NFC North Keys

bleedingpurple

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Weather is cold here and I have the football bug, if I didn't have a calendar I would swear it was Fall (football season.)

The NFC North is a division up for grabs IMO. I could see all teams doing very well or being mediocre. The division really had an easy schedule last year thus the reason for one team to be 10 - 6 and out of the playoffs. The schedule appears to be much more difficult this year. (On Paper)


Chicago Bears - After a great start last year, they found themselves looking outside the playoff bubble. Cutler was up and down, the defense which carried the team with turnovers and scores looked old and slow by season's end. Lovie Smith was a casualty and a new regime begins.

Keys

Improved offensive line play. Keeping Cutler upright has been a need for past few seasons. They did add linemen and they did improve their protection by season's end.

Consistent QB play. Cutler has tons of talent and he knows it. He tends to be over confident with his ability and forces the ball causing way too many turnovers. I don't think Mike Tice's offensive game plan helped him much either. Low percentage pass plays.

Aging Defense. Urlacher is gone and their best defensive back Tillman is aging, does he have anything left in the tank?

New Coach. Marc Trestman has been in the league for many many years and he is from Minnesota.

Early Prediction: Finding 10 wins again is going to be very very difficult. They need to find a way to beat Green Bay at least once. It may take time for the team to adjust to the new coaching staff. The Bears defense help win a bunch of games last year with pick 6's but looked old giving up tons of rushing yards. I think the Bears fall somewhere below .500 this year.

Detroit Lions - Very disappointing season for the Motor City Kitties last year. Even though the running game improved some, Stafford did not have the same magic, turnovers did them in, and they were forced in many 3rd and longs. The offensive line did not protect well and the defense especially the back 7 were inept. Special teams was a joke giving up easy scores and great field position.

Keys - It starts with the defense. They have a very talented defensive line, adding Ansah at end could be deadly but for the most part one would expect the line to produce more sacks and pressures than it generates. The back 7 definitely need to improve.

Offensive Line - Pretty obvious, pass protection is the key, Stafford has a chance to be a big stud again.

Matt Stafford- Battled a thumb injury last year and missed open receivers. Looked like he had a case of happy feet at times do to taking some punishing hits. The addition to Reggie Bush should give him a lot more dump off opportunities with Mega Tron taking double coverage.

Early Prediction: This team scares the hell out of ya, cause they have big play ability on both sides of the ball. If Stafford can regain 2011 Magic, limits turnovers, and defense improves, then the sky could be the limit for this team. Also special teams can only improve. I see this team above .500 and fighting for the top of division.

Green Bay Packers - Had a rough early stretch after losing to the SeaHags on a terrible blown call and blowing a nice lead to the Colts but rebounded nicely pulling off a string of wins behind the arm of Mr. Rodgers, ultimately losing to the Niners in second round of playoffs.

Keys: Offensive line play, no quarterback has taken more pounding than Aaron Rodgers over the past 3 years. Green Bay was limited in a couple games last year, against Seattle and Giants (both losses) having to take 3 step drops cause the pressure was too much.

Injury Bug: The past 3 years have been catastrophic injury wise, losing many key players with season ending injuries.

Defense: They show brilliance against weak teams but when they play teams who are multiple threat they show tons of weakness especially at the linebacker position, getting Bishop back at LB is going to be a major key and Green Bay needs the first rounder Perry to be healthy and improved from last season.

Running Game: Green Bay's running game showed signs of improvement, but was that because team's let them run due to Rodgers.

Early Prediction: Of coarse Green Bay will be fighting for the top and are pre- season favorites to win the division again, with key additions in running game and getting players back, this team could find it's way to the Bowl. Although it seem like more NFL teams did more to improve this off season a 9 or 10 win season seems more likely.

Minnesota Vikings: A pleasant surprise with some ups and downs last season. They started out Hot then had a stretch of looking like the 3 - 13 team they were the year before then finding themselves to finish with 4 wins making the playoffs, much behind the legs of AP.
Even though the offensive line and young secondary has shown some improvement, this team has many question marks.

Keys : Consistent QB play from Ponder or Cassle is #1 priority, adding receivers should help and if they want to become a top notch NFC team, they need to become a double threat offensively. Aging defensive line is another concern, Allen seemed to lose a step from the previous season and is recovering from rotator cuff surgery and knee scoping. Kevin Williams also has lost a step and could not find a consistent counter part at tackle. Linebacking core has many questions and they are moving Arron Henderson to the middle.

