ncaa football: saturday october 22nd ........

gman2

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mac notes for the week

this week: from a betting perspective, lots of value in a handful of the lines within the conference this saturday. from a fans perspective, dumping hot sauce in ones eyes might be better than watching some of these matchups.

last week: a very very good week in the conference. still havent lost a mac side all season through seven weeks. mac totals got back on track with ball state and toledo under.

while the weather and high winds certainly helped level the playing field for buffalo the last two weeks, it is worth noting that they held two of the best passing offenses in the mac (akron and bowling green) well below their season averages. the bulls held akron's getsy to a miserable 12/32 for 145 yards, and they also did a very respectable job on omar jacobs, who had the worst statistical game of his college career -- 18/34 for 187 yards and 1 touchdown/ 2 interceptions. (on a side note, those are hardly terrible numbers, so it goes to show how high jacobs has set the bar for himself). give buffalo their credit though. theyre overmatched in every game they play, but theyve held a lot of good passing offenses in check this year (rutgers, bowling green, akron). the bulls secondary has met two challenges in a row. a third awaits them on saturday when gradkowski and toledo come at them.

the bye week couldnt have come at a better time for western michigan, as it allowed them an extra week to recover from their five-overtime marathon game against ball state. the only problem is that bowling green is next up for the broncos on saturday. last year, bowling green completely dismantled wmich to the tune of 52-0 and it could have been so much worse if bg hadnt called off the dogs. the falcons led 49-0 at halftime and had 551 yards of total offense in the first two quarters. as noted last week, wmich is expected to go with freshman tim hiller at quarterback. hiller was splitting time with senior robbie haas after the season-ending injury to ryan cubit in the temple game. he played well in spot duty against buffalo and ball state. but its really puzzling that the wmich coaching staff is giving him his first career start on the road at doyt perry stadium, where they were annihilated a year ago.

kent state qb michael machen looked pretty good in his first game back after suffering a strained mcl against ohio a few weeks ago. he was wearing a brace and showed some decent mobility on a couple of scrambles. no reason to think the injury will linger for the rest of the season. he was 25/41 for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns/2 interceptions against navy last week. particularly impressive was his 65-yard touchdown pass to pruden on a designed rollout to the right and then throwing the ball 50-yards on a rope down the left sideline for the completion and score. the deep ball has been something kent has excelled at. a lot of the spread offenses in the conference (and country for that matter) dont really stretch the field vertically. but doug martin's gameplan usually includes a couple of home run balls to keep the defenses honest, and machen and pruden have hooked up a few times this year for some very long completions.

its a bit of a misconception that toledo is a pass-first offense just because they have a great quarterback in gradkowski. the fact is that the rockets have been hammering teams on the ground this year with their deep stable of running backs. in their last two games, they rushed for 295 yards against eastern michigan and 231 yards against ball state. they're averaging 221 yards on the season and 5.4 yards per carry with the carries split mainly between dawson and parmele, but with broussard and davis also getting their reps as well. buffalo brings in one of the worst rushing defenses in the nation (102 out of 117) so its likely that the toledo gameplan this week will be centered around the rushing attack. even though toledo can throw the ball with the best of 'em, they might not need to.

more on the way
 

gman2

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midseason mac east report:

akron zips

the first half of akron's season..... can be broken down into halves as well. akron's first three games showed a lot of promise. it almost looked like the zips would have a near seamless transition from charlier frye to luke getsy at quarterback. in his first three starts in an akron uniform, getsy threw for 1008 yards and 9 touchdowns with only three interceptions. but in his last three, he's thrown for just 584 yards and 3 touchdowns with 5 interceptions. the real getsy probably lies somewhere in between. the pitt-transfer is a good but not great quarterback. he's capable of having a 300-yard day every time he takes the field but he's not a high-completion % quarterback. akron has thrown the ball more than any mac team this season, but getsy is only completing 51.6% of his passes. even though brookhart likes having an aggressive offense, the zips have to be throwing the ball a little more frequently than he'd like, and a lot of that is because the akron running game is averaging less than 100 yards (95.5) per game. akron is .500 at the halfway point. they'll be .500 when the season is over.

