ncaa opening round: friday 3/18/05 ....

[gman2]

central florida
connecticut

kind of an intriguing dog. ucf gave pitt a damn good game in the opening round last year. knights are pretty solid on the boards too, which is a must if youre gonna compete with uconn. hard to get a true read on them though because they played a lame schedule. toughest foe this year was utah state. much respect for the aggies, but thats not saying a whole lot for ucf's resume. that said, i think theyre a pretty live dog.

nc state
nc charlotte

another game where both teams get a little three-point happy. perimeter shooting should decide this one. from a line value perspective, tough to not give charlotte a strong look. theyve got everything you want in a tourney dog. good 3point shooting. reliable free throw shooting from their key guys. well coached. rebounding edge against their opponent. problem is, theyre playing like dog shit lately. normally the 10 being favored over the 7 would dictate the play, but that hasnt necessarily held true the last year or so. charlotte or nothin for me.

old dominion
michigan state

offering this caveat first off: im very high on michigan state. i think theyre capable of being a sleeper final four team. old dominion is a damn good basketball team and their success this season speaks for itself. but i think msu is gonna wax 'em pretty good. i think odu (similar to niagara) just got a bad draw. theyre a live dog who didnt draw the right team. msu should have their early exit from last years tourney fresh in their minds and i think this one goes the way of the chalk from start to finish. dont think odu has enough firepower to hang with michigan state and the inside guys for the spartans should have their way.

vermont
syracuse

not sure what to make of vermont. theyre sort of the media darling, but its for good reason. its rare for a midmajor to have the inside/outside game that they have. the stigma of the america east conference seems to be working against them, but many said that milwaukee couldnt compete because they dominanted an average horizon league. talent is talent, and vermont does have it. but i cant back em against syracuse. its hard enough for big time programs to succeed against that syracuse zone the first time they see it. gonna be extra tough for the catamounts to find the soft spots in it. one huge x-factor is the free throw shooting though. vermont holds a +6% edge in that department, and thats pretty significant. outside of gmac, the orange are aspiring masons. i think syracuse is gonna have a tough time pulling away from vermont. but not interested in playin the cats because of they might be clueless against the syracuse 2-3.

oakland
north carolina

no point in capping this. oakland much better than their record. theyve done a good job of aggressively scheduling. but if they try to run with carolina, theyll have a hundy dropped on 'em.

iowa state
minnesota

i like the gophers here. monson did a phenomenal job with them in a rebuilding year. it seems like only yesterday that they were in a pick 'em spot against furman out in alaska. they certainly ended up being much better than everyone expected. i always give isu a look at home in the big 12, but think theyre garbage away from their own floor. minny is nothin' special but i think they have enough to get by isu. the matchups dont get more even than this one. two middle-of-the-pack power conference teams that should really battle it out. think this one could be close the whole way similar to creighton/wvu. lead should change hands often.

delaware state
duke

yawn.

mississippi state
stanford

msu looks too easy in this game. ive got em in all my brackets but no way will i lay a single dollar on a team thats underachieved as badly as they have. even a depleted stanford team should be able to give the bulldogs a game.

george washington
georgia tech

im really lookin forward to this game. might be the best matchup of the friday games not because the teams are necessarily 'even' but because theyre both so damn athletic and potentially explosive. gw started hot, dropped like a bomb, and then got themselves squared away in time to make the necessary run to get back in the tourney. i dont think those big wins against msu and maryland were flukes either. every time i watch gw im impressed. slow down teams give them problems, but if they get out and run theyre awfully tough. im really torn on this game. i want to play gw in a bad way, but think tech is playing well enough to advance and beat washington if they see 'em. gonna sleep on it and decide in the morning if im taking the points or not.

louisiana lafayette
louisville

definitely on lafayette here. im actually amazed the line is this high. cajuns have the athleticism to compete with any team they face. theyve got a handful of transfers who have been in big games. they get out well in transition and do a good job forcing turnovers. i just like this team. hate to make it that simple, but im grabbing the points with a very athletic, very capable underdog. also think the results of the games against the big boys (kansas, ncst, vandy) are misleading because they had some bad injury luck in december when greene messed himself up. but when theyre healthy, theyre pretty damn good for a sun belt team. and they play better defense than they get credit for. as long as ull avoids the big spurts by louisville, they should be right there in single digits all game

 

[MIPS]

Gman one hell of a long ass write up... but i like them.. i ike bucknell a good amount tomorrow.

