WINNINGPOINTS NEWSLETTER
SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS
BEST BETS
**** Tampa Bay over *Carolina by 17
*** Dallas over Buffalo by 18
RECOMMENDATIONS
Minnesota over *San Diego by 15
Chicago over *Detroit by 9
SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS
BEST BETS
**** PURDUE* over IOWA by 21
*** RICE* over TULSA by 14
RECOMMENDATIONS
Auburn* over Mississippi by 18
Ball State over Western Michigan* by 11
Nevada* over Fresno State by 14
Rutgers over Connecticut* by 4
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF BEST BET SELECTIONS
****BEST BET
Tampa Bay over *Carolina by 17
The defending Super Bowl champion Bucs have a knack for rising to the occasion, while the Panthers? 6-2 record is deceiving. The Panthers already have tied an NFL mark by winning three games in overtime. Besides edging the Colts in overtime, the Panthers? only other victory against an above .500 team was against the Bucs. That occurred back in Week 2 in a bitterly contested game the Panthers won, 12-9, in of course overtime. There were close to 300 yards in penalties. The Bucs out- gained Carolina, 397-258 and led in first downs, 25-14. They held Carolina QB Jake Delhomme to less than 100 yards passing. The Bucs dominated and should have won, but were hurt by the Panthers blocking several kicks. The Bucs have been pointing to this rematch ever since. The Bucs are especially angry blowing a game at home to New Orleans last week by committing six turnovers. Playing on the road has been a Tampa Bay strength under Jon Gruden. The Bucs are 11-4 SU away from home. The Bucs have won seven of their past eight road games, outscoring their foes, 203-98, in these games. The Bucs hold a huge edge in the passing game. Brad Johnson has thrown 38 TD passes and just 14 interceptions the last two years. The Bucs have done a good job protecting the immobile Johnson. He?s been sacked 10 times this year. The Bucs should get healthier on defense with safety John Lynch (check status) possibly returning. The Panthers rely on RB Stephen Davis, not Delhomme. Davis rushed for 142 yards in the team?s first meeting. The Bucs have gone to more of a gap control type of defense. They held the Cowboys to just 60 yards on the ground, and kept Deuce McAllister from scoring last week. Monte Kiffin is one of the top defensive coordinators. He?ll find a way to slow up Davis. Without Davis producing a big game, the Panthers are in trouble. TAMPA BAY 24-7.
***BEST BET
*Dallas over Buffalo by 18
The last time we saw the Bills they were proving to America just how strong Kansas City is and how overrated they are. Simply put, the Bills are not a good team. The Bills are 4-4, but they have not looked good during five of their last six games. Their minus 9 turnover ratio was the worst in the AFC through eight weeks. Buffalo has looked especially bad away from Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills have dropped seven of their last eight road contests. They?ve been outscored, 187-99, in these games. In four of these road defeats, the Bills offense failed to produce a touchdown. Buffalo is on pace to set a team record for fewest rushing yards in a 16-game season. The Bills were ranked last in the NFL in rushing yards at the halfway point. So much for Buffalo?s commitment to become better balanced. The problem the Bills have on the road is they can?t count on QB Drew Bledsoe. He?s thrown five TD passes, been intercepted 15 times and sacked 26 times in his road performances for Buffalo. Cowboys coach Bill Parcells is very familiar with Bledsoe, having coached him at New England. Parcells knows how to get inside Bledsoe?s head, and he loves to match up against one-dimensional offenses. So look for Parcells to have the right defenses set up against Bledsoe. The Cowboys have allowed a touchdown or less against three opponents, and 13 of Tampa Bay?s 16 points against Dallas two weeks ago were either set up by interceptions or penalties. Buffalo had just 19 takeaways in 2002, last in the NFL. Despite adding some marquee defensive names like LB Takeo Spikes and safety Lawyer Milloy, the Bills haven?t improved in this key area. They have just 10 takeaways and only 13 sacks. Parcells has shored up Dallas? passing attack. Already three Dallas wideouts have more than 300 receiving yards. The coaching edge is huge, too, between Parcells and overmatched Gregg Williams. DALLAS 21-3.
