New to the ponies..

[pacerfan]

Can you guys give me a basic strategy for betting horses? Lately I've been going to the OTB and buying a program. What should I be looking at in this program: finish, time, etc...in order to make an 'educated guess' as to who will win the race?

Also, what is a claiming race vs. a non-claiming race?

Thanks for any and all help..

 

[Valuist]

I would say buy any of Andy Beyer, Steve Davidowitz or James Quinn's books on handicapping. When you start betting, bet very small. You will lose at first. Over time as you get more familiar with each situation, you will get better.

I think its much tougher to start now, with full card simulcasting. When I started, I only had to handicap one track. It could be overwhelming to try to play several tracks when you are first starting out.

 

[Dogfish]

like v.said many good books think one good basic one by davidowitz was called betting thourghbreds.you mention the program,you must get the daily racing form learn what everything means,i think there website has alot of info. on basics.also understand pari-mutual wagering (betting amongst ourselves)how we get juiced,and how the tracks,trainers,jockeys get there cut.your competion is sitting next to you .the track doesnt care who wins.dont be a sheep following the herd,the public favorite only wins .33% of the time.good luck on your long journey................................:burnout

 

[ferdville]

Great advice from Valuist - stick to one track when you start. That will enable you to learn many of the little nuances like track bias, jock-trainer combos, post position bias, etc - little things that add up big in the long run - but things you might not see if betting 3 or 4 tracks. The Racing Form does have an excellent web site. Try to learn and understand every bit of information that they offer on the site and in the form. Books will be of value - I might wait to read Quinn until you have a better understanding of the game as a whole. There is a great deal of information available on line - all tracks have their own web sites and sometimes you can find some valuable stuff that way too. There is another site, I'll look it up, and post it later. I think many of the regulars here use it. It is free and the commentary will give you some good insights into this game. Not recommending blind betting on the info - but reading it will help. Another thing that you should try to do takes place "after" the race is over. Go back to the form and try to figure out why that horse won. In some instances, it is virtually impossible to figure. But in most cases, careful study will point out at least some of the reasons that the horse won the race. Good luck!

 

[ferdville]

www.speedfigures.com

 

[pacerfan]

Thanks guys.

A few more to throw at you:

1. Are there bad bets in horse racing, such as a 10 team parlay in football?

2. When I am looking at the program, it usually only lists the last 5 races ran by that horse. Is this enough info? What if the horse has no history?

Thanks again

 

[ferdville]

Like a 10 team parlay, there are many bets in horse racing that have little chance of winning. The Pick Six, Superfecta, Daily Triples, etc., etc., are all longshots. However, like a 10 teamer, you bet a little and win a lot if you collect. One way to check your odds is to find out what the "takeout" is. That is money removed from the mutuel pool by state. Bigger the take out, the worse your odds are of winning. If I was starting out, I would learn the game and initially only bet win and place - show if you want. You will likely keep above water this way until you learn about the game. However, it also depends on your bankroll and what your expectations are. There are many ways to make money at the track - but the guys I know that actually do, basically stick to one thing. Some play win and place only. SOme play pick six only. Some play trifectas only. In my opinion, if you spread your money out too thin, you'll be very lucky to break even. There are just too many bets to make at most tracks and otb's. I made a small fortune on Pick Six plays in the early 80's. Now, I seldom bet more than $16 on it. Too many groups to contend with. Others would tell you to pick a solid horse and use it as a key in various exotics. There is no one forumula. Learn to handicap first - then try to define the type of bet that will suit your purpose. Hell, I had 2 good years where I did nothing but make show bets. You can make money on every available play if you do things right. But to win on a regular basis requires so much time that unless you are unemployed, there are not enough hours in the day to handicap properly. A word about tips - maybe others have had different experiences. Generally speaking, I would say don't play any of them. I was well aquainted with most of the top jockeys on the Southern California circuit and they gave me more losers than I would have got using a dartboard. The saying always goes that the richest guy is the guy that books the jockeys bets. Trainers are not much better. Most of them lie and the best you can really get from them is if they are trying or if the horse is sore. The best information I ever got was from one professional (track) clocker and another individual that clocked on his own. Once you spend the five years or so it takes you to learn handicapping basics, be sure you spend some time learning about horses themselves. Learn to look at a horse and tell if his feet are bad. Find out if a dull coat means a dull horse. Find out who can run when they are sweating wet and who can't. Learn to watch a horse warm up and determine his fitness from that. I could go on forever. Keep in mind that this is going to be a long and arduous journey. I think it is the toughest game in town. But it is fun and the horses are beautiful animals.

 

[alb]

Personally, I think place is your best bet. Too many things can happen in a race and you won't sweat out photos. The take percentage is lower on straight win/place/show bets than the exotic bets. When I worked at Woodbine I believe it was 14.9% on straight bets and about 28% for triactas.

