2008 Overall Record 1W-0L +$5,000
Hi everyone,
I locked into my 2nd play of 2008 and this is not the good old "homer" play in effect here. Yes, I am a big Packer fan. Yes, I'll be at Lambeau freezing my butt off as usual. I have no problem wagering for or against Green Bay. Still alot of -7 out there and seeing now alot of -7.5. However, I have decided to lay the juice and take the Green Bay moneyline. If GB wins by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 i want to still cash the play. I seldom play a favorite moneyline, but this is one of those times I feel it's the best way to go and a high probability of cashing.
About 3 weeks before the season ended as I was analyzing all the possible scenarios and playoff teams I was trying to look at what team I felt Green Bay would have the best chance of beating. 3 weeks before end of regular season I concluded that the NY Giants were the team I'd like to see Green Bay face. They match up very well against NY.
So fast forward to the big Championship game. Breaking it down I see the following:
1) QB comparison - edge GB - give me Favre over Manning all day - Manning has played well last few weeks - it ends tomorrow
2) Home vs. Away - GB at home again - what a big advantage this is being at home w/ the Lambeau fans. I can't emphasize how much this is an edge. Also history has shown that when you have a team on an "AWAY ROLL" like NY is doing, that they fold before making it to the SB. Look at last 2 weeks - at Tampa Bay, then at Dallas. Also the last regular season game - home vs. Patriots - but a hard fought matchup. Now fast forward to tomorrow - 4th extremely tough game in a row - 3rd road game in a row. It's hard to win on the road, very tough to win back to back on road - but 3 in a row on road - especially against probably the 3 best teams the NFC had to offer - wow that's a very tough task.
3) Passing game if it comes down to it - who do you have more faith in? Favre spreading out Driver, Jennings, Robinson, Jones, Martin - along w/ TE Lee options. Or would you take Eli - w/ a banged up all season long Plaxico who is still hurting, a rejuvinated Amani Toomer (but seriously who the heck is scared of Amani Toomer?) - and abscense of TE Shockey. If GB falls behind i think they can play catchup (as they showed vs. Seattle). If NY falls behind, i don't think they can catch up.
4) Running game - seriously anyone who is doubting Ryan Grant needs help - he's simply running better than any back in the league. The Packer o-line has it going and I will give the Giants credit for having a tremendous D-line. This really i think will be key - GB oline vs. Giants Dline - and GB oline matches up well. For NY running game I've seen this type of game so many times in my life. They will be counting on Jacobs/Bradshaw to carry this team on Sunday. Everyone knows that. You can bet Jacobs will not be stopped every play, but will be slowed. Edge - Packers - Grants breakaway speed simply gives them the edge in this one - Jacobs will get his - he'll turn some 2 yard gains into 7. But GB's goal will be to shut down the run - and when they do it - they will force Eli to beat them through the air.
5) Secondary comparison - no comparison - big Edge Green Bay - we all know NY is very banged up in the secondary. Also, Woodson/Harris - those 2 should handle Toomer/Burress. Once again i think pressure is more on Eli here. Favre can carve up that secondary, not so sure Eli can
6) Regular season - I know - you might say throw out the regular season - i don't think we should - GB went in and handled the Giants with ease - the Giants were very healthy as well - and Pack had no established running game...fast forward to tomorrow - the Packer team you see tomorrow is playing with a lot of confidence, is healthier than pretty much all year - and have established one of the best ground games in football. Favre playing more confident than ever - add Robinson, an improved Ruvelle Martin - improved Donald Lee - and Pack just has played better as season has gone on. NY Giants have played very well - and on road 9-1 - very impressive. But 3rd in a row away from home - wow just a tough task
When it comes down to it just ask yourself when you consider every aspect of the game who should be the team that wins at the end of the day? My answer is the Green Bay Packers. I'm not saying that as a fan, I'm saying that as someone who has done his research and hard work looking at this game from a non-biased persepctive, and the solution comes up as take the Packers moneyline. I know some will say "well if you are so confident, then just lay the points" - thing is i hate laying 7 or more in the playoffs. If the NY Giants win the game, my hats off to them - this means they will have overcome extemely tough odds & i'll be first to congratulate the Giants backers. I just feel more comfortable laying the monyline in this one. Packers win, I win, they lose, I lose.
I couldn't be happier right now with how the playoffs have gone. The one team I wanted GB to face was the NY Giants because I thought we'd beat them easier than any other NFC playoff team. Now I get to see if they can or not. I'm being very selective on my plays in 2008. I'm up $5,000 for the year as I hit Pitt in round 1 (they lost, but covered)...
I layed $3,000 on the Pack -300 moneyline - to win $1,000. I feel the Pack is the right side. I don't feel like dealing with a spread tomorrow. I do think it is interesting that the line has crept up to -7.5 in alot of places. To me this looks tempting to take NY Giants +7.5 - which means the Pack probably wins and covers this spread. I mean why move the number off of 7 for this one?
I am looking forward to going to the game, as there is nothing like big time playoff football - especially championship games.
I think everything catches up to NY tomorrow. They will find out why Green Bay is the best team in the NFC, and the one team that could give New England a run at a defeat.
Good luck with whatever you play. Go PACK Go!
