NEWSLETTERS 2/21 - 2/28

[the duke]

WINNING POINTS

FRIDAY:

***BEST BET
Houston over *New Orleans by 6
The Rockets were red-hot entering the All-Star break winning 12 of their last 13.
Houston ranked second in defensive field goal percentage and fourth in scoring
defense. The Rockets have a strong enough zone defense to bother Chris Paul. Since
coming back from a knee injury, Tracy McGrady has consistently been playing at a
high level averaging 21 points and better than six assists and five rebounds per game.
New Orleans? defense had slipped a bit. The Hornets gave up 451 points in their last
four games before the All-Star break, an average of 112.7 points. HOUSTON 98-92.



***BEST BET
*Detroit over Milwaukee by 21
Cohesion and chemistry. These are two crucial areas the Bucks are deficient in. They
have Eastern Conference playoff talent, but the team isn?t responding anymore to
coach Larry Krystkowiak. The entered All-Star break mired in a 1-7 slump, while
showing no signs of any fourth-quarter toughness. Chauncey Billups should have no
problem breaking down the Bucks? passive defense. Detroit won its last 10 games
going into the break and the veteran Pistons should be well-rested and primed to continue
their momentum. They?ve already beaten Milwaukee twice in two games by a
combined 71 points. DETROIT 104-83.




***BEST BET
*Golden State over Atlanta by 20
After some early promise, the Hawks have begun their annual disappointing play.
They have been bad on the road failing to cover eight of their past 10 away contests
entering a five-game road swing following the All-Star break. This marks their third
game in four nights. The small, but athletic, Warriors match up well to the Hawks.
Atlanta doesn?t have the rebounders to slow down the Warriors? fast-break game or the
defenders to shut down their breakneck pace. GOLDEN STATE 121-101.



SATURDAY

***BEST BET
*Miami over Philadelphia by 8
Dwayne Wade and Shawn Marion give the Heat some added respectability. The 76ers
can?t match either of those two players. The All-Star break gives Pat Riley a desperate
chance to get his team regrouped. There?s a chance Miami could get back its best
rebounder, Udonis Haslem. We like the 76ers much more when in an underdog role.
MIAMI 98-90



SUNDAY

***BEST BET
Boston over *Portland by 13
Boston defeated Portland by 10 points at home during the middle of last month when
the Trail Blazers were playing much better. The Celtics won and covered an eight-point
spread despite missing point guard Rajon Rondo. The Trail Blazers have trouble handling
Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. The Celtics had covered 65 percent of their games
through the All-Star Game, while posting the league?s best mark. BOSTON 104-91.



***BEST BET
Sacramento over *Orlando by 5
The Kings may lack maturity, but they don?t lack for firepower with their main scorers
healthy. Their recent pattern has been play well against tougher teams, while laying
an egg against bad clubs. This month for example they?ve defeated the Hornets and
Jazz while covering versus the Warriors and Rockets. But they?ve also lost to the Sonics
and Grizzlies. The Magic came out of the break having lost three of their last four
home games. SACRAMENTO 113-108.




NCAA:

SATURDAY

***BEST BET
Michigan State* over Iowa by 24
Izzo stood around and watched his team lose at death-march tempo at Iowa, failing to
get out of the 30s. He has himself, the assistant coaches, and the kids to kick around
in advance of this re-hook, on his home floor, and if his Spartans with the 52.8%
Effective Field Goal percentage (2s and 3s) don?t seek to maximize the possession
count on their home floor against Iowa?s perimeter pass-happy long-distance shooters,
then he oughta give back his national championship, give Michigan back theirs, and
put himself into those practices with the helmets and shoulder pads. MICHIGAN
STATE, 75-51.


