final card
1) (big :firing: ) toledo (-13.5) over ohio
2) florida state (-3) over virginia
3) hawaii (+4.5) over utep
4) iowa (+2) over ohio state
2nd half: michigan/illinois under 27. can see illini getting conservative and trying to use the wind/homefield to their advantage
2nd half: ball state (+13) over bowling green. im running the risk of look like an idiot on this one, because with the way bsu is playing, they might not score. but brandon has said that he tried to keep the temple game from getting out of hand a few weeks ago and that he doesnt like running it up. we'll see. ball state is terrible, but 2nd/3rd stringers saw action in their last blowout, so hopefully bsu can minimize the damage and punch one or two across. plus, i dont expect bg to be going to the air in the 2nd half since conditions are less than favorable and game is well in hand.
2nd half: akron and central florida over 28
zips offense is one score away from ucf being in full catch-up mode. and akron holding a team to less than 20pts just isnt gonna happen. spang liked the over here to begin with, so im grab this favorable number at half
2nd half: florida state and virginia under 23
noles defense is dominating right now. i think were going to see a lot of the fsu power game in the 2nd half, and even though uva is gonna be throwing the ball, fsu defense doesnt give up big chunks at a time.
scratched
(no play) kent and marshall over. got too freaked out with the weather expected in ohio for the weekend. strong winds expected in kent, which could make for some conservative offense from pruett. be be scratching a winner, but not worth the risk anymore.
coat tails
cwood's michigan under 54.5
sun tzu- whaddaya got for me?
(lost thursday with lou-under)
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toledo vs. ohio university
rocket offense the last month:
* offense averaging 49.5 points per game L4 gms
* a ridiculous 560 yds/gm L4 gms
* 1294 yds of offense in their last two games
* gradkowski in his L4 games is 93 of 115 for 1353 yds. 14 TDs. 0 INTs. :scared
ostensibly, this looks like a great offense (toledo) facing a stingy defense (ohio). but ohio's defense, while improved, is hardly as good as their numbers would indicate.
these are the teams ohio has played, with their rank in total offense (of all D1 teams):
* pitt (84 of 117)
* miami (55 of 117)
* buffalo (90 of 117)
* kentucky (107 of 117)
* marshall (117, dead last, of 117)
there is one good offensive team in that above group -- miami. and when the redhawks spread ohio out, the bobcats couldnt stop them (268 through the air, 146 on the ground)
thats the statistical side of capping this one. fundamentally, this one favors toledo as well.
ohio has expended a lot of energy the last two weeks. i give credit where credit is due -- i know kentucky is nothing special in the sec, but that still was a good win for the ohio program as a DD dog. last week, they should have beaten marshall straight up but lost when they missed a last second field goal from just about point blank range. i gotta think that loss lingers and ohio travels to toledo a little flat.
ohio is very similar to nebraska. theyve been an option team for the last god-knows-how-many-years. and theyre finally experimenting with the forward pass and opening up their offense a lot more. the problem for the bobcats? its the same problem nebraska has. theyre trying to run a pass offense with option personnel. in time, ohio is going to be a pretty solid team. but their schedule has been very kind to them; none of the teams theyve played (save for miami) had the offensive firepower to blow them out (and the redhawks did).
right now, ohio is walking into a buzzsaw. im not going to out-think myself with the (relatively) low line. that line is there because ohio has been a solid spread team up to this point and a cursory glance at some stats shows ohio's defense to be stingy. its not. their defensive success has been the byproduct of facing some incredibly lame offenses. toledo is just in a zone right now. and its not just gradkowski playing well (although 80% completions the last month is tough to top). the toledo rushing game is churning out yards as well, making the balanced UT offense almost impossible for opposing defenses to stop consistently.