Early Prediction: Another tough team to gauge, are they that good? Were they a product of a light schedule? Last year they were penalized very little and had tremendous special teams, yet they seem to have enough talent and added talent to be fighting for top of NFC north. Also, can't expect Super Man to have the same kind of year he had last year. I predict them to be fighting with the Pack and Detroit for top spot.

Biggest keys for division will be the health of the Green Bay Packers, Matt Stafford regaining 2011 magic, Bears defensive situation, and Vikings establishing consistent QB play. The Schedule looks much more difficult on paper this year and I do not expect any team to finish above 10 wins. Detroit and Minnesota at 5 - 1 odds for division look tempting.

Right now predicting Lions and Vikings OVER season total predictions and Green Bay / Bears UNDER
 

hedgehog

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nice writeup BP are you going to do each division? :shrug: You should write for your local paper

I can't wait for football season, its boring around here these days. baseball is ok and I do not watch NBA til the finals and I missed the whole game last night
 

gjn23

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queens realize they have ponder as qb and regress back to last place
det isn't much better and 2011 season looks like the fluke
bears slightly behind pack as defense is actually more athletic and offense improves and is balanced in passing game
pack win division with 10-11 wins....and lose at home in round 1
 

bleedingpurple

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queens realize they have ponder as qb and regress back to last place
det isn't much better and 2011 season looks like the fluke
bears slightly behind pack as defense is actually more athletic and offense improves and is balanced in passing game
pack win division with 10-11 wins....and lose at home in round 1

To each is own but I think the Bears will suck. Didn't the Vikings have Ponder last year? Cutler isn't much better than Ponder. Talent wise yes but Cutler is an idiot who makes big mistakes. I'll take the Vikes over the Bears next year any day
 

bleedingpurple

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So, you really think my last years 4-12 Lions can more then double their wins? I know Vegas has them at O/U 7.5..........I just don't see that with Schwartz at the helm.

Yes I do. I hope not, I want the Vikes to beat them twice but I think Stafford and Co have a bounce back year. That defensive line could be scary good this year.
 

gjn23

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teams that jump from 4-5 win range to 10+ wins almost always regress back to form the following season (see lions last year)

yes..i see the queens back to the 6 win level
 

bleedingpurple

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teams that jump from 4-5 win range to 10+ wins almost always regress back to form the following season (see lions last year)

yes..i see the queens back to the 6 win level

Why? Your only response was Ponder? The Lions regressed cause they didn't improve the talent level and did absolutely nothing to improve their weakness from 2011 to 2012. Lions were a weak team at O line and secondary. Vikes have a good young O line and secondary. Vikes continued to build and may have had a good off season. Winning 6 games is a joke, they have a good young nucleus and have some stars.
 

baby johnson

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queens realize they have ponder as qb and regress back to last place
det isn't much better and 2011 season looks like the fluke
bears slightly behind pack as defense is actually more athletic and offense improves and is balanced in passing game
pack win division with 10-11 wins....and lose at home in round 1

in a nutshell
 

gjn23

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Why? Your only response was Ponder? The Lions regressed cause they didn't improve the talent level and did absolutely nothing to improve their weakness from 2011 to 2012. Lions were a weak team at O line and secondary. Vikes have a good young O line and secondary. Vikes continued to build and may have had a good off season. Winning 6 games is a joke, they have a good young nucleus and have some stars.

qb=bad
wr=below avg
schedule= tough
regress model in place
2012 point diff has them an 8-9 win team not 10

not too far out on a limb to say they could be dogs in 12 games......all 8 road games and 3-4 at home

just see last year as the fluke and them regressing to the 6-7 win range....3rd place
 

bleedingpurple

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qb=bad
wr=below avg
schedule= tough
regress model in place
2012 point diff has them an 8-9 win team not 10

not too far out on a limb to say they could be dogs in 12 games......all 8 road games and 3-4 at home

just see last year as the fluke and them regressing to the 6-7 win range....3rd place

I can understand that point but when I have more time I will do a position bu position break down of all division teams. All teams in the division have weaknesses and have a tougher schedule this year.