 

[MIPS]

also gotta like kicket and marigney and the rest of the St Mary's crew.... had UWM big today thanks bro... also hit a nice Palray with UWM ML, Pacific ML and Creighton UNDER

 

[Sun Tzu]

Was ISU more garbage away from Ames when they won outright in Austin or Lawrence?

And of course the Gophers are solid chalk away from home, with impressive wins in Happy Valley and Ann Arbor

 

[Musca]

The Gophers also won at Ohio State, purdue, and Nebraska--


Under is the call

 

[Sun Tzu]

Iowa State won at Nebraska as well. Not that its all that impressive to do so (probably why I doidnt mention it), nor is beating Purdue.

 

[pt1gard]

gman2, thanx for the info and insight .. one thing about Trees not to neglect, Trent Johnson has to be given his due particularly seeing how NEV won again today, but he took this seemingly "down" team and played UW tuff as nails 3xs and made ncaas ... Hernandez is gritty as heck and everytime i bet Miss st this year they wore tutus ...

seeing how SEC bombed today Im really leaning to trees hard, too bad grunfeld went down, id be all over them at pick em

take care
gregg

 

[gman2]

sun:

just dont like isu's home-heavy schedule. conference tourney aside, 17 of their 27 games were at home. i know its never gonna be a 50/50 split, but only 10 of 27 games on the road this year and 3-7 in those games leaves a lot to be desired. to your point, a few upsets in there. but they dont shoot the ball nearly as well away from home and thats what is most glaring imo. minny is no prize. but think they are better on a neutral court.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Actually 11 road and 16 home plus 2 tourney games for a 16/13 split.

Minny ha ha 17 home and 14 away. With 5 of those being on neutral courts..
I am not trying to argue against your pick, but the apparent factual basis is questionable.

 

[gman2]

new mexico
villanova

tough not to give new mexico a look here. theyre playing solid basketball and have only lost once since late january. villanova playing equally as well though. their defense has been outstanding, holding their last 9 opponents to just 62.5 ppg. throw out the loss to wvu in the big east semis and that average is just over 60 pgg. really cant say i see an edge on either side. lobos are a live dog but villanova has earned their seed and are a justified chalk. will let these two battle it out and just watch

ohio university
florida

ive gone anti-ohio a handful of times within the last month and a half and had some good success up until the mac championship game when buffalo went in the tank late. but im gonna put my money on the bobcats friday afternoon. i just cant get over how incredibly resilient this team is. theyre young, but they just keep coming and coming, even when theyre trailing. obviously it would be wise of them to avoid a slow start against a good sec team. but these kiddie cats dont feel any pressure. just watching jeremy fears play, youd think hes a 5th year senior (and not an 18-yr old freshman) the way he just controls the offense and handles the ball. and leon williams was a man-child in the mac tourney (18.3 ppg and 13.0 rebounds in the 3 games at gund). for such a young team, i gotta give credit where its due -- ohio doesnt beat themselves and they do a lot of little things right. i still think buffalo would have been capable of a sweet 16 kind of run had they made it, but ohio earned the berth and theyre not a pushover. i dont think ohio can get away with playing a zone against florida though. cats rotations were not good against buffalo and the bulls lit 'em up in the 1h before o'shea switched to man. if walsh and roberson get hot, the cats are in trouble. hopefully ohio establishes their defense right away. aside from ohio, this is still a florida team that finds ways to lose in the tourney. ive been a huge gator fan for years now, but facts are facts. talent is there for florida. but consistency in the tourney sure as hell isnt. i dont think this is a bad matchup for OU at all. think we're looking at a game that ends up being decided by 7 or 8 points.