bowling green falcons

when you throw 4002 yards, complete 67% of your passes, and you have 41 touchdowns with just 4 interceptions in your first season as a starter, the bar will almost invariably be set too high for the rest of your career. thats been the case with omar jacobs. through 6 games, he's thrown for 2000 yards, and 20 touchdowns. but his completion percentage is down to 60% and he's thrown more interceptions through six games (5 INTs) than he did all of last season (4 INTs). but lets be real here -- the falcons still have one of the best offenses in the nation and every other division I quarterback would kill to have jacobs numbers at the halfway point. the running game hasnt been all that consistent, especially with pj pope battling a chronic ankle injury suffered in the season opener against wisconsin. he sat out the buffalo game last week to try and give it some rest and bj lane filled in and was terrific -- 141 yards on 25 carries with 3 touchdowns. the defense has been a disappointment. it has shown signs of getting better in the last few weeks but its still their achilles heel. but the offense is so damn good that they cover up a lot of those deficiencies. the next three weeks will be no problem for the falcons, but the final two games against miami on the road and then rival toledo at home will decide their season. it wouldnt be a huge shock if bg ran the table though.

more on the way
 

gman2

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miami redhawks

top to bottom, this is the most talented team in the conference but you never know what youre going to get, especially with josh betts. physically, he has the tools to be every bit as good as ben roethlisberger. and its hard to say that his mechanics are poor because when he actually steps into a pass, he throws a very good ball and has a cannon for an arm. but he has nfl talent yet division III decision making skills. he's cut down on his interceptions from last year but he still makes some terrible throws and takes way too many chances. miami is very fortunate to have found brandon murphy as an emerging star at running back because he is taking a lot of pressure off betts. murphy has 4 straight 100 yard games and it should be no coincidence that miami is 3-1 in that stretch. the redhawks have been a little erratic defensively, but they've also been without nande and rehage at linebacker for a stretch of the season. theyve still got the best defense of any mac contender and thats why they will have a shot at another mac east title a month from now.

ohio bobcats

frank solich isnt in over his head, but he's definitely got his work cut out for him. the bobcats were expected to struggle on offense this year, and they certainly have done just that. theyve scored more than 14 points in a game just once this year. everson has excellent mobility at quarterback, but he cant throw with any consistency. he was benched in favor of freshman brandon jones in the 2nd half last week against central michigan. everson remains the starter but its clear that solich isnt going to stick with him unless the bobcats show more life on offense. the defense has been decent but not great. they still struggle mightily with teams who spread them out and throw the ball but fundamentally, they're solid and they've got some very good players on that side of the ball. the problem is that the mac is a conference with myriad offensive playmakers, and ohio simply lacks even one gamebreaker on the offensive side. one thing is for certain -- ohio wont mail the season in. solich is too good a coach to let that happen. and their schedule is favorable down the stretch (road trips to buffalo and akron, along with home games against ball state, toledo, and miami). in the next two weeks, the bobcats should get back to .500. after that, it wouldnt be a huge shock if they upset either toledo or miami. the bobcats arent a great football team, but their schedule has been brutal and theyve only played two home games this season. so theyre not quite as bad as their record.
 

hm23

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Thanks, Gman...solid reviews.

I basically agree with your assessment of Miami. They've been very erratic, which is tough as they are the best team talent-wise in the MAC.

I disagree about Betts having similar talent to Big Ben. I don't think his arm is as good - and that is partially related to his poor mechanics. He doesn't have as good mobility either. He forces too many throws and lacks the presence of Roethlisberger.

Any comments about Akron this week. Getsy may yet develop into a solid QB and he and the rest of the Zips' O should find their tonic in Army's soft D.

