ncaa hoops system under construction

[loophole]

in the never ending quest for that picking system with long term reliability, i have been tracking plays based upon a combination of power ratings and line movement. the theory behind this system is similar to that used by our former poster billy blastoff without the mystery of the "Q" factor. basically, it picks teams with a significant differential between the teams' power rating (i use a relatively obscure rating system) coupled with a virgin reverse line move. needless to say, this system is experimental and unproven, but at its extremes, it appears to hold some predictive value.

today offers up two top plays:

la laf +4: the game power rates at coastal carolina -10, but opening line of -5 has moved to -4 with apparent heavy action on coastal.

vandy +3: mizzou power rates at -9.3, but line moved to -3 with the early action favoring the tigers.

i'll use this thread to track these plays for the coming days to see how it performs. and yes, i'm playing them as i post them.



glta

 

[jng]

The Loophole Blastoff System.

Playing them with you!

 

[loophole]

hey doc, good luck to us but caveat emptor. the mine field of games where vegas alters the expected line is where handicapping transitions from science to art. just have a gut feeling that's where the money is.

 

[smax]

Looking forward to this. I always thought this premise had some merit. I was not smart enough to piece together a formula.

Best of luck Loop :0074

 

[loophole]

me too smax, just too labor intensive for a dinosaur like me that has to manually compare the power #s to the opening lines. a younger tech savvy guy could construct software to do it. if it looks promising i may pay my tech guy to put something together.

 

[loophole]

move along, nothing to see here. system flops 0-2 on madjacks premier. figures. thankfully no plays generated today so we can all enjoy the super bowl. i'll see you in the nfl forum.

 

[loophole]

upon further review, there is one play on today's slate. lets get it up for tracking purposes.

denver +7-, power numbers say sd st should be -12.4, line opened at -9 and has mover to -7- with close to 70% action on the fav.

glta

 

[bryanz]

upon further review, there is one play on today's slate. lets get it up for tracking purposes.

denver +7-, power numbers say sd st should be -12.4, line opened at -9 and has mover to -7- with close to 70% action on the fav.

glta

I respect what you do. This is a tough game, keep doing the exact same thing, and we can play the other side. I'm serious, you may have stumbled on to something. Sometimes systems work and than they don't. This may eventually work. It's just not working now. They change up all the time . You are 0-3.. could be 3-0 !!!