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florida st vs. virginia ....cwood said it best. little brother vs big brother in the acc. virginia is an outstanding team, but theyre not gonna get it done in tallahassee. cavaliers have a great rushing game, but theyre going to be running into a brick wall, as fsu is domiant against the run. fsu owns this series (11-1 SU vs cavaliers) and have won 48 of 49 home games against acc teams. virginia is for real, but im not buying that this is a "down year" for florida state. this is a pretty damn good team with a great defense. last weeks close call vs syracuse shouldnt be that surprising. theyre not the first team, nor will they be the last, to struggle mightily in that dome.
hawaii vs. utep ...this sort of follows my jacksonville (nfl) logic. sometimes early in the season, teams perform well in an 'extended' dog role. they sneak up on teams week after week and nobody expects anything from them. theres no pressure. then all the sudden theyre installed as a chalk, and they fail miserably. jags were dog/dog/dog/dog and then once they went chalk - BAM -- back to earth. also, from a fundamental perspective, the miner pass defense is atrocious. arizona state threw for 356 yards on the utep defense. then boise came right back and threw for 392 yards. what is timmy chang gonna throw for against this porous secondary? 450? 475? hawaii is always a risky bet anywhere in the contiguous 48, but i cant justify utep as the favorite, especially with the bows ringing up over 1100 yards of total offense the last two weeks. hawaii was abysmal in weeks 1/2, but their week off really helped them and the last two weeks have been run-n-shoot clinics.
iowa vs. ohio state ..... buckeyes are a mess right now. as much as i like tressel, hes starting to just spin crazy shit to the media. its obvious that even he is a little perplexed by whats gone on in recent weeks. the bucks offense is simply pathetic. this week, a few players have started to speak out and suggest that a qb change from zwick to smith would help inject life into a dead offense. i think zwick is gonna be a good qb in time, but its starting to look like the team is not totally behind him, and thats not good. iowa has had an extra week to prepare, and osu comes in staggering. bucks have caught some fortunate breaks the L2 or 3 years. i think their weaknesses are starting to get exposed and are starting to show up more now that the bounces and breaks arent all going in their favor.
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1) (big :firing: ) toledo (-13.5) over ohio
2) florida state (-3) over virginia
3) hawaii (+4.5) over utep
4) iowa (+2) over ohio state
2nd half: michigan/illinois under 27. can see illini getting conservative and trying to use the wind/homefield to their advantage
2nd half: ball state (+13) over bowling green. im running the risk of look like an idiot on this one, because with the way bsu is playing, they might not score. but brandon has said that he tried to keep the temple game from getting out of hand a few weeks ago and that he doesnt like running it up. we'll see. ball state is terrible, but 2nd/3rd stringers saw action in their last blowout, so hopefully bsu can minimize the damage and punch one or two across. plus, i dont expect bg to be going to the air in the 2nd half since conditions are less than favorable and game is well in hand.
2nd half: akron and central florida over 28
zips offense is one score away from ucf being in full catch-up mode. and akron holding a team to less than 20pts just isnt gonna happen. spang liked the over here to begin with, so im grab this favorable number at half
2nd half: florida state and virginia under 23
noles defense is dominating right now. i think were going to see a lot of the fsu power game in the 2nd half, and even though uva is gonna be throwing the ball, fsu defense doesnt give up big chunks at a time.
scratched
(no play) kent and marshall over. got too freaked out with the weather expected in ohio for the weekend. strong winds expected in kent, which could make for some conservative offense from pruett. be be scratching a winner, but not worth the risk anymore.
coat tails
cwood's michigan under 54.5
sun tzu- whaddaya got for me?