Also, any thoughts on NIU v. Kent St? Golden Flashes threw the ball well at times v. Navy - not a big accomplishment of course. With the Huskies' myriad injuries at RB - do they may have a shot for the upset.
 

gman2

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hm:

betts lacks a lot of intangibles that roethlisberger has, which is why he wont be receiving any calls on draft day. but in terms of size and strength, he's got an nfl body. he's grossly underachieved at miami imo. so many of his throws are off balance or off his back foot where he simply relies on arm strength to get the ball there. when he is good, he's very good. but when he is bad, he can single-handedly lose a game for his team.

as for akron, im always leery of these mid-season non-conference games out of nowhere. its a game akron should 'get well' in, but akron has been, and always will be, a better dog than chalk. thats what scares me. but getsy should be able to approach 300 yards on these guys.

as for kent - yes, they have a shot at the upset. machen showed no ill-effects from his injury in his first game back vs. navy.


buffalo bulls

three weeks into the season, buffalo had scored a grand total of three points and lost qb stewart sampsel to injury. for some, that would mean the season was completely lost. but sampsel's injury opened the door for buffalo's qb of the future, true freshman drew willy. in willy''s 3 starts, the bulls have scored 21 points, 7 points, and 7 points. its hardly cause for celebration, but the bulls at least look like a football team now. before, they were going three-and-out every possession and crossing midfield was an accomplishment. but now they're actually putting themselves in a position to compete in the second half of games. the running game is still a non-factor, which is a bit surprising considering the bulls have some decent options in the backfield. but king and patterson both have been just 'average' up to this point. phillip warren got extended playing time against bowling green last week and had 92 yards on 17 carries, a very encouraging sign. the defense has been lame against the run but very good against the pass. sometimes, stats can become skewed because if a team is weak in run defense, their pass defense numbers look better than they are because teams dont bother passing the ball on them. but for buffalo, the numbers are accurate. the run defense has been very poor, but the secondary has played very well. bowling green's omar jacobs said buffalo's secondary very tough and threw a lot of different looks at him. a week earlier, akron's getsy had a terrible day throwing the ball. its still gonna take a minor miracle for hofher to keep his job at the end of the season, but whomever takes the job wont be inhereting a team completely devoid of talent. the buffalo football program is well behind the buffalo basketball program in terms of progress. but at least they have found a quarterback thats capable of leading a semi-consistent offense. the remaining schedule has road trips to miami, kent, and toledo along with home games against ohio and eastern michigan. the bulls should be able to salvage one win out of this season
 

Ndfan

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Gman

What do you think of the kent st/NIU game with the starting running backs out for NIU? Looks Like Kent st +10 could have a lot of value in my opinion, as they can have a decent pass game and NIU defense is questionable in that area especially on the road. Only thing is how big of a difference will it make with the running backs out. Sometimes I have seen this situation and it back fires. NIU"s backup didn't do that bad in their final drive.
 

gman2

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ndfan:

there is a reason davis is 3rd string as a senior behind wolfe and harris. he's a good backup to have, but hardly a gamebreaker. very short and lacks the burst that wolfe has.


kent state flashes

the flashes are just 1-5 on the season, but theyre getting better. last season, they were 1-5 after 6 games and closed the season by winning 4 of their last 5. that feat will be tough to repeat (with games remaining against northern illinois, bowling green, and then their year-end rivalry game on the road this year at akron) but they should be competitive in every game except the bowling green matchup. if nothing else comes out of this season, theyve found their quarterback of the future in machen. and 4 of their 5 best receivers are returning next year as well, along with every running back on the roster. so there is no way they'll be 1-5 at this point next year. they've got the makings of one of the best offenses in the mac in the near future, and machen should develop into one of the mac's best quarterbacks as well. the alabama-transfer might already have the best arm in the conference as a redshirt sophomore. their defense has really let them down this year. last year they had the #1 rated defense in the conference and they returned a lot of guys from that group but for whatever reason, theyve just been lame this year on that side of the ball. the flashes could very easily be 3-3 right now if their defensive performance matched their offensive performance. that will have to change if kent is going to make their expected jump from pretender in the mac to contender. theyre one of those fringe mac teams that are definitely better than ball state, buffalo, western michigan, and eastern michigan (against whom machen didnt play), but theyre not ready to make the jump and compete on a level playing field with bg, toledo, and miami.

mac west next week
 

CizzyCanes

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Gman..will you be pointing out these values to your fans on MJs?

Love your write-ups. Thanks for taking the time to post them!
 

spang

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Ndfan said:
Gman

What do you think of the kent st/NIU game with the starting running backs out for NIU? Looks Like Kent st +10 could have a lot of value in my opinion.

I'm certainly no Gman when it comes to the MAC, but Kent already has a good chunk of my money behind them. I've seen NIU live this year and their secondary can be exploited. I like a couple of other MAC dogs this week as well.

