San Jose State Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
Keep an eye on the chess match that should unfold between offensive coordinators Ken Margerum and Steve Morton and defensive coordinator Osia Lewis. The Spartans want to run the ball, but they will adjust and throw more if they can't get the ground game going. Margerum and Morton use a number of different formations to keep defenses off balance and make it harder for them to pick up on tendencies. RB Yonus Davis doesn't have great power or size, but he is an efficient runner, making him an effective fit for the scheme. He has the vision to recognize when defenders get caught out of position and the lateral mobility to exploit the seam created by the mistake. In addition, Margerum and Morton can afford to stay committed to the ground game because James Callier and Patrick Perry provide excellent depth behind Davis. Callier is a big back that runs hard between the tackles and Perry shows good speed when he's able to get into the open field. Lewis will counter with an attacking 3-3-5 scheme. It's a defense predicated on speed and blitzing defenders from several different angles. San Jose State's blockers should have to adjust on the fly as a result and that's a lot easier said than done. LOBO Quincy Black is a hybrid safety/linebacker who can line up all over the field and has sideline-to-sideline range. If he isn't accounted for on every snap, he could have a huge game and put pressure on the Spartans to change their offensive approach.
San Jose State vs. New Mexico
vs.
When: Dec. 23, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Albuquerque, N.M.
QB Adam Tafralis is accurate and can be tough to stop when he is taking what the defense gives him. The problem is he can start to lose the strike zone and force the ball into coverage when the pass rush is able to get to him, so sound pass protection is essential. San Jose State's offensive line is a cohesive unit that has done a good job of keeping Tafralis upright for the most part. It's important they continue to stay on the same page so they can pick up New Mexico's different blitzes, but that should prove difficult because this game is being played at the Lobos' home stadium. The noise level should make it harder for the offensive linemen to communicate and for Tafralis to vary the cadence. In addition, corners Glover Quinn and DeAndre Wright have the cover skills to hold their own working against wide receiver James Jones and John Broussard. Consequently, Tarfalis should have to hold onto the ball longer at times. Making matters worse for the Spartans, the pass rush will be that much more aggressive if the ground game sputters and New Mexico is able to put Tarfalis in situations with pass-heavy tendencies.
New Mexico Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
It's no secret that the ball is going be in RB Rodney Ferguson's hands early and often, but that doesn't mean San Jose State will be able to stop him. First off, Ferguson is a powerful runner who is big enough to carry a heavy workload and quick enough to get outside at times. If a Spartan run defense that has given up more than 4 yards per carry doesn't tackle well and take sound pursuit angles, Ferguson should be able to keep the chains moving. Second, the Lobo offensive line is massive and experienced. It should be able to control the line of scrimmage and it could wear San Jose State's defensive front down over the course of the game. Third, safeties Rakine Toomes and Christopher Vedder don't have great size and they are more effective dropping into coverage than they are playing close to the line in a run support role. Fourth, though MLB Matt Castelo plays with a mean streak and always seems to be around the ball, he is undersized. He should have a hard time stopping Ferguson's forward momentum even when he's able to read the play quickly and meet Ferguson in the hole.
New Mexico lost senior QB Kole McKamey to a knee injury in the second game of the season and Chris Nelson stepped in for him. Nelson started the following four games and the Lobos lost three of them, so coach Rocky Long turned to redshirt freshman Donovan Porterie. Porterie led New Mexico to three wins over the next four games and earned the confidence of his teammates in the process. Although he missed the final two games of the regular season with an ankle injury, he is expected to start. Regardless of who starts under center, the Lobos' ability to move the ball though the air may come down to whether or not their porous pass protection is any better than an impotent Spartan pass rush. After all, only five Division I-A teams have surrendered more sacks than New Mexico, and San Jose State's pass rush has been one of the least productive in the nation. Unfortunately for the Lobos, the edge goes to the Spartans because head coach Dick Tomey is a former defensive coordinator. He should locate some glaring weakness in the Lobos' protection and exploit them. That said, it's important that Porterie or Nelson throw away from DC Dwight Lowery when they do get time to look for wide receivers Travis Brown and Marcus Smith downfield. Lowery has good closing speed and the hands to make quarterbacks pay when they throw in his area.
