New Years Day

[Smitty]

happy new years everyone! If you followed my picks yesterday (and remembered it was opposite day), you had a perfect day! that's right! i lost every fucking bet yesterday. including all 3 games that came down to the wire. pretty impressive. the only bet i really regret was utah. i knew they didn't give a fuck about the alamo bowl, but i trusted whittingham to have them ready. there is only so much a coach can do, i suppose. well, on to 2020.

keep in mind that i handicapped and bet these games at the same time i worked on yesterday's games. so maybe fading this is a smart idea.

Outback Bowl

minnesota 1st H (+3.5) 2 units
minnesota (+7) 4 units
minnesota (ML) 2 units to win 4. purely an anti-auburn bet here. they won their "bowl game" when they beat alabama. hard to believe they are fired up to play the gophers in the outback bowl. my hope is that minnesota is able to jump out to a lead and then bo nix is going to turn the ball over a few times when he tries to do too much to rally the tigers. minnesota was 16th in the country with 14 INTs.

 

[theshiek]

Smitty,
Went 0-4 myself yesterday, but something has to give today since I like Auburn. At least 1 of us will cash.

Best of luck on your other plays today, LOL.

 

[Smitty]

Citrus Bowl

Citrus Bowl

michigan 1st H (+4.5) 2 units
michigan (+7.5) 4 units
michigan (ML) 2 units to win 4.7
over (58.5) 2 units. same exact thoughts as the first game. the last time alabama was in a bowl game that didn't impact the national championship, they lost to oklahoma in the 2013 sugar bowl. as a 17-point favorite. and who can forget the 2009 sugar bowl when they lost to utah?

granted, on new years day 2011, they destroyed michigan st 49-7 in the capital one bowl as... uh oh, a 7.5-point favorite. shit, that sounds familiar.

let's face it, the tide's season ended when tagovailoa's season ended. sure, michigan has a long history of sucking in big games, but i'm hoping they can take care of business against a crimson tide team that has no interest in playing this game.

 

[Smitty]

Smitty,
Went 0-4 myself yesterday, but something has to give today since I like Auburn. At least 1 of us will cash.

Best of luck on your other plays today, LOL.

ha! i like your chances! good luck, and happy new year.

 

[Smitty]

Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl

oregon 1st H (ML) 2 units to win 2.5
oregon (ML) 3 units to win 3.7. no, i don't think oregon is all that great. and i really haven't been all that impressed by herbert. but i think a couple factors are working in the ducks' favor.

1) motivation. sure, it's the rose bowl. but wisconsin may still be thinking about letting the big 10 championship slip from their grasp. oregon may be just a little more focused on this game.

2) it seems to me that great running backs are often bottled up in bowl games. and oregon only allowed 3.23 yards/carry this year, 13th in the country. IF oregon can get a lead, they may be able to seriously limit taylor's impact on this game. oh, and this is impressive... oregon allowed just 4 rushing tds all season. only georgia allowed fewer. AND THEY ONLY ALLOWED 1!! that is insane.

 

[Smitty]

Sugar Bowl

Sugar Bowl

baylor (ML) 2 units to win 3.6
under (41.5) 1 unit. went back and forth on this one. really hard to trust baylor because, well, they're not that good. and matt ruhle is a terrible game coach. i remember his clock management at temple and wondering if he learned from andy reid. but, again, it comes down to motivation. hugely disappointing year for georgia. they just couldn't get their offense going. so i HAVE to take the bears. i have no idea how they're going to move the ball tonight. they'll need a short field a few times.

the way i'm running right now... georgia wins 47-13.