***BEST BET
DePaul over Seton Hall* by 9
Don?t go into a game against Jerry Wainwright with a sophomore guard as your sixth
man, and nothing but a bunch of forwards to send in there after him. That?s what
slumping Seton Hall?s Bobby Gonzalez is down to at the moment, now four games
into the season-ending injury to guard Paul Gause (2.8 steals per game). DePaul ain?t
much, but Wainwright committed to a faster tempo early in the season (they are at
69.5 vs. 63.1 last year) and is playing 10 kids at least 10 minutes per game. Eventually,
you run into a situation where the full speed mistakes you were making start disappearing
vs. a certain type of opponent. Seton Hall can?t afford to keep playing the way
they?ve been playing (72 possessions per game, top 25 in national pace), but if they do
anything differently, they won?t necessarily be doing it any better. Both need a win to
stay within the Big East Tournament net, but one side has more hands on deck to
make the haul. DEPAUL, 79-70



***BEST BET
Ohio* over George Mason by 14
Unless there are CAA referees on the floor, George Mason?s Will Thomas could finally
be ticketed for the foul trouble he eludes in conference play. Given that Ohio?s two
leading scorers are forwards, Thomas will have to play some defense. Or, not. NCWilmington,
with two double-digit scoring forwards, has beaten George Mason twice
this season, so there you go. OHIO, 77-63.

 

[the duke]

THE SPORTS REPORTER

THURSDAY

BEST BET
*DENVER over MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE by 14
Joe Scott?s Pioneers are back home, again, which should result in a sharply-improved performance
level for this hard-bitten, defensively-oriented outfit. After a decent stint at Air
Force, Scott didn?t work out so well when he tried to go home again (to Nassau Hall, my boy
. . . ), but his edgy style and this crop of players have got something going. MTS is a long
way from home, and headed the wrong way, as forwards Uriah Hethington and Josh Sain
both missed last Saturday?s game with the Hilltoppers with health/academic issues. DENVER,
71-57



SATURDAY

BEST BET
*KENTUCKY over ARKANSAS by 9
Given their somnambulant, slipshod start and the fact that there remains a clearcut statistical
gap between Kentucky and the conference?s top six, ?Cats essentially need to win the
SEC tournament to make the Dance, and Billy Gillispie needs to focus on the precise coaching
course which will lead him from Point A (today) to the neighborhood of the promised
land/Point B. But an explosion here could propel the ?Cats forward, in a big way. Meanwhile,
fatally-flawed Hogs are likely in like Flynn. Yes, there?s no justice ? but you knew that! KENTUCKY,
81-72.



MONDAY


BEST BET
*WISCONSIN MILWAUKEE over VALPARAISO by 13
There was a lot of bull talk going around about Valpo making a powerful splash in this, their
first go-round in the Horizon. But it seems that was largely . . . simply . . . bull. Crusaders
broke out of a five-game slide (including a home loss to Loyola Chicago and a 24-point road
loss to Illinois-Chicago) with a spanking of Youngstown State last Saturday. Obviously, that
proves little. Using a tight rotation brought on by attrition, UWM took Green Bay by 10, coming
off a three-game L streak, but two of those were away from home, and the third was
against Butler, so all?s forgiven. The dashing of high expectations suggests Valpo won?t fully
recover. Embrace the gutty home side. WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE, 73-60.





NBA:


FRIDAY

BEST BET
DENVER over *CHICAGO by 12
Tonight?s ESPN game features the Denver Nuggets traveling to Chicago after two full
days of rest after playing the Celtics on Tuesday. Allen Iverson had been speaking openly
about his shooting woes prior to the All Star break and should be back to his usual
scoring form after working on his shot over the past ten days. The Bulls have been completely
unable to regain their mojo of last year and simply do not have the firepower to
compete with Denver?s scoring ability, a problem compounded by injuries and lack of
practice and lineup continuity. DENVER 109-97


SATURDAY

BEST BET
*SAN ANTONIO over NEW ORLEANS by 15
The Spurs must remember their 24-point loss to the Hornets in late January ? after all,
it?s difficult to forget such losses, especially for a championship squad who had all their
players healthy for the game. Now it?s time for them to exact some revenge, and are in
great position to do so as they host a New Orleans team that played last night and could
be a little overconfident about the first result, which the Spurs no doubt have gone to
school on. SAN ANTONIO 96-79


