ncaa football (tuesday nov.2 -- saturday nov.6) ....

gman2

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  • 3-2 week (won akron, won akron moneyline, won south florida, lost louisville under and miami over)
  • western michigan (+30.5) over bowling green
  • (big) central michigan/eastern michigan over 56.5
  • ohio state (+2) over michigan state
  • ohio state 2nd half (pk) (+100)
  • oregon state (+18) over southern cal
  • oregon state 2nd half (+8) (+100)
  • (big) virginia (-14) over maryland
  • hawaii (-3.5) over louisiana tech
  • (big) central michigan 2nd half (-2) over eastern

add: ohio state 2nd half (pk) (+100)
very easy to beat osu when you have the lead at half. very difficult to come back on them when you trail at the break.

eastern michigan/central michigan over
cmu has played in some very difficult conditions the last few weeks. they played in a rainstorm in toledo two weeks ago, and then dealt with 40mph winds that completely took both cmu and wmu out of their offense last saturday. weather wont be a problem saturday indoors at ford field. the improved cmu offense should have a good deal of success against a porous emu defense, and if nothing else- emu has enough talent on offense to trade scores. two of the best running backs in the mac going at it here (sherrell and seymour). really think this is a shootout and im hitting this one hard.

western michigan over bowling green
sort of the same principles as my emu over bowling green play last week. bg playing out their month-long string of games against mac bottom feeders. bg is gonna tear apart the wmu defense, but the broncos can score more than enough to keep up. cubit has played very well for wmu the last few weeks, and jennings has had some monster games on the receiving end. bowling green is laying 30+ points with far bigger fish to fry on deck. a home date with marshall awaits next week followed by a trip to rival toledo to close the season.

ohio state over michigan state
i cringe every time i hit the submit button on osu, as im anything but an osu fan. but the emergence of smith coupled with the deflation of the double-OT loss for msu leads me to think the bucks are the way to go here. smith isnt really doing anything spectacular. but it seems like the guys around him are just playing harder than they were when zwick was under center. ginn is proving to be the most explosive buckeye since david boston. nothing osu does on offense is going to strike fear in msu, but just feel like osu will find a way to win.

oregon state over usc
in my opinion, the most dangerous game usc has remaining. this is a game that could be a LOT closer than the line indicates. now i offer this caveat: every time i bet on derek anderson, he turns the ball over like a motherfu/cker, so beware. but hes actually been really good lately and hasnt been turnover prone (its amazing how that works. when you dont turn the ball over, you win. wow. what a concept). osu got their asses handed to them by cal earlier this season in corvalis, but this is still one of the toughest venues in the pacific time zone. really think beavs keep this within 2 scores, if not closer

virginia over maryland
just think this is a great siutational spot for virginia. not only do they catch maryland off a big upset of florida state, but their schedule sets them up perfectly for this game. they got their ass handed to them by fsu. that knocked 'em off the public pedestal a little bit. then they had their "woe is us" game against duke the next week where they were totally lethargic and went through the motions in half-assed fashion. and then they get the bye week after that to prepare for the stretch run. theyve already taken their loss, theyve had their requisite "feel sorry for themselves" game, and now are rested off the bye and ready to (i think) blast maryland. feel like this one is a rout.
 
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AR182

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gman quote: "hammered emich on saturday vs. bg, but made enough lame plays to give most of it back."

i tend to do the samething. i would be doing very well if i basically played my picks.but then i get e-mails or phone calls from friends giving me other games & because i'm not discipline enough i tend to bet those without even doing research on them.that tends to be my biggest weakness.


also congrats on that emich bet. i coatailed it & did well.thanks.

good luck this week.
 

Irish

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gman thanks for the kudo's. Good luck this weekend! at first look we might be bumping heads this weekend on a couple.

Cheers
Irish
 

gman2

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tuesday: toledo and miami over 61.5
  • toledo giving up a lot of points away from the glass bowl this year. (47.8 ppg on the road in 4 gms overall, 32.5 in 2 mac road gms. compare that with only 16.5 ppg allowed at home)
  • miami has scored 40+ in all four home games this season (their offensive struggles have come on the road)
  • toledo offense is still an offensive machine, no matter where they play. almost 550 ypg in mac play
  • gradkowski still in a zone (16 touchdowns, 1 interception in his last 6)
  • miami is -10 in the turnover department. for whatever reason, betts doesnt make great decisions, even though i think hes a good quarterback. but redhawks give the ball away way too much and you might as well put 7 on the board if you give toledo's offense a short field.
  • miami and toledo have both battled mother nature the last few weeks, and thats contributed to some lower scoring games. but both offenses are explosive and dont take up much time on their drives. wind shouldnt be a factor, and thats really the only variable that can slow toledo's spread offense.
  • this game also features two of the best kick returners/playmakers in the country. miami's robinson is a game-changer, and toledo's moore has avg. 120+ yds receiving in his last 3 and took a punt 89 yds to the house last week.
  • http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=SPORTS11
  • http://muredhawks.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/102904aab.html
 
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kneifl

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Gman -

Thanks for E Michigan Sat I played that one the biggest of your plays Saturday. Played Kent just as big and parlayed them both as well which turned out pretty well.

