ncaa saturday: round two ......

[gman2]

made a few bucks on friday with the trio of ohio/st.marys/lafayette. not pretty but will take 2-1. thought the long shot on ohio moneyline was gonna rise from the dead and cash. good to see some double digit seeds with some shockers.

for saturday:

very big play -- cincinnati bearcats (+2.5)

playing this for for the same amount as i did milwaukee in round one. definitely a strong one for me. really think this kentucky team has a lot of flaws that can be exposed, most notably their inability to knock down consistent jumpers (outside of sparks). some recent bearcat teams have been a little weaker than usual defensively but huggins has to be pleased with this years group of guys. theyre playing quintessential cincinnati defense. think cincinnati advances here. kentucky just not as good as theyre made out to be in my opinion. cincy can match their physical play on the interior and the cats shoot the ball better on the outside.

also playing wisconsin-milwaukee for a normal play. this is awfully similar to kent state during their elite 8 run. milwaukee was catching 4 or 5 points in the first round from a power conference team (just like kent was catching 4.5 from okie state that year) and then they come back on saturday for the 2nd round with a shorter line against a higher seed. bama was a small chalk against kent in round 2 when the tide was highly seeded and kent was a DD seed) and got worked. theres a reason bc is only laying a basket. milwaukee is every bit as good as they are. bc frustrates teams with their zone. but milwaukee can knock down the 3 ball with consistency. fully expect the panthers to advance (and unfortunately get rolled in round 3)

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

very nice pick gman, nice to see someone else likes them besides me on here. i think they roll kentucky like florida did them in the sec championship game. goodluck bro

 

[Sun Tzu]

You know the Huggins track record. But for me it is an offset by a senseless line. Really tells me Thuggins is gonna actually get a W. The lose to OU/Utah in Austin.

 

[pt1gard]

already played them gman2--Cincy--i was cold as ice and heating up some, hope i dont jinx ya

gl, gregg

 

[lineguy]

Gman

Thanks for all the work u do man.

I wanted to ask u a question about your best conference. What type of basketball does BUFFALO play on the road as I see theyre getting 6 1/2 tomorrow at St. Joes.

That line really jumped out at me. I think its a good spot for Buffalo coming off a bounceback win .

Any thought Gman?

 

[bjfinste]

just like kent was catching 4.5 from okie state that year

Are you sure about that? I'm 99.9 percent positive that Kent was actually favored in that contest (I think it opened at a PK or Kent -1, and was bet to -1.5). I've used that game as an example to non-betting friends to show how much smarter the oddsmakers are than the seeding committee.

Regardless, I agree with you on both games. Good luck!

 

[Coach Burns]

Well damn...I'm opposite both your plays....not good
for me....Might lessen my amount now....Wisc Milw
can play but just cant see them shooting the ball
as good as they did against Bama....Should be a great
game...very fun to watch....bust the man today.

Good luck and kick ass
Coach Burns

 

[Hokie Fan]

I dont see how BC is going to lose today...
They have more talent..
Believe me they will be playing with a chip...
I like Wisky-Mil as much as the next guy but i think Al Skinner will be well prepared
Same with Kentucky.. Better team more talent..
Sometimes we try to create these Cinderella stories (Not that Cincy and Wisky-Mil are Bucknell and Vermont)
The good teams find ways to win .. I do know BC and kentucky are good teams..
Just my opinion and I have been wrong before...

 

[Irish]

GL Gman
Head to head on this one, best of luck

Cheers
Irish

 

[hogman14]

Have watched a decent amount of BC hoops, by no means enough to make me any sort of expert, but this year, they have consistently lacked the outside shot. They did heave up a ton of 3's against Penn, but all year, they have showed nothing from outside. If Wisc-Mil can hit those shots again, and play off of Smith inside, they can give BC a run. I like the points.

On board Cincy w/ya also, put a big circle around that last night.

GL gman.

 

[GOAT]

G-Man Did you ever have a team that you just cant win with. Well Cinn. is that team for me. I will just wish you a win. Already with you on the other game. Good Luck!!!

