NFC North week 2

[bleedingpurple]

Lets start it out with the Vikings vs Patriots. Don't think there is a bet to be made in this game quite honestly. I am positive the money will be on the Pats, "Brady can't start 0 - 2." (gets gamblers in trouble)

Minnesota is coming off a nice road win but the Rams are awful offensively. All this crap about Sean Hill giving the Rams a better chance to win than Sam Bradford is exactly what it is, a load of crap. Minnesota was able to shut down the run game and force third and longs. Vikes front four man handled the Rams. Looks like free agency is helping the Vikes in a couple ways, the Bears get an old ineffective DE and the Vikings replace him with a younger, faster player in Everson Griffin. