Here it is (not played yet though) - but I agree that this site I use doesn't pay these right. I need a new book!!

WagerType: Parlay
Date: Team:
May 06 MLB [901] TOTAL o9-110 (ATL vrs FLA) [D LOWE -R/G TAYLOR -L]
May 06 NBA [712] BOSTON -200
May 06 NBA [714] LA LAKERS -700
Risking 100 USD To Win 169 USD

 

[axp59]

That sucks Ools, need a new book buddy.

 

[Ools]

I also am taking Celt at +200 for the series now - if they win tonight that will be even money at best.

 

[joe_shmoe]

I also am taking Celt at +200 for the series now - if they win tonight that will be even money at best.

I highly doubt that it will be even money at best when the series was basically even money to begin with. Just my 2 cents. GL Ools.

 

[mpnyc76]

what number u guys getting the celts total at? my book has 189 - that seems low as hell