Never seen a card like this before...big, big dogs everywhere!!!

[GM]

We've had weeks in the past couple years with some big dogs, but this week absolutely tops them all. The smallest spread for any game this Sunday is -5. Only two games out of 15 Sunday with favorites laying less than a TD?!? WTF!

I count seven underdogs with moneylines of +400 or greater. Bet 'em all, and if 2 of the 7 win outright you've made money. Possibly very nice money, with a couple of the ML's approaching +600. I am pretty sure that at least two will win outright.

Alternately...I may just bet every dog with the spread. There was a week ~sort of~ like this last year (though not quite as extreme as this week), in which there were 11 of 15 Sunday games with teams favored by 5? or more. The dogs only won two of those 11 games outright...but they covered with the points in an additional FIVE games...so 7-4 for the big dogs in that particular situation. I just don't see all these enormous favorites covering this weekend...won't happen.

I think it's time to throw all "football logic" out the window and just go with the math.

So right now I'm just torn on whether to go with the points or the ML. Weeks like this don't come along too often though...I am not going to let this go by. I think the ML route would be the more likely to be lucrative.

 

[bookie]

I think the large spread numbers are a reflection of alot of "square" picks that really hurt the books this year. Having said that, I agree with you about this week...alot of value out there.

 

[GM]

That's for sure.

Favorites have gone 38-21-2 the past 4 weeks. 64% cover rate. Now the lines go sky-high. No way this continues. Square players have made a bundle betting favorites, but you just can't lay a TD or more in almost every game and make money.

I just went back through my files to check when the last time was that favorites have outcovered dogs for five weeks in a row. My records go back to '99. And the answer is....never. Twice they've out-covered the dogs for four weeks in a row....the first 4 weeks of 2001, and these past four weeks.

The 2001 season started with favorites going 36-18 ATS over the first four weeks. In Week 5 the favorites went 3-11...6 dogs winning outright, another 5 with the spread. Even more surprisingly....in Week 6 that year the favs went an incredible 1-12, with 11 dogs winning outright. Talk about a huge momentum swing!

 

[bookie]

The 2001 season started with favorites going 36-18 ATS over the first four weeks. In Week 5 the favorites went 3-11...6 dogs winning outright, another 5 with the spread. Even more surprisingly....in Week 6 that year the favs went an incredible 1-12, with 11 dogs winning outright.

Thanks for posting that. I knew the scenerio was recent. That period of time was my first thought when I saw the spread sheet this week.

 

[kneifl]

With everything that was said in this thread....

:iagree: :iagree: :iagree:

No way these faves cover these large pointspreads this week. Going to be a doggy dog week for me this weekend. Only fave I really like is Carolina due to how well they have been playing lately. Other than that it's gonna be Jets, Browns, and Skins for me....

GLTA,

kneifl

 

[edludes]

The reason I'm here reading is because you are a consistenty good capper,from whom I can always glean very helpful information.Thank you for this.I remember the week last year that you refered to,but would like to as a friendly gesture harken up the old gambling axiom "never bet against a streak."I like,no love, some of the dogs this week too,but B'lo,Indy,NE,Carolina and Philly haven't failed to cover in the past month.Its not out of the question that one or more of them might continue their streaks not only thru this week,but thru the closing four games of the season.To me the saying means that a person could do better than to try to pick the week it'll stop for Indy,or NE or Philly for example.It true that sometimes you see the end of such a streak clearly beforehand and then confidently make the winning play,but think of the dough Pittsburg players and San Diego players made this year if they'd have played their teams thru their two month plus streaks ATS.Though there are only one or two favs that I am going to play (played Carolina-6 already),it looks to me as though some of these big favs are going to pay as well.Best of luck this weekend.Thanks for the helpful information.

 

[ssd]

Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way but don't you think that the reason Vegas bumped the lines on all the faves was to get us to play all the dogs? If they thought it would be a dog weekend, wouldn't they have left the faves #'s where they were at and made a killing? My opinion - you always have to handicap the games regardless of any trend

 

[SALTY DOG]

GM, this season has been so upside down I would
not be a bit surprised if the chalk cakewalked thru
the weekend....after week five I adjusted my
NFL strategy to a much more conservative ML
approach because i sensed a totally bazarre season
ahead, I made some critical mistakes at the first
of the season, thinking I had a good feel for
who to fade, one of those being San Diego, I
won't make that mistake next season, I will have
no preconceived notions next year at the first
of the season, I will observe the first few weeks
and go from there. I almost chimed in to your
thread in about week 4 or 5 but at the time I
was clueless....still am....... :142lmao:

 

[GM]

Thanks for the comments everyone.

edludes - It's true, they say don't bet against a streak. There are quite a few streaks at play - all those teams you mentioned, not to mention the "favorites-outcovering-the-dogs" streak has reached 4 weeks too (which is an eternity for that kind of thing). Maybe tonight when I really get down to it I will remove a team or two from it...but my gut says I shouldn't do that. As I was saying above, I think this goes beyond football logic. The money I have made this year, to be honest, has been on teams like you mentioned, plus totals. It'd be very hard for me to go against, say San Diego or Pittsburgh after all the success I've had with them. I'm just concerned that if I get picky and start eliminating this one and that one, I'm just as likely to remove a winner as I am a loser from the list.