 

[Patternseeker]

pacerfan,
not as knowledgeable as most folks here, like valuist and ferdville,
but i agree with them about simulcasting....
it will test your discipline and can lead to playing races
that you haven't handicapped (at least it has done that to me)..

and if the horse has no line, it is prolly a maiden,
meaning this is it's first race. and maiden races appear to me
to be bet with influence of workout times, breeding and trainer...

good luck, it is perhaps the toughest game,
but it is captivating.

 

[Valuist]

A bad bet is any bet that is poor value. If a legitimate 3-1 shot is going off at 6-5, a win bet would be very bad. Exactas involving the 2 betting favorites are usually overbet.

I would say learn to handicap first, bet small and as your handicapping gets sharper, then concentrate on the betting. Sometimes the best bets are negative impressions and betting against heavily bet horses.

One more thing: there's a video on how to judge horses' appearance by Joe Takatch. It will more than pay for itself. When I got it, I watched it over and over about 5-6 times. Get familiar with the signs of a ready racehorse because dull and uninterested horses will only cost you money.

 

[pacerfan]

Valuist..

I was going to ask u that same thing. If a horse opens @ 10-1 and is @ 2-1 at post, is this still worthy of a look if you liked it initially?

 

[Valuist]

Theoretically, I'd say no 100% of the time. However, there are certain barns that do bet and bet hard. I see this in Kentucky a lot where a horse looks like an outside contender at best and opens up at 6-5. Usually owners and trainers bet early because they want to be in the paddock and don't want to worry about getting shut out. Then the horse's odds usually start to drift upward. If its a horse off a layoff who's merits aren't obvious then the barn probably knows more than the rest of us, but then again maybe in those situations the horse shouldn't really be 10-1 then. But if its just a horse dropping sharply in class or a horse coming off a perfect trip, then its probably just overbet and should be avoided.

 

[vanvegas]

What a great thread this turned out to be. But where the hell is everyone on the weekends posting their picks. I rarely see consistent posting of picks that we can feed off of. I am no expert on most tracks outside California (well, I am no expert period), so it would be awesome if this forum was used more for picks. That way I can join you all on some picks and we can all win or lose together!! ha ha..

Seriously though, Thanks DogFish for your consistent posts. Today, I got home from work early, and you had the 6th and 7th at Santa Anita up, and I saw both picks, happened to agree with both and we both won. And if you followed my Trifecta pick then we picked up $180 on a $1 bet.

So, Thanks for posting this thread, newcomer to racing!! I hope you pick up on a lot of great information here. And to everyone else, thanks for the info, and keep this forum alive with a lot of picks and handicapping!!!!

As far as any advice from me. Similar to what all these guys have said. Start slow at one of your local tracks, or pick one famous track, ie. Santa Anita - and bet small. Check trends, hot barns, hot jockies. My favorite angle is Barns' stats with the different races, ie. Bob Baffert, famous trainer, is a 20% winner with first time starters (that is not accurate, just an example...but he is good with firsters), So if he has a horse with good workouts and odds are 3-1 or better, then that is a solid pick. Good stats like this are available in Today's Racing Digest, or Daily Racing Form - both accessible through the net.

So, Welcome and Good "Luck", because no matter what, we all need that!!

 

[ferdville]

I think that the advice you have received from people here has been sound. One problem though is that you can inundate yourself with so many figures that it becomes impossible to make a decision. This is why it is so important for you to cut your teeth in this game slowly. Be sure to explore all the angles and then decide what works best for you. I don't know how old you guys are, but let me tell you, this was a much simpler game back in the 60's and early 70's. Most of the information that is freely posted today in the Racing Form, The Racing Digest, or sites like Speed Figures was stuff that you had to figure yourself. Back then, if you figured your own track variants, speed figures, interior fractions, etc. - you had more knowledge than 98% of the bettors. Now, it is all available. Good because you no longer need to work 40 hours a week to keep up; bad because now everybody has the same info. Don't ignore the advice that Valuist and I have given you about being personally able to discern things from a horse's appearance. I first learned this while sitting with one of the clocker's during a Santa Anita meeting. There are horses coming and going all the time - there is a guy that is supposed to identify the horses as they hit the track, but that is no easy task. Yet these clockers actually knew the regular horses just by looking at them. This amazed me and that started me researching more about the actually way a horse looks. If you get a video or sit with a real horseman, it will blow your mind with what they say. And Valuist - you and me both - it took me forever to get even a simple handle on this. It isn't easy. But the video Valuist mentions is a good start.

 

[Valuist]

Vanvegas-

Regarding not posting on weekends, it is very difficult. For one, during college basketball season, I'm usually betting some of those. So much time is devoted to reading the Form and getting odds updates on the games, there's little time to post. I rarely bet horses online so I'm usually at the track. And a lot of the wagers I make are last minute decisions; I like to watch the post parade.