MONDAY

BEST BET
DETROIT over *DENVER by 8
This could be extremely interesting if the Nuggets pull off the long rumored Ron Artest
trade, but regardless of whether or not that trade comes to fruition, the Nuggets won?t
be able to hang with the Pistons, whose cohesive team play can overcome any offensive
gameplan. If Artest has joined the ranks, the Nuggets will suffer from post-trade chemistry
problems. If he hasn?t, the Pistons will have one less obstacle to deal with. A loselose
situation, if you will. DETROIT 104-96

 

[the duke]

CTO


Friday,February 22

UTAH over *L.A. Clippers (NBA)...Utah has enjoyed one-sided victories in both meetings against the Clippers this season, trouncing L.A.
106-88 in Salt Lake City and 109-93 at Staples in consecutive meetings Jan. 18 & 21. Jazz used those wins as a springboard to 10-3 spread
run last 13 through Feb. 18, and Utah has covered 6 of last 7 on the road. Matt Harpring, Kyle Korver and Paul Millsap combined for 47 pts.
off the bench vs. the Clips Jan. 21, and Utah had 7 players in double figures in each of the first two meetings.
UTAH 107 - L.A. *Clippers 90 RATING - 10




Saturday,February 23

*LSU over Ole Miss...What a difference a few weeks can make! Not long ago, Ole Miss seemed cruising toward an NCAA berth, and things
were going so bad at LSU that HC John Brady was fired. But Rebs have been in freefall since, while Tigers have suddenly responded to
interim HC Butch Pierre, coming close to upsetting Tennessee and beating Florida thanks in large part to 6-10 frosh Anthony Randolph, who
is dominating proceedings in recent outings. Wheels have come off at Ole Miss, which hasn?t won on SEC road (0-5 SU), with production
of frosh PG Warren & C Curtis dipping alarmingly. *LSU 73 - Ole Miss 63 RATING - 10





*NC WILMINGTON over Vermont (Bracket Buster Game)...Wilmington (17-10 prior to a Feb. 20 game vs. Georgia State) is one of those teams
that can truly boost its postseason hopes with a Bracket Buster victory. Vermont (NIT LY; NCAAs 3 years ago) is a worthy enough foe,
but with some defensive shortcomings. So the Catamounts could be the perfect foil for the Seahawks, whose offense is now excellently
balanced (four DD scorers), with 6-10 sr. bruiser Kuljanin in the middle, clutch F Hendley on the opposite side, sr. Gs Fountain & T.J. Carter
outside, and 5-11 frosh marksman Tomko raising eyebrows with his deadly, confident shooting.
*NC WILMINGTON 86 - Vermont 62 RATING - 11




*NEW MEXICO STATE over Long Beach State (Bracket Buster Game)...With injuries and suspensions having depleted roster to the point that
Long Beach now reduced to Fresno State transfer G Morris (21.2 ppg; only DD scorer on team) and little else, can?t see limited 49ers staying
within earshot of potent NMSU bunch that should be well-rested (9 prep days!) for this Bracket Buster. Balance-wise, Aggies quite the
opposite of Beach, with six (!) scoring in DDs, and NMSU offense on fire in current 4-game win streak, scoring 89 ppg. Firepower, depth,
and homecourt edges signal NMSU blowout. *NEW MEXICO STATE 94 - Long Beach State 63 RATING - 10








Sunday,February 24

L.A. LAKERS over *Seattle (NBA)...Los Angeles has been an excellent play on the road this season, as its 8-1 spread mark on recent 9-
game road trip would attest. The re-tooled Lakers have covered 5 of 6 chances laying more than 6 points away from home this season.
Seattle?s retread HC P.J. Carlesimo has been underwhelming, to say the least, and ownership?s impending movement of the team out of
Seattle (?inevitable? according to NBA commissioner David Stern) has been an overriding distraction for the team. With L.A.?s Kobe Bryant
playing ?warrior? ball, Lakers will fight to the finish in the West. L.A. LAKERS 109 - *Seattle 92 RATING - 11




