Nevada / So. Miss discussion...

[LordofBalls]

Hi guys,
it's friday morning, and the Nev/SMiss game is saturday eve... lines moved up to SMiss -8.5 and 63 at the 2 places I use..

but before I make my final selection, I'd like to hear what you guys are thinking on this one plz.

I played the OVER already in a few parlays and teasers last wk (nothing straight yet)...
2 Teasers tied to OVER 56 >> 282/625
1 parlay w/Over 62 >> 159/731

I'm Leaning Heavy on Nevada...


My thoughts...
*I know from living up there for a few yrs that Coach Ault will always try to score.. (he's very popular w/the bettors that support his city and school) he doesn't sit on leads until very late in the game

*My only knowledge of Smiss was when I saw them kick Houston's butt in final game... they looked very solid and prepared.
*So. Miss coach has had lots of talk about him moving up to the next level at some school.. he's a hot commodity.

*Looking bk at their records, So Miss lost to UAB (their 11th gm!!) and Marshall (gm #2 for them).. 2 tms not well-regarded..
*Nevada lost to Oregon(by 49)/Tx Tech (by1pt)/Boise (by 20)/La Tech (by 4)/Ut St (by 4)... a lot more impressive to me

*both teams very capable offenses.. So Miss probably has a better qb(right?)


so.... help me out... tell me why u like what u like.. :shrug:

let's find the right side here ~ glta!!

LoB
:SIB

 

[hawkeye]

I jumped on the over when it 1st came out at 56--big jump to 62. Its one of the very few bowl games I will watch. GL

 

[Cie]

Smiss is a complacent team at this point following their most gratifying win in some time. No way I would a large number with a team in this spot. Nevada will move the football. I'm on it now, but may add another unit tomorrow.. Good luck

 

[Corley1011]

USM will be distracted being on the island being that 99% if not 100% of the team has not been there before... the fans are pissed because most of them can't afford the trip... they just lost their coach and their AD and they're coming off their biggest win in school history... LOVE Nevada in this spot... think they win SU

 

[Betone]

USM will be distracted being on the island being that 99% if not 100% of the team has not been there before... the fans are pissed because most of them can't afford the trip... they just lost their coach and their AD and they're coming off their biggest win in school history... LOVE Nevada in this spot... think they win SU

If I were those kids , I would just enjoy the Island and screw the game....everyone has bailed....WTF..

Nevada, ML seems possible. :0074

 

[Corley1011]

Love the ML buddy :0008

 

[McVegas]

Nevada +9 but $$ line is only +280 (with local).....just to compare, NFL Mia +9, $$ line +375.......WTF? Good luck to all.....Have Nevada in bowl pool (only +6 1/2)....

 

[ejthree]

Guys followed this So Miss for several years and this year they are the real deal...These kids are very very good and believe they come to play imho...also DO NOT believe it was just the public that drove this line from 6 to 9...that being said...my money will be on the golden eagles as i have -6 and some -7..may buy some back according to line movement...Merry Christmas to ALL and glgl on all ur bowl picks Madjackers...:SIB

 

[joefrog91]

I think So Miss is the better team, but 9 pts is a lot with all their distractions. I'm going to wait to see if it changes either way later today to make my decision. If it goes higher, I'll bet Nevada. If it goes lower, I'll bet So Miss.

 

[ageecee]

its either Nevada or the Over for me..

 

[Destructor D]

So many distractions for Southern Miss... coach and AD gone for one thing! Coming off biggest win maybe ever, being in Hawaii on Christmas and facing an inferior Nevada squad. Like the points.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Bowl games are all about motivation. The Golden Eagles already won their bowl game (Houston). On the other hand, Nevada has an opportunity to end its season with a win over a ranked team. Nevada plus the points is a Christmas gift, and a straight up win is a real possibility.

 

[Cie]

Guys followed this So Miss for several years and this year they are the real deal...These kids are very very good and believe they come to play imho...also DO NOT believe it was just the public that drove this line from 6 to 9...that being said...my money will be on the golden eagles as i have -6 and some -7..may buy some back according to line movement...Merry Christmas to ALL and glgl on all ur bowl picks Madjackers...:SIB

Taking emotion out, it would appear smiss is off of their goy vs. a team playing its goy today. I'm on the dog. GL the rest of the way.

 

[yanno]

I would love to find a good reason for going with S Miss and the better team. And I hate that the Nevada bus is pretty full. But...

In the category of let-downs, how disappointed is this USM group that Fedora is jumping ship? Have they quit believing in him and tuned him out in practice over this final month of the season? And how do they respond to Fedora calling the trip to Hawaii "a gift to the players" and what exactly does that mean?

Nevada is 7-5, but there non-con was brutal, including Oregon and Boise State, which should have them plenty battle tested, and it's expected that Southern Miss will send just 100 fans to Hawaii.

P.S. Nevada won the '05 Hawaii Bowl, 49-48 over UCF in OT.

ON THE OTHER HAND -

don't anticipate USM being completely disinterested. Got embarrassed by Dwight Dasher and MTSU in the postseason two years ago, and lost to Louisville last year - so gotta think they're hungry to win their first bowl since beating Troy back in '08. Losing Fedora is tough and all, and they are off the Houston win that made their season, but don't really see them laying down.


FINALLY -

There are so many distractions for Southern Miss, and they will take away from the overall motivation for this game. Nevada feels like they have something to prove and it's the perfect opportunity for them to come in, pound the ball, and maybe even get the outright win.


Notes from another site. Just FYI. Good Luck! :0008

 

[LordofBalls]

hey guys, spent the last 8 hrs w/mom at the hospital.. her 82 yr old hubby having abdominal surgery (he survived, but not sure how long he'll go.. we'll see).

so.. I missed participating in nfl 2nd halfs and pm games... and posting my pick on this game.

As stated in the first post, I played OVER 62.
*that looked shitty after 1st qtr, but they're going to have at least 24 pts and maybe 31 at halftime.
so I'm liking my chances!!


I also played a parlay w/Nevada to the over..

so.. fwiw.. My picks..

Nevada +9

Over 62

looks like most of us are rooting for the same thing ~ glta!!

LoB

 

[LordofBalls]

not good.... terrible day.. wks profits all go bk.. chargers over huge
teasers nev over huge, chargers +15 huuuge...

drat.

try it again monday :SIB

merry christmas gentlemen!

LoB

 

[hawkeye]

another boring defenisve game--when are we going to see theese 35-33 games?