ncaa saturday

[Joe De]

Nothing again this week...the following are in order of preference and the numbers say play these...
UNLV+10..yes i know their terrible on the road but with 2 scores out of the hole make this a don't laugh pick..by got my ass handed to me 2 weeks ago on this team is why i haven't... ..i've played already and will ride this 2 more times before game time.

South Carolina +3 win S/U
Arkansas State+4'...this team is a covering machine on or off the road..win S/U
The rest of the best>
Boston College ..i show win S/U
N.C State+6'..can't figure out why so many points..trends have a hand in this..but i show this very close to one of the best picks of the week..but i'm going small because of the hoods in Baltimore might have thing to say about the outcome of this game...paranoid about better teams getting too many points
Virginia+13 or more ..this team you must mark your calendars to play next year...early futures
Wyoming +10 ..nothing under this trend play....6-1Ats..in the last 7 yrs.
I've got six more i'm looking at and will post ...gl

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Joe:

One question re UNLV. What about potential cold in the mountains? I realize the Vegas desert does get cold occassionally, but it's not quite like what they may encounter at Utah.

I don't disagree w/ the pick. Just asking if you think the Rebs will feel out of their element Saturday.

On paper, no doubt they can play w/ a disheartened Utes club.

 

[Joe De]

Hello Chucky..don't have an anwser on the weather effects on either team ...i play the numbers the way they fall and don't fight 'em....my picks are not very popular nor are they high profile games...the objective is to pull from all games and find the values from dogs...preferable homedogs......this week i see value in high profile games....Notre Dame looks good to give up to 30....like Boise St...same way.... ..
What do you like this week ???

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Joe:

I respect your work. I'm more of a situational capper. I do think it's worth thinking twice about southern teams playing in the cold. Take a look at scores from last weekend in these gms:
MiaFL @ Rut
SDSt @ BYU
Ariz @ OregSt
ArzSt @ WashSt
UCLA @ Wash: road tm covered
Texas @ Neb
NFL: Jax @ NYG
NFL: Mia @ GB

For the above reason, I personally will be checking weather forecasts for Salt Lake City. UNLV can play w/ Utah under normal circumstances. Just don't want to back them if they're way out of their element. Not too many freezing days in the desert.

Agree w/ u on Boise. Played em. Rice will be total fish out of water. Probably the strongest home field in the country. Boise rips em a new hole w/ Dinwiddie on the Blue Turf, and Rice in trouble playing from behind w/ the option.

Some others I like:
WestVa
Purdue
OleMiss
LSU
Georgia Tech

GL, man.

 

[Joe De]

I don't disagree!
LSU is a no play ..too many internal problems with that team and put on the road just compounds the situation.
The remaining teams are preference calls.. the spread is fair...Ole
Miss has some injuries that will slow them down from scoring...This is a critical game for each team should be a good game..i favor Georgia

 

[Ga Dawg]

i'm with you on Georgia Joe de. they have a fire under their ass now to win the SEC champ game. They are going to come out with every thing they have.

 

[Joe De]

ADDING ............Air Force -18.............Strong Play

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Joe:

Night gm for Utah-UNLV. 41* expected. Not sure I can play UNLV there.

GL, man.

 

[Master Capper]

Joe:

UNLV I have losing by 6.5
SC I have winning by 1
ARK State good situation qith opponets QB doubtful
BC, pass flip a coin, Neers tough in Morgantown and have a better coach.
NC STATE, I like outright
UVA should stay in the game
Wyo-I have losing by 11
LOVE AIR FORCE

 

[Joe De]

whoa...UVA ..is your thinking that the ACC can't stand up to the Big 10????

 

[Master Capper]

Chucky,

Just out of courisity wouldn't your LSU pick go against your theory about warm weather teams playing in cold weather? I like this theory and I checked some stats from last season and it does seem to hold water.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Valid point. But Lexington forecast for Saturday afternoon is 66*.

I saw only two gms where the visitor may be adversely affected by cold on Saturday:
UNLV
Rice

I may have missed some. But I'm personally leery about taking either of those two road tms Saturday.

I do agree w/ JoeDe on Boise. Rice option requires timing, and I think they'll be way out of whack on the Blue Lake.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Joe:

One note on why that MD line looks jacked up. Friedgen is perfect SU/ATS as fav w/ the Terps. I think 13-0.

Not saying the high # is legit. But some people may be playing into the undefeated coaching trend.

GL this weekend.

 

[Joe De]

thx goat i read that also, somewhere...fyi besides what i posted above ....these are the plays considered to be winners ...SJS.....Fla.St.......Colorado.....N.Ill..one of hellahs picks and i agree ,,,,they are strong..watched them play 3 weeks ago and i was impressed with their discipline on the offensive line..BG is in deep shit here...UCLA...and Wash St. just made my decision with this game..the numbers are close but the win over USC a few weeks ago was the key ..

I'm going to start another thread this one is getting old and boring