southeast louisiana
oklahoma state

couldnt pay me to watch this game, let alone bet on it. selu didnt crack 50 pts in their conference championship game. theres a difference between 'winning with defense' and being totally inept on offense. i think its a little of both with selu. ill pass.

saint mary
southern illinois

going with the gaels here. a little bit of pro-smc and a little anti-siu. i think southern illinois is really overrated. they did get a good win at kent state in the bracket buster (which doesnt sound like much, but thats an impressive win) but i just think the whole mvc was down this year. they were the best of a weak bunch. st.marys played some weird games in the wcc tourney (terrible 1h vs santa clara, great 2nd half....then great 1h vs. gonzaga and terrible 2nd half) but i think theyre a solid team with all the pieces to get through round one and be a formidable round 2 opponent for oklahoma state. it can be argued that their size is kinda weak, but i like the fact that kickert can step out and hit the 3 ball. like the way marigney plays too. i really think this is a case of the wrong team being favored here.

northern iowa
wisconsin

my thoughts on the mvc are stated above. that said, i think northern iowa will keep this game close. im a big fan of their style and the way they play. i dont think theyre as good as they were last year but still think theyre capable of throwing a scare into wisconsin. valid point was brought up that the 'least deserving team in the dance' normally fares well in round one. think thats gonna be the case here. wisconsin's style just not conducive to a blowout. northern iowa is solid in my 'big 3' as well (high 3pt %, high FT%, low turnover average). if this number climbs any higher, put me down for a small play on uni.

bucknell
kansas

just not sure if bucknell has the firepower to give kansas a true scare. the pitt upset proves that theyre more than capable of hanging with a power conference team. but ultimately, theyre gonna have to find a way to put the ball in the basket. kansas certainly one of those teams that can get lulled into taking an opponent lightly. but still gonna pass. certainly pulling for the patriot league boys but i cant put my money on a team who has scored 72 pts or more just once since christmas.

 

[gman2]

for now, gonna play:

louisiana lafayette
ohio university
small shot on ohio university moneyline
saint mary's

 

[GOAT]

Nice write up GOOD LUCK, :clap:

 

[spang]

Yesterday it seemed like all the big dogs played really tough in the first half before faltering late. May squeeze out a F H play on C. Fla and a couple of others today hoping that emotions can carry them for 20 minutes. I took a long look at Charlotte as well but I just can't use a team that can't guard anybody.

 

[Keith 1]

thanks for the insight gman. Always look for your write-ups and try to stay on the same side as you. Good luck today.

 

[sharky17]

Gonna follow......Good Luck today GMan.

 

[hogman14]

GL Gman!

one other thing, any idea why the Cle. State gym is that big? Obviously big enough to host the tourny, but seems huge for a small school? Wondering if you knew...

 

[gman2]

hogman:

to offer a thorough answer to your question would require a few hours of discussion over a couple of beers, lol. theres no real easy answer. cleveland state has a terrific facility yet have still been mediocre at best in the various conferences theyve been in, and currently the horizon. back in the late 80s when cleveland state's program showed a lot of promise (after upsetting indiana in the tourney and all that) there was talk of them making the jump to a bigger conference (the mac or the current conference usa or somethin comparable to that). the program went in the shitter after mackey got busted in the crack house and then the program was left in shambles. that was about the time when the convo was about the be built. now a mediocre csu program has probably the best mid-major facility in the midwest. the arena is really nice. but massimino failed to get the program back on its feet when he was here and now garland has his work cut out for him. obviously the arena generates a lot of revenue with concerts and all that kind of stuff. but its amazing that cleveland state cant build a better program considering how nice their arena is. its a really complicated situation. program should be a lot better than it is, especially since they have such a great venue to play at. ive been to a handful of big 10 and acc gyms and the csu convo is as nice as any of em. its downright crazy. and kinda sad when csu plays in front of 1,500 people in a 11,000 seat gym.