I have to look into it but off the top of my head, the Bears have many more weaknesses than the Vikes, Vikes QB might not be as BAD as everyone thinks.
 

gjn23

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I can understand that point but when I have more time I will do a position bu position break down of all division teams. All teams in the division have weaknesses and have a tougher schedule this year.

I have to look into it but off the top of my head, the Bears have many more weaknesses than the Vikes, Vikes QB might not be as BAD as everyone thinks.

"There are enough people around the league that believe Matt Cassel is good enough to challenge Ponder," stated Schefter, adding that Cassel "could unseat Ponder at some point this season." Although Schefter confirmed Ponder won't lose his job before Week 1, he called it a "situation that bears watching." Ponder endured a brutal nine-game stretch last season (Weeks 7-16) where he completed 140-of-245 passes (57.1 percent) for just 1,267 yards (5.17 YPA), and a 7:8 TD-to-INT ratio with two lost fumbles. Ponder was serviceable to solid (67.2 percent, 7.01 YPA, 11:4) in his other seven starts.

when matt cassel is in the discussion as being as good as your "starter" then yes......the queens qb situation is BAD....

got queens as worst qb situation in nfc (az and maybe tampa/philly come close)
 

bleedingpurple

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"There are enough people around the league that believe Matt Cassel is good enough to challenge Ponder," stated Schefter, adding that Cassel "could unseat Ponder at some point this season." Although Schefter confirmed Ponder won't lose his job before Week 1, he called it a "situation that bears watching." Ponder endured a brutal nine-game stretch last season (Weeks 7-16) where he completed 140-of-245 passes (57.1 percent) for just 1,267 yards (5.17 YPA), and a 7:8 TD-to-INT ratio with two lost fumbles. Ponder was serviceable to solid (67.2 percent, 7.01 YPA, 11:4) in his other seven starts.

when matt cassel is in the discussion as being as good as your "starter" then yes......the queens qb situation is BAD....

got queens as worst qb situation in nfc (az and maybe tampa/philly come close)

Once Harvin went down the guy had absolutely nobody to throw to besides Rudolph. This is his third year, his make or break year, Yeah the odds are stacked against him but I just have a gut feeling, your stats kind of proves my point, he was that bad at times last year and the Vikes played well in many games. Besides QB they are a well rounded team adding top level prospects. If Ponder is solid which is a big reach then watch out
 

bleedingpurple

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qb=bad
wr=below avg
schedule= tough
regress model in place
2012 point diff has them an 8-9 win team not 10

not too far out on a limb to say they could be dogs in 12 games......all 8 road games and 3-4 at home

just see last year as the fluke and them regressing to the 6-7 win range....3rd place

I see the Bears in the same boat. The Bears have Cutler who makes a lot of mistakes and Marshall, Ponder is a weakness but the Vikes are well rounded and have many more quality young players and have a chance to be dominant at several positions.

Vikes are probably still one year away from being an elite team. They have pressure on 3 rookies (all top prospects), their offensive line is geared to be above average if not dominant, secondary will be much improved, defensive line solid, linebackers are scary, hopefully they can get their hands on Desmond Bishop cause if healthy he can give immediate impact. Like I said before, I'll take the Vikings roster over everyone else's in the division. Just praying Ponder develops
 

heleanth

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Not going to comment on the Pack or Vikes, since I am almost as prejudiced as you are, but Detroit is severely handicapped by having that idiot Schwartz as their head coach. He may be the worst in the NFL and until they get rid of him, .500 is the absolute tops they can hope for.

Cutler has all the tools except the ability to avoid the catastrophic turnover. We know he will make them. The success of the Bears season will depend on whether Cutler's turnovers will cost them games and whether the Bear's defense can offset those turnovers with takeaways of their own. Could compete for the division title, if, as you mentioned, they can at least split with the Packers.

Nice write-ups, BP!
 

gjn23

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Not going to comment on the Pack or Vikes, since I am almost as prejudiced as you are, but Detroit is severely handicapped by having that idiot Schwartz as their head coach. He may be the worst in the NFL and until they get rid of him, .500 is the absolute tops they can hope for.