ssd - I see what you are saying, but I don't personally agree. I think the books have gotten destroyed on favorites this year. Favorites are the natural side for most bettors to take anyways. For most bettors, if they have been successful this year taking the favs, I think it would be very hard for them to switch gears. Most casual bettors I know give the pointspread very little thought and just take "the better team"...and this year that's all you've really had to do to make money. Once the numbers get into the 7+ range on almost every game...I just think that is too extreme. Over the past 4 seasons, I have dogs getting 7 to 13 pts covering almost 60% of the time. Vegas probably does want more people on the dogs, but I don't necessarily believe at this point that is the wrong side. No doubt some of these heavy favs WILL cover the number Sunday. But a lot of teams will get backdoored & have no interest in covering 9 or 11 pts. They just want the win, especially at this time of year with playoff spots on the line. You also get teams who coast a bit when favored by too much...they think they have an easy game this weekend and then are shocked back to reality. It's only human nature when you have three or four tough foes in a row, and then you see an opponent who is supposedly far inferior to you...you ease up. I think for some of these .500 type teams (Buffalo, for one)...laying 11? pts...this is foreign territory for them. They may not start to really play until halftime. By then covering the spread may be out of the question, if down 10 or 14 at the half. I think you will see at least a couple of huge outright upsets this weekend as a result. (And I wish I could tell you exactly who, but again, I'm going more on psychology and numbers than I am football logic in this particular instance).

Salty Dog - As someone who usually takes a lot of dogs I got hammered pretty bad myself early this year, and I too adapted and started taking favorites to survive. I stuck with the tried and true a bit too late (stubborn or stupid, I don't know )... but it wasn't til about Week 7 that I actually switched what I was doing. First thing was to cut my unit size down...second cut down on the number of plays I was making...make a few small gains & go from there. Things have stabilized and I've actually made back about a third of what I lost at the start. Feels weird taking a whole bunch of favorites and Overs... LOL. Whatever you have to do though. Anyways, I am still, despite the way this crazy season has gone, confident in my numbers. I'm going to give it a shot this weekend...if it doesn't work out, so be it. But I really, really, think this week is a good opportunity to take the dog side and make some nice gains.

 

[CWood97]

Great thread guys. thinking about round robin 2x parlaying the ML's for all the +400 and up dogs, Oakland and Seattle (8 dogs in total). If two hit you are looking pretty good and if three hit its a real good day.

JoePub is due to take a BIG fall and this week is the week IMO.

 

[smart_money]

double digit dogs have sucked in december for years.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Double digit road dogs in December are 13-25-1 since 2000. I may sit this weekend, I just see it as a funky card. GL

 

[IX_Bender]

HITMAN - it takes that kind of discipline to make money in this business. Simply cannot put a price on gut intuition, just ask any gambler.

Tomorrow's card is interesting to say the least, and we might find some folks putting down larger stakes than previous weeks due to the absence of a Saturday college football card. That would be a mistake before you hit the submit button.

It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or gained its simply transferred from one perception to another. -GG

 

[Billy Barooooooo]

I was thinking this last week and got burned. I will go down with the ship this week if the dogs fail to cover.

BOL to you today!!!!


BB

 

[FB-49]

I read somewhere that you have to go back to 1990 to have a week where the spread is over 4 points in every game.As usual I will be looking hard for some live dogs.Chargers have been a cash cow for me also this year,but I can't see TB losing by a touchdown with all they have on the line this week.

GL

 

[Randercity]

Someone mentioned that VEGAS is "looking" for DOG money, so shouldn't you go the other way.... well, by my estimation, every game has been bet UP by JOE PUB, except 3 games, and some over 2 + points!

I think this weekend is gonna be ugly for JOE PUB. The lines were adjusted slightly because when good teams keep winning and covering against bad, the Power Rating goes up on the GOOD, down on the BAD, hence the larger spreads. NO WAY these big favorites continue to cover like this.... been doing this way too long to know that. VEGAS has taken it in the backside bad for a month, and especially the last two weeks, so today is redemption and payback time. :SIB

What happens with JOE PUB bettors is they DO tend to bet the BIG FAVS, thinking how easy is this??? INDY only has to win by 2 TDS, no problem, etc. They see the big spread, and don't think twice about pounding it since all these teams like NE, SD, PHILLY, etc have been covering. Nearly impossible for good teams to stay UP for everyone, and as mentioned, some will coast today, others rest regulars for playoffs etc... btw... didn't include PITT since they have lost vs the spread the past two weeks, barely winning.

I may not go crazy and play all dogs... like others, I like PANTHERS today, but I'm seriously thinking of doing the whole M/L and PTS thing and see what happens....

we shall see soon!

 

[CardShark]

Pretty dumb comments here. If teams that were winning by 20 points were 7 pt favs and now are 20, it makes no difference. No one should bet a sev pt fav thinking they win by 10. THey should bet a 7 pt fave if they think they will win by 20, and in that case it makes little difference if they are 7 or 11 pt favs.

The main think is to use the same unit betting. Because the worst thing that can happen is if fav players start playing huge unit sthen lose a week. But if you maintain the betting units, keep riding the dominant teams.

THe extra value this week is really in the crap games and tight matchups. But anyone that takes Houston 11 is a fool.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Pretty dumb comments here.

That's #1

 

[wox11]

I CANT SEE CLEVELAND :scared WINNING OUTRIGHT UNLESS THE WEATHER IS TERRIBLE & BUFFALO HAS ABOUT 5+ TURNOVERS ~ ALL OTHER DOGS I WOULDNT RULE OUT

 

[Billy Barooooooo]

That's #1

:clap: :clap: :clap:

BB