 

[soul train]

go bearcats,good luck

 

[THUNDER]

Thing that scares me is cincy has not one quality win against any powerhouse or really good team accert Charlotte at the end of the year when they were not playing well- Kentucky meanwhile kentucky has beaten a few good one including 2 0n the road louisville and bama. not trying to knock the play just a couple observations. gl

 

[Sports Psychic]

BC will come out and defend alot tougher against the 3 point shot than Alabama did. For Panthers to win this game Tigert and especially Joah Tucker must have big games. Tucker has to stay out of foul trouble to give UWM a chance. He is only 6'5 but plays alot bigger and I guarantee you he is the strongest player on the court. Total keeps climbing up to 140. I don't see that today will take the under. GL

 

[gman2]

bjfinste:

im going purely off memory on the kent/bama line. but i recalll it being bama as the chalk. regardless, line was obscenely low for such 2nd round game involving a double-digit seed. id be interested in knowing if anyone has access to a database for that line. like you said, that was truly was of the more telling lines of the last few yrs in the ncaa tourney

lineguy:

for awhile, buffalo was playing better basketball on the road than at home. i have to admit, that line really jumped out at me as well for tonight. theres no way in hell st.joes is 6.5 or 7 points better than buffalo. in fact, im not sure theyre any points better than buffalo. obviously the home court is a factor as well as the hangover affect for buffalo. but i think the bulls got that 'woe is us' game out of their system against drexel. only real concern about ther game itself (and not outside variables) is the defense. st.joes definitely plays better defense. but assuming buffalo has their head on straight, i think they will be right there all game.

thunder:

very valid point and something i cant refute. facts are facts. cincy was inconsistent this year and lacked that 'big win'. i just love the way cincy matches up their defense against kentucky's offense. if you play solid defense, kentucky is incredibly vulnerable. they dont shoot well outside of sparks, and for a top 10 team, they go through long stretches without scoring throughout the course of a game, something no big time team should do. if cincy brings their trademark D, its their game to lose. thats how i feel. i think kentucky and kansas were two of the most overrated big programs this year. i expect both will be gone by the end of the day. we'll see. but definitely a valid point about cincy's schedule and lack of a marquee win

hokie:

im not so sure the talent gap between milwaukee and bc is as wide as you think. panthers are truly an atypical midmajor. obviously, uwm wont be knocking down that high % of threes against bc today, but mccants and co. can shoot the shit out of the ball if bc's defense breaks down. the only thing cinderella-esque about milwaukee is their seed. theyre a top 25 team with the stigma of the horizon league and its schedule looming over them. on a neutral court this game is a tossup to me. id go so far as to say before the season started, uwm had higher ncaa expectations than boston college did. we'll see how this one goes. good luck

 

[bjfinste]

Gman- I think Bama was short chalk. I was referring to the Okie State game in the opener that Kent was favored.

 

[gman2]

im almost 100% positive that oklahoma was a 3.5 or 4 point chalk against kent state in the 1st round that year, but would have to defer to sun tzu or dr.freeze because they probably recall the # better than i would. i know 100% for sure that kent wasnt favored but the number was relatively low, and then obscenely low for the game against bama. i dont quite recall but kent might have been favored over pittsburgh in the sweet 16 round (you might be thinking of that one) but the pittsburgh line and indy line is truly dont recollect. every time i think of that run kent made, its more impressive to me. that team had some serious shooters with huffman and mitchell but could score inside with gates. not sure if we'll see a mac team that good for a long time.

 

[Sun Tzu]

remember quite well as I rode kent

they were short chalk v okie st - -1
+2 v Bama
Pk v Pitt
+4 v Indiana

 

[Sun Tzu]

even more accurate perhaps:

http://www.goldsheet.com/histcbb.php

 

[bjfinste]

When I get some down time today or tomorrow, I'll see if I can find the line history. Not because I want to try and prove you wrong or anything, but because I'll feel like an idiot if I'm wrong and I've been using that game as an example over the past few years to show the prowess of linesmakers.