*AUBURN over Alabama (Day Game)...Disappointing Bama has clearly been unable to compensate for the preseason loss of injured star PG
Steele, especially on the SEC road, where the Tide is 0-5 SU. See no trend reversal vs. fired-up, over-achieving Auburn, eager to avenge
its embarrassing 20-pt. defeat in Tuscaloosa Jan. 26. Tigers? dependable 6-4 sr. G Tolbert (13 ppg) is especially excited after scoring only
7 points before fouling out of earlier meeting. It?s a bonus if Auburn?s 6-7 jr. F Barber (14 ppg, 7 rpg), who has returned to practice after
breaking his finger in late December, is able to give it a go.
*AUBURN 76 - Alabama 67 RATING - 10




MONDAY

*SAINT MARY?S over San Diego...It?s payback time for superior Saint Mary?s, which threw a shoe in its 63-55 first-meeting loss four weeks
ago at San Diego, recording its second-lowest scoring output TY. Don?t look for a repeat the second time vs. the Toreros, as the Gaels have
size and depth USD can?t match and are a near certainty to shoot better than the 39.6% they hit in the first match. This is the last home game
for Saint Mary?s, looking to guarantee itself a top two WCC finish and bye into conference tourney semis.
*SAINT MARY?S 81 - San Diego 54 RATING - 10



TUESDAY

*BRADLEY over Southern Illinois....CTO scouts report Bradley can?t wait (and neither can we) for this revenge game with rival SIU
following the Braves? sloppy (18 TOs) 77-64 setback at Carbondale Jan. 8, when prolific PG Ruffin was sidelined with a sports hernia.
Bradley, which has already avenged two losses when Ruffin (nation?s active career leader in assists!) was sidelined for a 7-game stretch
in late Dec.-early Jan., adds to the list vs. the weak-travelin? Salukis (2-10 SU, 3-9 vs. spread on road TY), who lack creative scorers,
especially in hostile surroundings, such as deafening Carver Arena. *BRADLEY 74 - Southern Illinois 63 RATING - 11



WED

ARKANSAS over *Alabama...Both teams have suffered from plenty of inconsistency TY. But the underachieving Crimson Tide have been
the worse offender of the two, going 3-6 as a home favorite due to a mixture of a key injury (G Steele), questionable shot selection, and
frequent sloppy defense. Arkansas, with a postseason run in mind, is ready to exploit matters. The Hogs have experienced frontliners in
quantity to battle Bama power guy Hendrix inside. And Gs Beverley & Ervin now giving SF Sonny Weems more scoring support. Tide
suffers again. ARKANSAS 76 - *Alabama 69 RATING - 10

 

[the duke]

POINTWISE


COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

KANSAS STATE over Texas (Mon) RATING: 1
ARIZONA over So California (Thurs) RATING: 1
WRIGHT STATE over Butler (Thurs) RATING: 2
DEPAUL over Seton Hall (Sat) RATING: 2
INDIANA over Northwestern (Sat) RATING: 3
NORTHWESTERN over Michigan (Tues) RATING: 3
DREXEL over James Madison (Wed) RATING: 4
LASALLE over Fordham (Wed) RATING: 4
WISC-MILWAUKEE over Valparaiso (Mon) RATING: 5
MEMPHIS over Tennessee (Sat) RATING: 5

 

[the duke]

THE SPORTS MEMO


DONNIE BLACK (2/23)
Iowa at Michigan State
Recommendation: Michigan State

Michigan State will undoubtedly be gunning for revenge this week as they return home for a two game stand. The road weary Spartans have lost three of four heading into the new week after
dropping an inexcusable game at short handed Penn State, falling short in a come back effort atPurdue,and getting blown out at Indiana over the weekend. Their first opportunity at redemption
comes midweek against Penn State, but the one I think the Spartans really want is this weekend against Iowa. Look for the Penn State game to serve as a tune up for the Hawkeyes, and
look for a blowout victory for team Izzo. You?ll recall the first meeting in Iowa City in mid January when Michigan State failed to score 20 points in either half, losing in perhaps the worst effort during coach Izzo?s tenure. Iowa limited MSU to 16-52
shooting from the floor, 3-12 from distance, while winning the turnover battle by 10 (18 to 8). The shell-shocked Spartans shot just four free throws and made just one compared to Iowa?s 16-of-29 effort, showing no aggressiveness whatsoever. Drew Neitzel was limited to just 22 points combined in the losses at Iowa, Penn State and Purdue but did show some life at Indianadropping 21. He has averaged 17 points per game over his lastfour home games and should find some operating room in thisrevenge spot. Also look for big days fromRaymar Morgan andKalin Lucas as the Spartans will push tempo and dictate pace.Lay what figures to be double digits as this projects as a rout