****BEST BET
PURDUE* over IOWA by 21
Joe Tiller?s Boilermakers showed the kind of pride and character that a quality veteran team should possess in that easy romp vs. Northwestern, with no hangover from their loss to Michigan the previous Saturday, and also putting the Rose Bowl firmly within their grasp. That would be a fitting climax to the season for a team that deserved a much better fate LY, and there will be absolutely no problem for them bring their ?A? game this week. It was not many months ago that the Hawkeyes were in a BCS bowl while the Boilermakers were relegated to El Paso, despite the fact that Purdue may have been the better team LY. They won an overwhelming percentage of the snaps when these two met head-to-head in Iowa city, leading 30-14 in first downs and 507-384 in total offense. But the special teams play by Iowa turned the game in a major way, with TD?s being scored on a blocked punt and a blocked field goal. The Hawkeyes then got over the hump on a late 95 yard TD pass. This time we expect a similar Purdue dominance on a snap by snap basis, and if Tiller?s special teams can play a clean game this one can be rather easy. The limited Hawkeye skill corps has only had to play from behind twice on the road all season, and could produce next to nothing in losses at Michigan State and Ohio State (only 20 points, while turning it over seven times). Now they face a defense that can cover their limited playbook, creating great field position for their own offensive unit. PURDUE 31-10.
***BEST BET
RICE* over TULSA by 14
While speed and the passing game are bigger and bigger parts of the college football maps these days, when we get to the month of November there are still some loyal standby?s that we can work with, like a good old fashioned matchup of a surging ground attack against a tiring defense that will have trouble standing its ground in the trenches for 60 minutes. And that is exactly what we have here, nearly 12 months to the day that the identical teams matched up in a game that was also at the top of these pages. In that one the Owls were -7 on the road and rolled to a 33-6 lead in the fourth quarter, before finally getting a 33-18 margin. They pounded away at the Golden Hurricanes to the tune of 427 rushing yards, and now that Kyle Herm is healthy again the Rice option is clicking at one of its highest levels in recent years ? 80 points and 771 rushing yards in that near-miss at Fresno State and upset of Nevada the past two weeks. And while Tulsa is among the nation?s most improved teams in Steve Kragthorpe?s first season, that traditional softness against the run that has plagued the program for many years is something that has not been corrected. The key from a value standpoint is that every bit of the Tulsa resurgence is reflected in this line, which also allows us a special category in which to use Ken Hatfied ? how about a 13-1 ATS run in his last 14 games as an underdog in this stadium? This time he does not just get the cover, but the outright win. RICE 37-23.
SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS
BEST BETS
**** Tampa Bay over *Carolina by 17
*** Dallas over Buffalo by 18
RECOMMENDATIONS
Minnesota over *San Diego by 15
Chicago over *Detroit by 9
SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS
BEST BETS
**** PURDUE* over IOWA by 21
*** RICE* over TULSA by 14
RECOMMENDATIONS
Auburn* over Mississippi by 18
Ball State over Western Michigan* by 11
Nevada* over Fresno State by 14
Rutgers over Connecticut* by 4
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF BEST BET SELECTIONS
****BEST BET
Tampa Bay over *Carolina by 17
The defending Super Bowl champion Bucs have a knack for rising to the occasion, while the Panthers? 6-2 record is deceiving. The Panthers already have tied an NFL mark by winning three games in overtime. Besides edging the Colts in overtime, the Panthers? only other victory against an above .500 team was against the Bucs. That occurred back in Week 2 in a bitterly contested game the Panthers won, 12-9, in of course overtime. There were close to 300 yards in penalties. The Bucs out- gained Carolina, 397-258 and led in first downs, 25-14. They held Carolina QB Jake Delhomme to less than 100 yards passing. The Bucs dominated and should have won, but were hurt by the Panthers blocking several kicks. The Bucs have been pointing to this rematch ever since. The Bucs are especially angry blowing a game at home to New Orleans last week by committing six turnovers. Playing on the road has been a Tampa Bay strength under Jon Gruden. The Bucs are 11-4 SU away from home. The Bucs have won seven of their past eight road games, outscoring their foes, 203-98, in these games. The Bucs hold a huge edge in the passing game. Brad Johnson has thrown 38 TD passes and just 14 interceptions the last two years. The Bucs have done a good job protecting the immobile Johnson. He?s been sacked 10 times this year. The Bucs should get healthier on defense with safety John Lynch (check status) possibly returning. The Panthers rely on RB Stephen Davis, not Delhomme. Davis rushed for 142 yards in the team?s first meeting. The Bucs have gone to more of a gap control type of defense. They held the Cowboys to just 60 yards on the ground, and kept Deuce McAllister from scoring last week. Monte Kiffin is one of the top defensive coordinators. He?ll find a way to slow up Davis. Without Davis producing a big game, the Panthers are in trouble. TAMPA BAY 24-7.
