Turning a nice little profit thus far.... 4-0 on the main wagers... Lost a couple of units on some lesser sides.. Onward...
10 am Div 2 4A
(15-0) W-Orange Stark Mustangs vs (13-1) Sweetwater Mustangs....
Stark -21...over Sweetwater.... 2 units...LOSS... (Final: WOS 24 - Sweetwater 6...Sweet scored on a fumble return so WOS D did their job) *Yes, that is a lot of chalk for a HSF team in a championship game. Unfortunately, this is the only way to play it. If you don't want to risk the chalk it might be better to pass. I had compiled a couple of pages of notes, but really this comes down to the Orange Stark Defense.
Why am I laying the 21? Where do I start. From all accounts, evidently the Mustangs of Stark might be the best in the state. In 5 playoff games, opponents have only managed a total of 4 Tds. Orange has outscored its opponents 787-63 on the season. While the team averages 52.5 ppg, they only allow a straitjacket 4.2 ppg. The D has pitched 9 shut-outs. They have taken to calling themselves the chain gang defense. Their winning by an average of 48 points. They have beaten all takers by at least 24 points, only 2 teams kept it under 33 points. That is some outstanding D and as far as I'm concerned they can call themselves anything they wish after such dominant and suffocating D. In fact, they never even gave up a point until the 6 game in. In last week's semi - final match, they held the vaunted Slot T offense to less than 3 yards per carry. The Geronimo Navarro team was considered one of the best in the division. They walked away black and blue by a 49-7 score. The offense is led by QB Jack Dallas who has led the team to 26 straight wins.... **Not a bad name for a QB from The State of Texas. In last week's game, he threw for 161 yards w/3 Tds. Helping out is WR Keron Hancock who hauled in 2 TD passes. Also, RB Jeremiah Shaw has multiple 100 yard games, and is a Div 1 recruit.
Sweetwater comes in ranked as the #2 team in the Division. They average 45.7 ppg and allow 17.3 ppg. They are led by their dual threat QB Chris Thomas who has recorded 2,750 yards passing, and nearly 1,000 rushing, with a total of 52 Tds. You can bet that Orange will game plan for him. On offense, the team is up tempo with a group of extremely quick, and shifty receivers. In last week's game Sweetwater had to have 5 Int to turn the game around... to get the win. They may have shot their wad on that emotional win.
For Orange its all about the D. They are playing in their 3rd straight Title game, and won it last year. This game will be obvious early, to see if Sweetwater can put points on the board and stay close going into the 4th quarter of something no other team has managed to do. The line opened at -14' and quickly was bid up to -21, which shouldn't matter if Orange keeps its display of excellence on the Defense. I wouldn't be shocked if Orange pitches another shut out, while Sweetwater has given up points this year, this is earmarked for a big blow out and the Mustangs 2nd consecutive title.
2pm Div 2 4A
(12-1) Wylie (Abilene) Bulldogs vs (12-2) Carthage Bulldogs.....
Play Wylie +3' over Carthage... 2 units...LOSS of (Final: Carthage 31 - Wylie 17)*The game before this one was a battle between Mustangs. This one is a battle of the canines.
Two fairly evenly matched teams with 2 veteran coaches. Carthage Coach Scott Surratt is 40-5 in all playoff games. Carthage is appearing in its 6th state championship. They are 4-1 in those title games. Carthage averages 34.1 ppg while allowing 22.9. Wylie averages 39.3 ppg while giving 13 ppg. These two are the #1 and #2 teams in their division. Carthage QB SR Kason Davis is 6'2" 180 lbs. He is 205 of 355 for 2,887 yards w/29 TDs...but does have 8 Ints. RB Keontay Ingram Jr is 6'0" 198 lbs. He has 292 carries, for 2,045 yards w/29 TDs, also has 452 yards catches w/2 TDs. Another athlete on the team that helps the offense is WR Dewaylon Ingraham a 6'0" 160 lbs (57 catches for 910 yards w/8 TDs).
On Wylie, the D is their strength and the D line is nasty, athletic, disruptive, and creates havoc. They operate out of multiple fronts, that includes, 3-4 and 4-4 hybrid. Their strength is stopping the run, something Carthage does 55% of the time. On offense, Carthage is led by QB Zack Smith SR 5'10" 160 (84 of 198 for 1,093 yards w/17 TDs. and 120 carries on the ground for 647 yards w/11 more TDs. Helping is RB Brooks Peppers Sr 6'0" 190 lbs, 180 carries for 1, 466 yards w/17 TDs and 19 catches for 242 yards w/1 TD. WR Tyler Henson Sr 6'0" 180 lbs (22 catches for 337 yards w/7 TDs). On D Wylie averages nearly 4 turnovers per game. They will strip the ball and look for opportunities in the air for pick 6. They had 37 turnovers on the season. Wylie relys on a huge Oline. Wylie QB Zack Smith actually made the move this year to give up his corner back spot to run the offense as QB. Wylie cleared a major hurdle in their playoff game with their nemesis Argyle to finally beat them.
It was Carthage that finished 3rd in their district and was lucky to be in the playoffs. They made the most of it and have improved each week to run the table to the state championship. A very impressive feature... No doubt. Still, I'm backing the Bulldogs (joke... Their both Bulldogs)... I'm taking the points with the short underdog.. Gl