NCAA Saturday

[Tiger]

Last Post (Tuesday): 0-4.....in fact 0-6 last 6 posted plays so took a few days off to tweak some things.

YTD: 27-23


Saturday
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1)Ohio State(+4.5)

Michigan State is only 2-5 S/U on the road, while Ohio State is a nice 10-4 S/U at home.

Spartans have a very poor Defensive FG% on the road of 51.3%.....Yikes!!.......while the Buckeyes have a home Defensive FG% of 43.8%.......quite a difference.

OSU also has a significant numerical edge in rebounding, so getting pts at home makes this a play for me to start the day.


2)Nebraska(-3)

Nebraska is a crisp 10-2 S/U on their home court, and we now know how Missouri may have been overrated at the start of the year.

Huskers have better numbers in Offensive FG%.........46.8% to 43.2%
Better 3 point success.......39.0% to 32.0%
Better Defensive FG%.....38.2% to 43.2%.

And these numbers are even more pronounced when comparing Mizzu's road stats to Nebraska's home stats.

I'll take the better team, playing at home, laying a very small number.



3)Iowa State(+2.5)

Iowa State is undefeated (12-0) at home this year and a very good 6-2 ATS at home.

The overall key numbers for this one seem to be a standoff.......Cowboys better at this, Shockers better at that......but one area where Iowa State does have an edge is on the boards.

Shockers are 4-2 ATS the last 6 vs Oklahoma State and (obviously) have won 4 straight at home as underdogs.


Back with the later games in a bit.

Good luck out there today,

Note:Home e-mail is down for about 5 days
Tiger

 

[Tiger]

Looks like Ohio State will be my 7th straight loss, so might be a good idea to have a long look at fading these.

4)Stanford(-4.5)

If this is a trap, then I'm going to get caught in it.

Cardinal are 19-0 YTD, 12-5 ATS, including 7-4 ATS at home. Arizona is 14-5 YTD, but are 7-11 ATS, including 3-5 ATS on the road.

Stanford is 4-0 ATS the last 4 in this series and have a HUGE edge at the defensive end, giving up just 59.2 pts/gm at home, while Arizona gives up 80.7 pts/gm on the road and this is their 4th straight on the road.....0-3 ATS the first 3.

 

[Tiger]

Adding
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5)Rice(+2.5)

Gotta feel that this line has been skewed too far by that blowout loss , 105-62, at UTEP two days ago. Ya, they got clobbered, but actually are the better team here today.........15-6 S/U including 6-4 on the road.

Rice has better numbers in:
OFG%........46.7% to 43.3%
DFG%................43.2% to 46.9%
They are statistically better at the 3 ball, and on the boards, and have won and covered the the last 3 vs Boise State.



6)Pittsburgh(-3.5)

Pitt simply far too talented for this 10-8 Irish squad to handle over 40 minutes. They have advantages in all my important categories, but their defence is the key................

Defensive FG% for the Panthers is an outstanding 38.8% YTD while Notre Dame checks in at 43.9%.........these numbers translate to Pitt giving up an average of 55.9 pts/gm YTD, compared to 69.3 for Notre Dame, and over the last 5 games for each team, the difference is even greater, as Pitt has given up an average of just 54.2 pts/gm and the Irish 70.6.


From what I have seen of them so far this year, I think Notre Dame will have a very hard time solving this Pitt defence, and I'll lay the small amount on this road favourite.

 

[IE]

email problem noted Tiger, thanks.