BRENT CROW (2/23)
Arkansas at Kentucky
Recommendation: Kentucky

The Kentucky Wildcats have become one of the better stories inthe SEC this year, rallying from an embarrassing start to becomeone of the top teams in the conference. Kentucky is 7-3 in leagueplay and should improve to 8-3 with a win over Georgia this weekto set up a battle with Arkansas on Saturday night. Not many peoplewould have expected the Wildcats to be in this position after
losing to the likes of Gardner Webb, UAB and San Diego at home,but Billy Gillispie has done a nice job keeping his players focusedafter the tough start. Kentucky has also gotten healthier, eventhough they still have some nagging injuries, at least their topfive players are on the court for most games now. The Cats area perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home in league play, and they facean Arkansas team that has struggled away from home. Arkansas
is just 2-3 on the road in the SEC, with their wins coming againstlowly LSU and Auburn. The Hogs have never really played totheir potential this season under first year coach John Pelphrey,who had five returning starters to work with. One key for Arkansas
has been the sophomore slump of guard Patrick Beverly.
He has not improved on his outstanding freshman season and
averages just 11 ppg on the road in SEC play. Kentucky matches
up well on the perimeter with Beverly and the Arkansas guards
and should keep this home SEC record perfect with a win today




TEDDY COVERS (2/23)
Colorado at Missouri
Recommendation: Colorado

Colorado is a bottom feeder in the Big 12, sitting in last place inthe conference with only three weeks remaining in the regularseason. But don?t confuse the Buffaloes with most bottom feeders around the nation ? this team hasn?t quit on their coach or heir season, showing dramatic signs of improvement in recentweeks. This should be no surprise to those who have followed thecareer of first year head coach Jeff Bzdelik, the coach who engineered
the amazing turnaround at Air Force earlier this decade.Bzdelik?s team has hung tough with some elite level squads inrecent weeks, including a tight two point loss as 17.5 point roadunderdogs at Texas, a one-point loss as ten point underdogs at
Oklahoma State and a pointspread cover in the game against top notch Kansas this past weekend. The Buffaloes have covered four
straight and eight of their last ten, but they?ve retained their pointspreadvalue, winning only two of those games in outright fashion.
Missouri, on the other hand, is struggling down the stretch.They?ve lost three of their last four at home in outright fashion,including an ugly loss as a favorite against another bottom feeder,Nebraska. In the first meeting between these two schools, Colorado
blew a 13-point lead in the final ten minutes of the game ina four point spread covering loss to the Tigers. No surprise hereif this game comes down to the wire as well ? the Tigers will behard pressed to win this game at all, let alone finding a way to
win this game by a big enough margin to cover this pointspread.


MARTY OTTO (2/23)
Arkansas at Kentucky
Recommendation: Kentucky

The Kentucky Wildcats were absolutely embarrassed by Vanderbilttwo weeks ago in a 93-52 beat-down in Nashville. It was the type of
result maybe some had come to expect from a team that earlier inthe year lost to Gardner Webb. But Billy Gillispie?s team has come a long way to post a modest 13-10 overall record with a solid 7-3 mark
in SEC play. The Wildcats showed some real grit in coming back to beat LSU over the weekend and have a winnable game midweek against Georgia at home before welcoming Arkansas. While many analysts had counted UK out of the race for the big dance, with the third best overall record in the SEC regardless of division, and with a schedule the could potentially produce a 5-1 finish to the season,
I think they are still very much alive. Think about it, UK could finish with 18 wins and a conference mark of 12-4, no committee member would deny that resume. So this game becomes a must win. I like the Cats at home against an Arkansas team that is 1-5 ATS overall away from home and has their only conference road wins over bottom feeders Auburn and LSU. A pressing, perimeter oriented team like
the Razorbacks should be a nice matchup for UK as they can stick the likes of Joe Crawford, Ramel Bradley and the long G/F Perry Stevenson on shooters while allowing Patrick Patterson to control
the boards inside. I?ll call for Kentucky to push their record to 6-0 SU and ATS at home in SEC by the time Saturday is over. Take UK