Special Teams
San Jose State PK Jared Strubeck isn't the most accurate kicker in the nation, but he has excellent range and can connect on field goal attempts beyond 40 yards. Though Strubeck can also get good distance on his kickoffs, he's just as inconsistent in that role and has kicked the ball out of bounds three times this year. P Waylon Prather, on the other hand, doesn't have many weaknesses. He has great power and has placed 19 of his 55 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard-line. KOR Jacob French has struggled and it's unlikely that changes against a strong New Mexico kickoff cover unit. PR James Jones possesses good top-end speed and flashed some big-play ability. He could give the Spartans quality starting field position or even points because the Lobos have not done a great job of covering punts this year.
New Mexico PK Kenny Byrd is as close to automatic as it gets when attempting field goals inside 40 yards and he has the range to connect from long distances. In addition, 32 of his 58 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks. P Jordan Scott generally gets the ball away quickly, shows adequate range and has placed 18 of his 63 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. KORs Marcus Smith and DeAndre Wright possess good speed and vision, but they are inconsistent and face one of the best kickoff cover units in the nation. Though PR Thomas Wilson isn't going to make many mistakes and he reads his blocks fairly well, he lacks elite top-end speed and elusiveness. He'll pick up what he can working against a mediocre Spartan punt cover unit, but it's unlikely he'll break a long return that shifts momentum.
Matchups
? New Mexico RB Rodney Ferguson vs. San Jose State MLB Matt Castelo
? San Jose State WR James Jones vs. New Mexico DC DeAndre Wright
? New Mexico WR Marcus Smith vs. San Jose State DC Dwight Lowery
Scouts' Edge
Coach Dick Tomey has done an excellent job of turning around a struggling San Jose State program and he should be commended for it, but the Spartans aren't good enough to win a bowl game at this point. RB Rodney Ferguson and his massive offensive line will allow New Mexico to control the clock, protect a lead once they establish one and, most important, mask its concerns at quarterback. Donovan Porterie and Chris Nelson shouldn't be put in a position where they have to make a lot of big plays, so they should be effective enough to move the offense. The Spartans, on the other hand, should have a harder time establishing the run against a Lobo defensive scheme that is built on speed and swarms the football. QB Adam Tafralis should turn in an admirable performance and help keep the score close. However, New Mexico's pass rush should also force him to make some critical mistakes that cause San Jose State drives to sputter. In addition, the Spartans haven't played in a bowl game since 1990, and they have to play at the Lobos' home stadium.
Prediction: Lobos 24, Spartans 14
Keep an eye on the chess match that should unfold between offensive coordinators Ken Margerum and Steve Morton and defensive coordinator Osia Lewis. The Spartans want to run the ball, but they will adjust and throw more if they can't get the ground game going. Margerum and Morton use a number of different formations to keep defenses off balance and make it harder for them to pick up on tendencies. RB Yonus Davis doesn't have great power or size, but he is an efficient runner, making him an effective fit for the scheme. He has the vision to recognize when defenders get caught out of position and the lateral mobility to exploit the seam created by the mistake. In addition, Margerum and Morton can afford to stay committed to the ground game because James Callier and Patrick Perry provide excellent depth behind Davis. Callier is a big back that runs hard between the tackles and Perry shows good speed when he's able to get into the open field. Lewis will counter with an attacking 3-3-5 scheme. It's a defense predicated on speed and blitzing defenders from several different angles. San Jose State's blockers should have to adjust on the fly as a result and that's a lot easier said than done. LOBO Quincy Black is a hybrid safety/linebacker who can line up all over the field and has sideline-to-sideline range. If he isn't accounted for on every snap, he could have a huge game and put pressure on the Spartans to change their offensive approach.
San Jose State vs. New Mexico
vs.
When: Dec. 23, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Albuquerque, N.M.
QB Adam Tafralis is accurate and can be tough to stop when he is taking what the defense gives him. The problem is he can start to lose the strike zone and force the ball into coverage when the pass rush is able to get to him, so sound pass protection is essential. San Jose State's offensive line is a cohesive unit that has done a good job of keeping Tafralis upright for the most part. It's important they continue to stay on the same page so they can pick up New Mexico's different blitzes, but that should prove difficult because this game is being played at the Lobos' home stadium. The noise level should make it harder for the offensive linemen to communicate and for Tafralis to vary the cadence. In addition, corners Glover Quinn and DeAndre Wright have the cover skills to hold their own working against wide receiver James Jones and John Broussard. Consequently, Tarfalis should have to hold onto the ball longer at times. Making matters worse for the Spartans, the pass rush will be that much more aggressive if the ground game sputters and New Mexico is able to put Tarfalis in situations with pass-heavy tendencies.