BTW, love your card this week. Love playing doggies at betcom because the lines are fantastic.

kneifl
 

cavy1

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gman
Thanks for your pics

Do you think the rain will affect the Toledo/Miami Ohio total?

cavy1
 
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wolfpacker97

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gman,
Who do you think will win the game? Should be a good game. I hate that it will probably rain during the entire game. Weather dot com has rain forcasted for the entire day there.
 

gardenweasel

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g....what is the rationale for picking a" bad" ohio st team this week?.....i saw you had penn st last week.....i don`t believe that you are just picking anti-public with no other reasoning...

i understand that mich st will be a public pick....and that mich st will have trouble getting back up after michigan....

but,ohio st isn`t a good club...the defense is weak....and the offense is inconsistent.....particularly on the road..

even if stanton is out,mich st will run the ball on the buckeyes...i think they`ve rushed for over 200 yards in 5 straight games.....

stanton had something to do with that....but they have been running the ball very well..and will do so with stanton or dowdell.....and i don`t think dowdell is terrible.....

thanks...
 

gardenweasel

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that could be.......that`s what i`m interested in.......

i realize it`s a bad situational set-up for mich st.....and stanton is an enormous loss...

g...anything else jump out at you here?......i was very disappointed in ohio st last weekend....particularly their tackling vs a pathetic penn st offense.....

just trying to cover all aspects.....

thanks...
 

spang

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Good luck on your total tonight, it sure looks good on paper, though I too am a bit concerned about the weather tonight. When I look at these two teams I see many similarities. Both hare offensive machines that can put up points in a hurry, both have solid special teams,and neither team has beaten anybody of substance this year. I think Miami's defense is a more solid unit than the Rockets, so I'll go with the home field and better defense for a small play tonight, knowing all along that Gradkowski can beat me with another solid game.
 

gman2

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cavy/wolfpacker:

take this all fwiw (as im not in proximity to oxford) but talked to someone down there that said the conditions should be playable and cleared up by this evening. not thrilled about the rain thats been passing through, but im more concerned about the wind, and fortunately, that shouldnt be an issue. im still confident about the total. miami is another one of those schools with the field turf and that stuff takes to rain very well.

as for the game itself:

with the way toledo is playing right now, its tough to give them any points. but this is one of those quirky mac games that means more to one team than the other.

miami is in a must-win if they want to win the mac east. if they lose, theyre done.

toledo, on the other hand, can afford a loss and still not be overly affected because this is a cross-divisional game and they still have their mac west games with northern illinois and bowling green up next. having said that, toledo could certainly give themselves some breathing room in the mac west with a win here. but its not all-or-nothing for them tonight like it is for miami.

heres something i found interesting (taken from the miami website)
[the avg. home win jumped out at me]

YAGER, SWEET YAGER: Presently riding a Yager Stadium record nine-game home winning streak, Miami has not lost a game at home since the conclusion of the 2002 campaign and has been dominant along the way. The RedHawks, who had a FieldTurf playing surface installed prior to last season, have yet to lose on their new carpet and have won their home games by an average margin of 30.3 points per game over that span. Under Hoeppner, Miami has posted a 21-7 (.750) record in Yager Stadium. Miami's home unbeaten streak is the longest since an 11-game unbeaten streak from 1985-86, and the home winning streak is the longest since the Red and White won 14 straight from 1980-82. Coincidentally, in Miami's last meeting with Toledo, the RedHawks ended the Rockets' 17-game home winning streak.

spang and irish are right -- miami has the better defense, even though im not sure its quite as good as the numbers indicate. but its still better than toledo's. miami is definitely going to be playing with a sense of urgency tonight and they are nails at home but i just cant lay points against toledo right now. that offense is just ridiculous. i know defense ultimately wins championships, but right now toledo and bowling green are damn near untouchable in conference play.

one last thing that stands out:
betts 15 TDs, 10 INTs (6 in his last 5 games)
gradkowski 19 TDs, 3 INTs (1 his last 6 games)

these teams are both so good that the game could change on a miscue. toledo doesnt make many of them. but i still am taking a temporary pass on toledo. maybe something at halftime will open up. but redhawks jump on teams early in oxford. if toledo withstands the first haymaker, then this game will be decided in the final minutes.

some new articles from this morning:

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041102/SPORTS11/411020340/-1/SPORTS
http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/11/02/spt_sfoot1hawks.html
http://utrockets.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/110104aag.html
http://www.cincypost.com/2004/11/02/mufoot11-02-2004.html
 
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LonghornMM

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gman, thanks for your insight on the Toledo/Miami game. I was unsure of whether to play the side or total, but because of the respect I have for your plays especially on the MAC, I will play the over tonite.

Thanks and good luck.
 

rrc

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Gman, do you like "yes" there will be a score in the first 5 minutes at -120. I 'm also thinking in a game with this much scoring we should be able to get some points scored early. Thanks.
 

gman2

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rrc:

thats a tough one. toledo has played a handful of games this year where there they have jumped out before the 10:00 mark of the 1q. but you can almost look at that like "will there be a score on the first drive of the game". that particular bet leaves no room for error. do i think its likely that someone will have something on the board with 10:00 left in the 1q? its likely. but i dont think i could bet on it. probably not the answer you wanted to hear, but just being honest. now go watch gradkowski hook up with moore for a 60 yd TD on the 3rd play from scrimmage.
 

Pujo21

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GMAN--good luck tonite..and thank you for Eastern Mikey Saturday,
i tailed ya and teased it..

AND THE COLL HOOPS is around the corner..look foward to you threads.
 
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