***BEST BET
*Dallas over Buffalo by 18
The last time we saw the Bills they were proving to America just how strong Kansas City is and how overrated they are. Simply put, the Bills are not a good team. The Bills are 4-4, but they have not looked good during five of their last six games. Their minus 9 turnover ratio was the worst in the AFC through eight weeks. Buffalo has looked especially bad away from Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills have dropped seven of their last eight road contests. They?ve been outscored, 187-99, in these games. In four of these road defeats, the Bills offense failed to produce a touchdown. Buffalo is on pace to set a team record for fewest rushing yards in a 16-game season. The Bills were ranked last in the NFL in rushing yards at the halfway point. So much for Buffalo?s commitment to become better balanced. The problem the Bills have on the road is they can?t count on QB Drew Bledsoe. He?s thrown five TD passes, been intercepted 15 times and sacked 26 times in his road performances for Buffalo. Cowboys coach Bill Parcells is very familiar with Bledsoe, having coached him at New England. Parcells knows how to get inside Bledsoe?s head, and he loves to match up against one-dimensional offenses. So look for Parcells to have the right defenses set up against Bledsoe. The Cowboys have allowed a touchdown or less against three opponents, and 13 of Tampa Bay?s 16 points against Dallas two weeks ago were either set up by interceptions or penalties. Buffalo had just 19 takeaways in 2002, last in the NFL. Despite adding some marquee defensive names like LB Takeo Spikes and safety Lawyer Milloy, the Bills haven?t improved in this key area. They have just 10 takeaways and only 13 sacks. Parcells has shored up Dallas? passing attack. Already three Dallas wideouts have more than 300 receiving yards. The coaching edge is huge, too, between Parcells and overmatched Gregg Williams. DALLAS 21-3.
****BEST BET
PURDUE* over IOWA by 21
Joe Tiller?s Boilermakers showed the kind of pride and character that a quality veteran team should possess in that easy romp vs. Northwestern, with no hangover from their loss to Michigan the previous Saturday, and also putting the Rose Bowl firmly within their grasp. That would be a fitting climax to the season for a team that deserved a much better fate LY, and there will be absolutely no problem for them bring their ?A? game this week. It was not many months ago that the Hawkeyes were in a BCS bowl while the Boilermakers were relegated to El Paso, despite the fact that Purdue may have been the better team LY. They won an overwhelming percentage of the snaps when these two met head-to-head in Iowa city, leading 30-14 in first downs and 507-384 in total offense. But the special teams play by Iowa turned the game in a major way, with TD?s being scored on a blocked punt and a blocked field goal. The Hawkeyes then got over the hump on a late 95 yard TD pass. This time we expect a similar Purdue dominance on a snap by snap basis, and if Tiller?s special teams can play a clean game this one can be rather easy. The limited Hawkeye skill corps has only had to play from behind twice on the road all season, and could produce next to nothing in losses at Michigan State and Ohio State (only 20 points, while turning it over seven times). Now they face a defense that can cover their limited playbook, creating great field position for their own offensive unit. PURDUE 31-10.
***BEST BET
RICE* over TULSA by 14
While speed and the passing game are bigger and bigger parts of the college football maps these days, when we get to the month of November there are still some loyal standby?s that we can work with, like a good old fashioned matchup of a surging ground attack against a tiring defense that will have trouble standing its ground in the trenches for 60 minutes. And that is exactly what we have here, nearly 12 months to the day that the identical teams matched up in a game that was also at the top of these pages. In that one the Owls were -7 on the road and rolled to a 33-6 lead in the fourth quarter, before finally getting a 33-18 margin. They pounded away at the Golden Hurricanes to the tune of 427 rushing yards, and now that Kyle Herm is healthy again the Rice option is clicking at one of its highest levels in recent years ? 80 points and 771 rushing yards in that near-miss at Fresno State and upset of Nevada the past two weeks. And while Tulsa is among the nation?s most improved teams in Steve Kragthorpe?s first season, that traditional softness against the run that has plagued the program for many years is something that has not been corrected. The key from a value standpoint is that every bit of the Tulsa resurgence is reflected in this line, which also allows us a special category in which to use Ken Hatfied ? how about a 13-1 ATS run in his last 14 games as an underdog in this stadium? This time he does not just get the cover, but the outright win. RICE 37-23.