New Mexico Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
It's no secret that the ball is going be in RB Rodney Ferguson's hands early and often, but that doesn't mean San Jose State will be able to stop him. First off, Ferguson is a powerful runner who is big enough to carry a heavy workload and quick enough to get outside at times. If a Spartan run defense that has given up more than 4 yards per carry doesn't tackle well and take sound pursuit angles, Ferguson should be able to keep the chains moving. Second, the Lobo offensive line is massive and experienced. It should be able to control the line of scrimmage and it could wear San Jose State's defensive front down over the course of the game. Third, safeties Rakine Toomes and Christopher Vedder don't have great size and they are more effective dropping into coverage than they are playing close to the line in a run support role. Fourth, though MLB Matt Castelo plays with a mean streak and always seems to be around the ball, he is undersized. He should have a hard time stopping Ferguson's forward momentum even when he's able to read the play quickly and meet Ferguson in the hole.
New Mexico lost senior QB Kole McKamey to a knee injury in the second game of the season and Chris Nelson stepped in for him. Nelson started the following four games and the Lobos lost three of them, so coach Rocky Long turned to redshirt freshman Donovan Porterie. Porterie led New Mexico to three wins over the next four games and earned the confidence of his teammates in the process. Although he missed the final two games of the regular season with an ankle injury, he is expected to start. Regardless of who starts under center, the Lobos' ability to move the ball though the air may come down to whether or not their porous pass protection is any better than an impotent Spartan pass rush. After all, only five Division I-A teams have surrendered more sacks than New Mexico, and San Jose State's pass rush has been one of the least productive in the nation. Unfortunately for the Lobos, the edge goes to the Spartans because head coach Dick Tomey is a former defensive coordinator. He should locate some glaring weakness in the Lobos' protection and exploit them. That said, it's important that Porterie or Nelson throw away from DC Dwight Lowery when they do get time to look for wide receivers Travis Brown and Marcus Smith downfield. Lowery has good closing speed and the hands to make quarterbacks pay when they throw in his area.
Special Teams
San Jose State PK Jared Strubeck isn't the most accurate kicker in the nation, but he has excellent range and can connect on field goal attempts beyond 40 yards. Though Strubeck can also get good distance on his kickoffs, he's just as inconsistent in that role and has kicked the ball out of bounds three times this year. P Waylon Prather, on the other hand, doesn't have many weaknesses. He has great power and has placed 19 of his 55 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard-line. KOR Jacob French has struggled and it's unlikely that changes against a strong New Mexico kickoff cover unit. PR James Jones possesses good top-end speed and flashed some big-play ability. He could give the Spartans quality starting field position or even points because the Lobos have not done a great job of covering punts this year.
New Mexico PK Kenny Byrd is as close to automatic as it gets when attempting field goals inside 40 yards and he has the range to connect from long distances. In addition, 32 of his 58 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks. P Jordan Scott generally gets the ball away quickly, shows adequate range and has placed 18 of his 63 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. KORs Marcus Smith and DeAndre Wright possess good speed and vision, but they are inconsistent and face one of the best kickoff cover units in the nation. Though PR Thomas Wilson isn't going to make many mistakes and he reads his blocks fairly well, he lacks elite top-end speed and elusiveness. He'll pick up what he can working against a mediocre Spartan punt cover unit, but it's unlikely he'll break a long return that shifts momentum.
Matchups
? New Mexico RB Rodney Ferguson vs. San Jose State MLB Matt Castelo
? San Jose State WR James Jones vs. New Mexico DC DeAndre Wright
? New Mexico WR Marcus Smith vs. San Jose State DC Dwight Lowery
Scouts' Edge
Coach Dick Tomey has done an excellent job of turning around a struggling San Jose State program and he should be commended for it, but the Spartans aren't good enough to win a bowl game at this point. RB Rodney Ferguson and his massive offensive line will allow New Mexico to control the clock, protect a lead once they establish one and, most important, mask its concerns at quarterback. Donovan Porterie and Chris Nelson shouldn't be put in a position where they have to make a lot of big plays, so they should be effective enough to move the offense. The Spartans, on the other hand, should have a harder time establishing the run against a Lobo defensive scheme that is built on speed and swarms the football. QB Adam Tafralis should turn in an admirable performance and help keep the score close. However, New Mexico's pass rush should also force him to make some critical mistakes that cause San Jose State drives to sputter. In addition, the Spartans haven't played in a bowl game since 1990, and they have to play at the Lobos' home stadium.
Prediction: Lobos 24, Spartans 14
