NBA WEDNESDAY 120209-Early Thoughts and Value Hunting

[pkkingster15]

Hey guys.

Thought I'd start this up. I was across the street, and opened up one of Canada_Chris's threads, I'm wondering if any of you guys have seen it. I'll post some of his thoughts here. Just wondering if there's anything to make of it. It was posted on Monday, so the numbers could have changed.

"Whe the line goes down - When a favorite opens at -3 or -3.5 and the line goes down, the Underdog is 4-1 this season.

When the line goes up - When a favorite opens at -3 or -3.5 and the lines goes up, the favorite is 8-1 this year.

When the line reamins the same - When the line holds steady, the favorites are 4-2 this season.

I think that's pretty interesting. Aside from when the line remains steady, you're looking at a solid 12-2 record when you like at the line going either up or down."
- Canada Chris

 

[pkkingster15]

On a capping note, I've locked in one (NJN +8) and am keeping an eye on the Phi/OKC under 198. Waiting for some thoughts from you guys, BOL all!

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

Watching the Toronto/Atlanta total OVER

Watching the Pacers/Kings total OVER

Also Phoenix +7.5

 

[ChumpChange]

I'm looking at two plays tonight ...

Orl / NY under 209

Cleve / Phoex under 213

Good Luck Everyone .................

 

[axp59]

greetings all,

I'm biting as any dog would. Will Play the Suns +. Here's my very short read:

Cavs have to please the big men tonight. I believe they're going to force plays for Shaq to somehow have a good game against his former team. I believe they are going to try and please Z so he can be a happy camper again. It's no big secret that Shaq has thrown off the flow of this team and forcing the action is a negative for any team. Remember the other 2 games PHO lost by more than 10 this year. They got blown out by ORL (by 22) and then easily beat the C's in BOS. The other game was a loss to LAL and then won (albeit by 1) against TOR at home. They looked awful against NYK and this isn't sitting well with the leaders on this team. This is also fresh in the public's mind and thinking CLE can easily dispose of this team and looks like the books are calling it that way. PHO is a good team and giving them 2+ possessions is a good deal. Win or lose, I like the side my money is on.

PHO+7.5

BOLTA

 

[easterntimezone]

greetings all,

I'm biting as any dog would. Will Play the Suns +. Here's my very short read:

Cavs have to please the big men tonight. I believe they're going to force plays for Shaq to somehow have a good game against his former team. I believe they are going to try and please Z so he can be a happy camper again. It's no big secret that Shaq has thrown off the flow of this team and forcing the action is a negative for any team. Remember the other 2 games PHO lost by more than 10 this year. They got blown out by ORL (by 22) and then easily beat the C's in BOS. The other game was a loss to LAL and then won (albeit by 1) against TOR at home. They looked awful against NYK and this isn't sitting well with the leaders on this team. This is also fresh in the public's mind and thinking CLE can easily dispose of this team and looks like the books are calling it that way. PHO is a good team and giving them 2+ possessions is a good deal. Win or lose, I like the side my money is on.

PHO+7.5

BOLTA

Concur entirely; based on impressions gathered from an alternate site, one also could see last night's defeat to New York in 1 of 2 ways (or a combination of both):

a) The Suns gave D'Antoni an early Christmas gift by playing well below their capability.
b) The Suns would like to show bitter rivals Dallas how to take care of business in Cleveland against a suspect Cavaliers squad w/ the exception of James.

All in all, definitely in play. Best of luck to all.

As for Canada_Chris, his reasoning is always a welcome read and is well worth exploring IMO FWIW.

 

[ReadySetGo]

Like the Suns as well - GLTA.

 

[Griffin8s]

greetings all,

I'm biting as any dog would. Will Play the Suns +. Here's my very short read:

Cavs have to please the big men tonight. I believe they're going to force plays for Shaq to somehow have a good game against his former team. I believe they are going to try and please Z so he can be a happy camper again. It's no big secret that Shaq has thrown off the flow of this team and forcing the action is a negative for any team. Remember the other 2 games PHO lost by more than 10 this year. They got blown out by ORL (by 22) and then easily beat the C's in BOS. The other game was a loss to LAL and then won (albeit by 1) against TOR at home. They looked awful against NYK and this isn't sitting well with the leaders on this team. This is also fresh in the public's mind and thinking CLE can easily dispose of this team and looks like the books are calling it that way. PHO is a good team and giving them 2+ possessions is a good deal. Win or lose, I like the side my money is on.