(lost thursday with lou-under)
===============================
toledo vs. ohio university
rocket offense the last month:
* offense averaging 49.5 points per game L4 gms
* a ridiculous 560 yds/gm L4 gms
* 1294 yds of offense in their last two games
* gradkowski in his L4 games is 93 of 115 for 1353 yds. 14 TDs. 0 INTs. :scared
ostensibly, this looks like a great offense (toledo) facing a stingy defense (ohio). but ohio's defense, while improved, is hardly as good as their numbers would indicate.
these are the teams ohio has played, with their rank in total offense (of all D1 teams):
* pitt (84 of 117)
* miami (55 of 117)
* buffalo (90 of 117)
* kentucky (107 of 117)
* marshall (117, dead last, of 117)
there is one good offensive team in that above group -- miami. and when the redhawks spread ohio out, the bobcats couldnt stop them (268 through the air, 146 on the ground)
thats the statistical side of capping this one. fundamentally, this one favors toledo as well.
ohio has expended a lot of energy the last two weeks. i give credit where credit is due -- i know kentucky is nothing special in the sec, but that still was a good win for the ohio program as a DD dog. last week, they should have beaten marshall straight up but lost when they missed a last second field goal from just about point blank range. i gotta think that loss lingers and ohio travels to toledo a little flat.
ohio is very similar to nebraska. theyve been an option team for the last god-knows-how-many-years. and theyre finally experimenting with the forward pass and opening up their offense a lot more. the problem for the bobcats? its the same problem nebraska has. theyre trying to run a pass offense with option personnel. in time, ohio is going to be a pretty solid team. but their schedule has been very kind to them; none of the teams theyve played (save for miami) had the offensive firepower to blow them out (and the redhawks did).
right now, ohio is walking into a buzzsaw. im not going to out-think myself with the (relatively) low line. that line is there because ohio has been a solid spread team up to this point and a cursory glance at some stats shows ohio's defense to be stingy. its not. their defensive success has been the byproduct of facing some incredibly lame offenses. toledo is just in a zone right now. and its not just gradkowski playing well (although 80% completions the last month is tough to top). the toledo rushing game is churning out yards as well, making the balanced UT offense almost impossible for opposing defenses to stop consistently.
==============================
florida st vs. virginia ....cwood said it best. little brother vs big brother in the acc. virginia is an outstanding team, but theyre not gonna get it done in tallahassee. cavaliers have a great rushing game, but theyre going to be running into a brick wall, as fsu is domiant against the run. fsu owns this series (11-1 SU vs cavaliers) and have won 48 of 49 home games against acc teams. virginia is for real, but im not buying that this is a "down year" for florida state. this is a pretty damn good team with a great defense. last weeks close call vs syracuse shouldnt be that surprising. theyre not the first team, nor will they be the last, to struggle mightily in that dome.
hawaii vs. utep ...this sort of follows my jacksonville (nfl) logic. sometimes early in the season, teams perform well in an 'extended' dog role. they sneak up on teams week after week and nobody expects anything from them. theres no pressure. then all the sudden theyre installed as a chalk, and they fail miserably. jags were dog/dog/dog/dog and then once they went chalk - BAM -- back to earth. also, from a fundamental perspective, the miner pass defense is atrocious. arizona state threw for 356 yards on the utep defense. then boise came right back and threw for 392 yards. what is timmy chang gonna throw for against this porous secondary? 450? 475? hawaii is always a risky bet anywhere in the contiguous 48, but i cant justify utep as the favorite, especially with the bows ringing up over 1100 yards of total offense the last two weeks. hawaii was abysmal in weeks 1/2, but their week off really helped them and the last two weeks have been run-n-shoot clinics.
iowa vs. ohio state ..... buckeyes are a mess right now. as much as i like tressel, hes starting to just spin crazy shit to the media. its obvious that even he is a little perplexed by whats gone on in recent weeks. the bucks offense is simply pathetic. this week, a few players have started to speak out and suggest that a qb change from zwick to smith would help inject life into a dead offense. i think zwick is gonna be a good qb in time, but its starting to look like the team is not totally behind him, and thats not good. iowa has had an extra week to prepare, and osu comes in staggering. bucks have caught some fortunate breaks the L2 or 3 years. i think their weaknesses are starting to get exposed and are starting to show up more now that the bounces and breaks arent all going in their favor.
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