NCAA Football Picks 12-1-07

[RollTide72]

Took three tough beats last week. Overall record is 12-8-1.

Army vs Navy -14 & OVER 65.5

Since 2002, Navy has scored 58, 34, 42, 42 & 26 points in their meetings with Army. Navy has covered in 7 or the last 10 meetings against Army. Navy's defense is not stopping ANYONE. The fewest points they have allowed all year was 20 points against the Air Force back in September. I mean, they allowed Notre Dame to score 44 points! On the flip side, Army comes into today's game on a 5 game losing streak and have allowed 201 points to be scored in those games. :scared Army has only scored 68 points in the last 5 games against Army. I definitely believe that Army will be able to score some points today due to the porous Navy defense... but the Midshipmen are going to have a field day against the Cadets defense. I see this game having a combined score of 72 - 75 points.

 

[RollTide72]

UCLA @ USC OVER 46

This is my anti-trend play for the day. All trends point to the UNDER hitting in today's matchup, but as Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend!"

In four of their last five meetings the Trojans and Bruins have combined for 73, 69, 53 & 85 points. USC has won 7 of the last 10 meetings and I guarantee you that Pete Carroll is chomping at the bit for some payback against the Bruins for last season's loss. UCLA's 13-9 win ended USC's national championship hopes and was only the Trojan's 4th loss in their last 59 games. I don't have the guts to pull the trigger on laying 20 points, but I don't think USC will have many problems scoring and also don't think that Carroll will call off the dogs when and if it gets ugly.

 

[RollTide72]

Oregon State +1.5 @ Oregon

It's the Civil War today between the Beavers and Ducks in Eugene. To me this game is very simple to cap. When Ducks QB Dennis Dixon went down against Arizona almost 2 weeks ago, so did Oregon's chances of a possible National Championship, BCS Bowl Bid or the Rose Bowl. When backup QB Brady Leaf went down in the 1st Qtr. against UCLA last week any hopes of winning another game this year went out the window. Freshman 3rd and 4th string QBs Justin Roper and Cody Kempt combined to complete 7 of 28 passes for 60 yards and three interceptions. There are no trends that can cap two injuries to your starting and backup QB. I know this is a rivalry game and it's at Autzen Stadium, but for the Ducks to have a chance, Coach Mike Bellotti will need to have several tricks up his sleeve. Coach Mike Riley and the Beavers come into today's game winners of 5 of their last 6 games and looking for their first win in Eugene in a long time. I don't see that being a problem today. Beavers win big.

Just called my local to place my bets and the Oregon line has moved from Oregon +1 to -1.5. :scared

 

[RollTide72]

Pittsburgh @ West Virginia OVER 59

WVU was my anti-trend play last week (-20.5) and it hit easily. I see the same result against Pitt as last week against UCONN. The Mountaineers are only one win away from a spot in the National Championship game. WVU hit the over last week on their own and could possibly do it again today against the Panthers. Today is probably the swan song for Dave Wannstedt as coach of Pitt. They could bring back Tony Dorsett, Dan Marino and Johnny Majors and it wouldn't matter. WVU is going to win BIG today, scoring early and often. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 games in this series played at WVU. OVER is 11-3 in Mountaineers last 14 games as a home favorite. Again, they will be burning sofas late into the night in Morgantown. WVU wins HUGE! I'm leaning towards laying the 28, but would like to see that drop to 27.5 before I pound it.

 

[RollTide72]

Washington @ Hawaii -14 & OVER 73

The Warriors are one win away from being eligible for a BCS bowl berth and QB Colt Brennan is licking his chops to add to his already incredible passing numbers. Hawaii's last four games have gone under but I believe that Coach June Jones will score as much as possible to ensure that the voters on the Mainland take notice and keep the Warriors in position for a BCS bowl bid. The Huskies gave up 42 points last week to Washington State :scared I can't wait to see with Hawaii does to the UW defense, which ranks 86th in passing and 99th in overall yards given up. Hawaii ranks 2nd nationally in passing and leads the nation in points scored. This game will be a shootout and while the Huskies may keep it close for a half, Hawaii runs away in the second with Brennan throwing for 6 TDs. Hawaii wins by at least 21 and the total is in the 80s.

 

[RollTide72]

My luck might be finally turning on the teaser front.

Looking at:

UCLA/USC OVER 40 & Hawaii -8

UCLA/USC OVER 40 & Pitt/WVU OVER 53

LSU -1 & Oregon State +7.5

 

[RollTide72]

Today's leans :shrug:

Virginia Tech -4.5

The Hokies have been pointing to this possible rematch ever since the Eagles scored twice in the last 3 minutes a month ago to steal a victory in Blacksburg. Sometimes I say be careful what you wish for, but me thinks that they will play a full 60 minutes today.

LSU -7

I would like to think that playing for your conference championship and a Sugar bowl birth would be enough motivation for the Bayou Bengals, but with news reports of Bo Pellini going to Nebraska and Les Miles going to Michigan, will the Tiger's hearts be in the game? I think they will.

Oklahoma -3

As much as I would love for the Sooners to lose, it's hard for me to pick against Bob Stoops in a rematch, especially against a team he has already beaten once this year.

Again, I don't count my leans against my totals for the year.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE TODAY!