have fallen out of the habit of posting plays regularly (not that i think anyone is too distraught over that) but in late season my plays evolve away from straight handicapping to a more mechanical approach based upon line movement and second half advantages. both these approaches mean i make plays at the last moment, thus the posting difficulty.
my ncaa tournament play leans more toward seed trends than game handicapping, so i can offer up my game picks.
there is twenty years worth of data available for the 64 team tourney, and some of the trends are skewed enought to be statistically significant imo. accordingly, i start with the seed trends and then handicap from there.
10, 12, and 3 seeds have been the most successful ats in the first round to date so yesterday i played all 6 teams so seeded, resuting in a 3-3 split. main reason for that was the 10 seeds iowa and creighton both falling (i got creighton @ +1-).
also play totals based upon historical trends, taking strong plays on 12/5 over and 10/7 under,and regular plays on 15-2, 16/1, and 11/6 under. these produced a nice return yesterday, with tops going 2-1 and regulars going 5-2.
today there are three 12's (odu, gwu, nm), one 10 (ncsu) and one 3 (kan). will probably play all of them, although right now i have some reservations on three of them. wolfpack gives me pause because they are in that rare position of being a favored lower seed. these teams have historically done poorly althought the sample is pretty small. i'll probably play the wolfpack today based upon my personal inclination that they will play a solid game today, only question is how well charlottte will play. with n mex, there is a question about grainger's status, and if he doen't play it will hamstring the lobos. linw movement may be bearing this out as i see 'nova going form -4 to -5- while more than half of the early action has been on the lobos. kansas still has langford as questionable but i intend to play the jayhawks regardless.
as to totals, system give strong plays on ncs/uncc under, odu/msu over, gwu/gt over, nm/vil over, and stm/siu under. also have regular plays on cfla/uconn under, dsu/duke under, sela/osu under, oak/unc under, and ni/wisc under. will likely play all except the ni/wisc under, as i will not play any side or total where over 90% of the action is going the same way. just no way to be getting a fair line value in such a stuation.
will have some second round systems also. good luck to all madjackers in their march madness investments.
my ncaa tournament play leans more toward seed trends than game handicapping, so i can offer up my game picks.
there is twenty years worth of data available for the 64 team tourney, and some of the trends are skewed enought to be statistically significant imo. accordingly, i start with the seed trends and then handicap from there.
10, 12, and 3 seeds have been the most successful ats in the first round to date so yesterday i played all 6 teams so seeded, resuting in a 3-3 split. main reason for that was the 10 seeds iowa and creighton both falling (i got creighton @ +1-).
also play totals based upon historical trends, taking strong plays on 12/5 over and 10/7 under,and regular plays on 15-2, 16/1, and 11/6 under. these produced a nice return yesterday, with tops going 2-1 and regulars going 5-2.
today there are three 12's (odu, gwu, nm), one 10 (ncsu) and one 3 (kan). will probably play all of them, although right now i have some reservations on three of them. wolfpack gives me pause because they are in that rare position of being a favored lower seed. these teams have historically done poorly althought the sample is pretty small. i'll probably play the wolfpack today based upon my personal inclination that they will play a solid game today, only question is how well charlottte will play. with n mex, there is a question about grainger's status, and if he doen't play it will hamstring the lobos. linw movement may be bearing this out as i see 'nova going form -4 to -5- while more than half of the early action has been on the lobos. kansas still has langford as questionable but i intend to play the jayhawks regardless.
as to totals, system give strong plays on ncs/uncc under, odu/msu over, gwu/gt over, nm/vil over, and stm/siu under. also have regular plays on cfla/uconn under, dsu/duke under, sela/osu under, oak/unc under, and ni/wisc under. will likely play all except the ni/wisc under, as i will not play any side or total where over 90% of the action is going the same way. just no way to be getting a fair line value in such a stuation.
will have some second round systems also. good luck to all madjackers in their march madness investments.