PHO+7.5

BOLTA

I have to agree also Ax. Even though my homer seems like all the talk here these last few days is why didn't Coach play Z for any amount of time in the last game. Like it's a big deal or something more then lets say winning a game. Maybe have that on their mind some much will look past this Suns team. I think I'm liking the over here even more but line going down..????? :shrug: Any thoughts on that?

 

[axp59]

I think I'm liking the over here even more but line going down..????? :shrug: Any thoughts on that?

FWIW Gunny.

All and I mean all my number crunching points to the UNDER in this game BUT, when I threw in the situational and fundamental game-play analysis, this looks like an OVER game.

Run the stats and you'll find that 213 is high
Run the trends and you'll find that 213 is high
Dig deep and think about how these teams play and 213 or more is about right. I was actually going to play the UNDER as my POD today but I just can't get over the fact that PHO has no D and I've seen the Cavs being content with running and gunning with their opponents.

BOL with your action

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Final card

Pistons @ Bulls O183
Pacers @ Kings U215.5
Mavs -7.5
Pacers ML
Grizzlies ML

BOL :0corn
Joe

 

[pkkingster15]

Locked in three plays.

Nets +8
Phili/OKC under 198
Suns +7.5

BOL everyone, love the chatter. I also was actually leaning on the over in this game, but seeing that the stats point to under, I'll leave it as a no play.

 

[dumbbet]

Pacers

Pacers

Good luck tonight , but on other side on the Pacers think it is over

 

[Slicer]

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY (9-3 YTD)

Week 1 (5-2)
Week 2 (4-1)

Wednesday: Illinois vs Clemson -5

I bounced back and forth today between Duke & Clemson as to which to make the Gem of the Day since I felt both would win (and both are huge public % favs) but ultimately it bore down to 2 things:

1. Wisconsin plays defense, Illinois doesn't
2. Duke on the road, Clemson @ home.

I've lost 1 game this season thanks to Clemson, so if they lose tonight I'm gonna have to burn a stuffed tiger behind my house, but I feel that Clemson will play to a higher level tonight in the confines of Littlejohn which is as intimidating of an arena as the Dean Dome or any court where the students are on top of you (with the exception of Duke which I consider the hardest court in America to win on). I like the fact that Booker hasn't been playing his best the past 2 games, look for a turnaround from him tonight. Illinois is a young team but still potent but the atmosphere of Littlejohn may rattle their cages tonight.

FWIW: I did bet Duke -4.5 1/2 unit, but my GEM OF THE DAY and full unit bet is going on Clemson @ -5, and I'm joining the crew on Pho +7.5 against the cavs.

Have a great day and hopefully we'll see each other at the window

 

[CoFred]

Ax,

Is Phoenix +7.5 your POD and are you playing it for 1U like you normally play your unders?

 

[axp59]

CoFred,
my only play tonight bud. 1U

BOL

 

[ChumpChange]

AX ........ Hmmm I hope I'm wrong ( not a play for me either way ) but everything points to the Cavs minus the 7.5 tonight ... the Cavs will be coming off a team meeting tonight before the game regarding the value of Z to the team and O'Neil will have his dancing shoes on tonight facing his old team that's just anxious to get home from a few days on the road !!! The under total is my play but I hope you cash, as well !!!

Good Luck ..............

 

[barts185]

going down the board

really want to bet against NYK here, but just too many points, so pass.

PHO +7.5

lean DAL, but not willing to lay more than 5 here, so pass.

CHI -7

DET/CHI over 182

lean MIN

small OKC -6

HOU -2

Good Luck,
Bart

 

[axp59]

AX ........ Hmmm I hope I'm wrong ( not a play for me either way ) but everything points to the Cavs minus the 7.5 tonight ... the Cavs will be coming off a team meeting tonight before the game regarding the value of Z to the team and O'Neil will have his dancing shoes on tonight facing his old team that's just anxious to get home from a few days on the road !!! The under total is my play but I hope you cash, as well !!!

Good Luck ..............

Thanks Chump. Always value your opinion. Good luck with your UNDER, I'm locked in so I'm going to ride this one out. :toast:

 

[arabmoney]

hey ax, any reasoning as to why u like phoneix, the public is all over them catching this high number, line was set at 6 down bet up to 7.5 with majority on the suns, this reminds me of the portland/miami game last night public was on miami with the line at 7 and miami won outright right, i think it was 51% to 49% in favor of miami, but tonights game is 63% to 37% in favor of the suns, thanx

 

[dumbbet]

To me it is Shaq is in the lineup and will slow Cavs. Suns will try and run all night, with a +7.5 need to go with Suns. Cavs not the same team as last season, no real up tempo