ROB VENO (2/23)
New Orleans at San Antonio
Recommendation: San Antonio

Spurs showed solid signs of adjusting to life without star point guard Tony Parker by closing out their pre-all star break east coast road swing with back-to-back wins over Cleveland and Toronto. Overall, San Antonio went 5-1 straight and 4-2 against the spread on the trip and expect that run to carry over and motivate the defending champs
right out of the post all-star gate. The Spurs? soft schedule to open this week (home vs. Charlotte and at Minnesota) figures to add a pair
of wins to their current streak and allow them to be fresh for this ultimate revenge spot. San Antonio was embarrassed right here on their
home floor 102-78 by this New Orleans squad less than a month ago so be assured that this is a contest the Spurs have circled. Combine
that motive with the 10-team fight for survival that the NBA western conference playoffs have become and you have the ingredients for the fifth place Spurs to give their ?A? effort here. Unlike San Antonio?s soft scheduling prior to this contest, New Orleans is in their third game in four nights with Dallas and Houston being the previous two opponents. With games now likely to take on much larger meaning and sense of urgency, look for the Hornets to enter this one a bit fatigued after
tangling with the other strong Texas contingents. Anticipate Spurs forward tandem of Tim Duncan and Bruce Bowen to atone for 54-17 beating they were handed by Hornets counterparts David West and Peja Stojakovic while defensive-minded point guard Jacque Vaughn hounds Chris Paul all night. San Antonio retaliates and responds to the January 26th fiasco by posting a solid revenge win and cover.



TIM TRUSHEL (2/23)
Philadelphia at Miami
Recommendation: Over

The 76ers will be playing in a tough back-to-back situation as they face Orlando and Miami on consecutive nights. With the addition of Shawn Marion to the line-up, Pat Riley has been quoted
as saying that he?d like to see the Heat play a more up-tempo style. True to form, the Heat have been a little more offensive oriented since the trade eclipsing the 92 mark in all three games while averaging 99.7 points per game. The conversion is still a work in progress but it did lead to a little bit more up-tempo offense resulting in the Heat, the NBA?s lowest scoring team, to score 100 or more points for the first time in 21 games. With the
break we?d expect the Heat to devote a lot of practice time into the offense with just one game scheduled before this Saturday game. Meanwhile Philadelphia will be playing the second of a back-to-back games and in its last five games in this situation they have gone over the total in all five while averaging 208 total
points. On its own, Philadelphia has averaged 101 points scored in its last seven in this situation of no rest. In the first two meetings this season the Sixers had the situational advantage as they
caught Miami on back-to-backs. Revenge will be sweet for the Heat as they push the tempo and send this one over the total



JARED KLEIN (2/23)
Dallas at Nashville
Recommendation: Nashville

The Nashville Predators seemed to have rebounded off their worst game of the season last Thursday night against the Chicago
Blackhawks. The Predators could do nothing right on that night as they lost 6-1. ?Things had been going pretty well for us,? Predators forward Jason Arnott was quoted as saying. ?This was one bad game. Usually we are able to recover, but we came out flat. We have to get back to the basics. We can?t dwell on this game.? Both the players and coaches alike were not happy and the Predators were able to rebound after that rough game
with a huge home win over the St. Louis Blues. On Saturday, the Predators have solid value going against the Dallas Stars who will be playing in the second half of back-to-back games and their third game in four nights. Very quietly Nashville is moving up the standings in the Western Conference and they also have the second-best home record in the NHL at 19-12. The
Predators will also get a big boost from Jordin Tootoo, who is
expected to return to the lineup this week. Totoo is a high energy player that led the team in penalty minutes before suffering
a hip flexor. We?ve seen teams be able to take advantage of opponents that are playing in back-to-back games all season
long and I expect Nashville to do the same thing Saturday in front of a sold out Sommet Center. Take Nashville this weekend.