Good luck
 

Joe De

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i have northern illini -10' over kent a gift.

what's your thoughts??
 

gman2

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spang said:
I'm certainly no Gman when it comes to the MAC, but Kent already has a good chunk of my money behind them. I've seen NIU live this year and their secondary can be exploited. I like a couple of other MAC dogs this week as well.

Good luck

spang being modest again. your opinion is very much valued, as im sure many would agree. sent you mail, but if you do get the chance, would like to hear your thoughts on akron/army. think its a "blowout or bust" kind of game. dont see the spread playing a role in this game. zips either win by 17+ or lose outright. this is a game where getsy SHOULD be able to find a lot of open guys and creep up on 300 yards passing. but do the zips take this game seriously in in the middle of this miami-bowling green sandwich? the falcons are staring them in the face next which. which akron team shows? this is the one mac game that just has me stumped and would love to hear your opinion if you get a chance.
 
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GuRu

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gman. CMU alum here. Love your attention to the MAC. Refreshing

Curious of your feelings on Bowling Green -25? Money in the bank?
 

gman2

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guru:

still kinda waiting on the status of pope for bowling green. obviously they have the talent to roll wmich with or without him, but hes still a key piece in their offense. his ability to catch the football is what sets him apart from lane out of the backfield. wouldnt be a huge shock if bowling green scored 50+ here. btw- huge game for the chips next week. and you know what? it could be end up being a turning point for the program. said it last year and backed it up with my money before this season started when a future on central michigan over 3.5 wins was posted -- the chips will soon be one of the best teams in the mac. my only regret is not throwing more money on that over 3.5 that is already a winner on october 20th. a program can't be turned around overnight. its certainly a process and takes time. but kelly is a fantastic coach and cmich was very wise to pluck him from grand valley. theres a reason this guy was 51-2 in his last three years at gvsu.
 

GuRu

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Smitty said:
gman, thank you for your time and effort. your write-ups are always appreciated.

I just want to 2nd that. As a mac alumn (student not athlete), and as a guy who has spent too many early Saturday morning hours in the parking lot of Kelly Shorts Stadium, I really appreciate and enjoy your write-ups. A slice of nostalgia
 

gman2

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ohio bobcats (-7) over ball state cardinals

both teams should be commended for scheduling very tough non-conference opponents this season. while bsu is sitting at 1-5 on the season and ohio is sitting at 2-4, neither team has exactly been losing to cupcakes up to this point. the combined record of ball state's opponents is 28-10; the combined record of ohio's opponents, 23-16. what does that mean for this game? if nothing else, it means you can't look at numbers and expect to get a good read on this game because both teams have been over-matched for a good majority of their schedule so far. ball state has dealt with numerous suspensions, while ohio is in a transition year with solich now manning the sidelines.

so evaluating personnel and overall talent is key here. the reality is that sometimes records and numbers are skewed because of difficult competition. other times, it wouldn't matter what teams were on a given schedule because a certain team would be over-matched and a bad team regardless, no matter who they played. that's the case for ball state. they're not a good football team, period. they lack a game-breaker on offense, and you almost feel bad for quarterback joey lynch. he's operating behind a mediocre offensive line and has mediocre receivers to try and throw to. lynch is actually a halfway decent quarterback, but he certainly can't do it alone. the ball state defense, even at full strength, is less than stellar as well.

ohio has been no prize this year either, but this is one of those times where they go from being the team on the field that is outclassed .... to being the team doing the "outclassing" on the field. the bobcats have struggled offensively, but should find the ball state defense to be the perfect elixir. ohio has only played two home games this year, and they're 2-0 with wins against pitt and kent state, having played well in both games and holding a double-digit lead for most of the game against kent state. the fact that solich has quarterback austen eversen on a short leash is a good thing for ohio bettors, too. the bobcats are high on true freshman brandon jones, who saw some action last week against central michigan. ideally, you'd prefer to see eversen play better and not bring in a true freshman, but it's good to know that solich isn't going to let his offense just drown all afternoon. if eversen isn't getting it done, they'll go to jones for a spark.

it's homecoming for ohio and they should get back on track with a double-digit win against a lame ball state group.
 
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