THE PLAY
Green Bay Packers -300 moneyline
Risking $3,000 to win $1,000
Hi everyone,
I locked into my 2nd play of 2008 and this is not the good old "homer" play in effect here. Yes, I am a big Packer fan. Yes, I'll be at Lambeau freezing my butt off as usual. I have no problem wagering for or against Green Bay. Still alot of -7 out there and seeing now alot of -7.5. However, I have decided to lay the juice and take the Green Bay moneyline. If GB wins by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 i want to still cash the play. I seldom play a favorite moneyline, but this is one of those times I feel it's the best way to go and a high probability of cashing.
About 3 weeks before the season ended as I was analyzing all the possible scenarios and playoff teams I was trying to look at what team I felt Green Bay would have the best chance of beating. 3 weeks before end of regular season I concluded that the NY Giants were the team I'd like to see Green Bay face. They match up very well against NY.
So fast forward to the big Championship game. Breaking it down I see the following:
1) QB comparison - edge GB - give me Favre over Manning all day - Manning has played well last few weeks - it ends tomorrow
2) Home vs. Away - GB at home again - what a big advantage this is being at home w/ the Lambeau fans. I can't emphasize how much this is an edge. Also history has shown that when you have a team on an "AWAY ROLL" like NY is doing, that they fold before making it to the SB. Look at last 2 weeks - at Tampa Bay, then at Dallas. Also the last regular season game - home vs. Patriots - but a hard fought matchup. Now fast forward to tomorrow - 4th extremely tough game in a row - 3rd road game in a row. It's hard to win on the road, very tough to win back to back on road - but 3 in a row on road - especially against probably the 3 best teams the NFC had to offer - wow that's a very tough task.
3) Passing game if it comes down to it - who do you have more faith in? Favre spreading out Driver, Jennings, Robinson, Jones, Martin - along w/ TE Lee options. Or would you take Eli - w/ a banged up all season long Plaxico who is still hurting, a rejuvinated Amani Toomer (but seriously who the heck is scared of Amani Toomer?) - and abscense of TE Shockey. If GB falls behind i think they can play catchup (as they showed vs. Seattle). If NY falls behind, i don't think they can catch up.
4) Running game - seriously anyone who is doubting Ryan Grant needs help - he's simply running better than any back in the league. The Packer o-line has it going and I will give the Giants credit for having a tremendous D-line. This really i think will be key - GB oline vs. Giants Dline - and GB oline matches up well. For NY running game I've seen this type of game so many times in my life. They will be counting on Jacobs/Bradshaw to carry this team on Sunday. Everyone knows that. You can bet Jacobs will not be stopped every play, but will be slowed. Edge - Packers - Grants breakaway speed simply gives them the edge in this one - Jacobs will get his - he'll turn some 2 yard gains into 7. But GB's goal will be to shut down the run - and when they do it - they will force Eli to beat them through the air.
5) Secondary comparison - no comparison - big Edge Green Bay - we all know NY is very banged up in the secondary. Also, Woodson/Harris - those 2 should handle Toomer/Burress. Once again i think pressure is more on Eli here. Favre can carve up that secondary, not so sure Eli can
6) Regular season - I know - you might say throw out the regular season - i don't think we should - GB went in and handled the Giants with ease - the Giants were very healthy as well - and Pack had no established running game...fast forward to tomorrow - the Packer team you see tomorrow is playing with a lot of confidence, is healthier than pretty much all year - and have established one of the best ground games in football. Favre playing more confident than ever - add Robinson, an improved Ruvelle Martin - improved Donald Lee - and Pack just has played better as season has gone on. NY Giants have played very well - and on road 9-1 - very impressive. But 3rd in a row away from home - wow just a tough task
When it comes down to it just ask yourself when you consider every aspect of the game who should be the team that wins at the end of the day? My answer is the Green Bay Packers. I'm not saying that as a fan, I'm saying that as someone who has done his research and hard work looking at this game from a non-biased persepctive, and the solution comes up as take the Packers moneyline. I know some will say "well if you are so confident, then just lay the points" - thing is i hate laying 7 or more in the playoffs. If the NY Giants win the game, my hats off to them - this means they will have overcome extemely tough odds & i'll be first to congratulate the Giants backers. I just feel more comfortable laying the monyline in this one. Packers win, I win, they lose, I lose.
I couldn't be happier right now with how the playoffs have gone. The one team I wanted GB to face was the NY Giants because I thought we'd beat them easier than any other NFC playoff team. Now I get to see if they can or not. I'm being very selective on my plays in 2008. I'm up $5,000 for the year as I hit Pitt in round 1 (they lost, but covered)...
I layed $3,000 on the Pack -300 moneyline - to win $1,000. I feel the Pack is the right side. I don't feel like dealing with a spread tomorrow. I do think it is interesting that the line has crept up to -7.5 in alot of places. To me this looks tempting to take NY Giants +7.5 - which means the Pack probably wins and covers this spread. I mean why move the number off of 7 for this one?
I am looking forward to going to the game, as there is nothing like big time playoff football - especially championship games.
I think everything catches up to NY tomorrow. They will find out why Green Bay is the best team in the NFC, and the one team that could give New England a run at a defeat.
Good luck with whatever you play. Go PACK Go!
THE PLAY
Green Bay Packers -300 moneyline
Risking $3,000 to win $1,000