Cutler has all the tools except the ability to avoid the catastrophic turnover. We know he will make them. The success of the Bears season will depend on whether Cutler's turnovers will cost them games and whether the Bear's defense can offset those turnovers with takeaways of their own. Could compete for the division title, if, as you mentioned, they can at least split with the Packers.

Nice write-ups, BP!

cutler is out of excuses....but....he's had plenty since he came to Chicago:

1) no oline....that should change this year with a group that should be solid and athletic (bushrod-long-Garza-slausen-webb is my prediction)....not dominant, but not the stiffs they've been in the past allowing TONS of sacks and pressure

2) no wr/te......that changed last year with marshall but he turned into a one man show....now they have a 2nd year beast in Jeffrey and Bennett in a 3rd/slot role......with an offensive minded head coach, actual offensive concepts, a big tight end to relieve pressure as an outlet over the middle and a solid line this should be cutler's best year......oh yeah.....it's also a contract year (see flacco, joe)

I still see minn as a one man show, and while that man is a stud, I see their qb situation as a HUGE downfall and with the tougher schedule (@sea/philly vs @ stl/ny) I think the bears finish above min (and det)
 

bleedingpurple

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cutler is out of excuses....but....he's had plenty since he came to Chicago:

1) no oline....that should change this year with a group that should be solid and athletic (bushrod-long-Garza-slausen-webb is my prediction)....not dominant, but not the stiffs they've been in the past allowing TONS of sacks and pressure

2) no wr/te......that changed last year with marshall but he turned into a one man show....now they have a 2nd year beast in Jeffrey and Bennett in a 3rd/slot role......with an offensive minded head coach, actual offensive concepts, a big tight end to relieve pressure as an outlet over the middle and a solid line this should be cutler's best year......oh yeah.....it's also a contract year (see flacco, joe)

I still see minn as a one man show, and while that man is a stud, I see their qb situation as a HUGE downfall and with the tougher schedule (@sea/philly vs @ stl/ny) I think the bears finish above min (and det)

I agree with your Bears assessment on Cutler, I feel that the Vikes are a little more than a one man show and you could compare or at least say Ponder had far less weapons but because of AP should of had nice throwing lanes
 

bleedingpurple

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Not going to comment on the Pack or Vikes, since I am almost as prejudiced as you are, but Detroit is severely handicapped by having that idiot Schwartz as their head coach. He may be the worst in the NFL and until they get rid of him, .500 is the absolute tops they can hope for.

Cutler has all the tools except the ability to avoid the catastrophic turnover. We know he will make them. The success of the Bears season will depend on whether Cutler's turnovers will cost them games and whether the Bear's defense can offset those turnovers with takeaways of their own. Could compete for the division title, if, as you mentioned, they can at least split with the Packers.

Nice write-ups, BP!

No offense but you are far more biased than me. You think any criticism is from haters.

I do not like Schwartz, they had a chance to put the Pack away late in home game and he doesn't run the ball ever inside the 2, they get holding and settle for 6 point lead rather then 10, there are more things I dislike too.

I think the Bears defense is going to suck out loud. They really showed age and Lack of ability to stop the run in final stretch. Briggs and Tillman getting old. Maybe they do have more in tank. Their O line has improvements but most "experts" aren't gawking about em either
 

heleanth

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You are so biased that you think I am more biased than you!

Just kidding, you may be right. I hate the Vikings, not so much because they are the Vikings, but because when I was a kid (before cable TV), all we got were Viking games and Viking news, even when the Pack was contending and the Vikes were out of it. Plus Marsh Nelson and Jack McKenna were sickening in their dislike of the Pack and their drooling over the Vikings.

Do I sound biased
 

bleedingpurple

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You are so biased that you think I am more biased than you!

Just kidding, you may be right. I hate the Vikings, not so much because they are the Vikings, but because when I was a kid (before cable TV), all we got were Viking games and Viking news, even when the Pack was contending and the Vikes were out of it. Plus Marsh Nelson and Jack McKenna were sickening in their dislike of the Pack and their drooling over the Vikings.

Do I sound biased

Well I can promise you the Pack were not contending too many times during the Marsh and McKenna years. I would of blamed Superior for having to use Minnesota outlets for TV programming.

I remember going to the Polish Club with my cousins to watch Packer games on an occasional Sunday. Not all the bars had the game back then. I think EZ bar always did.

Thanks for Sunday Ticket..
 
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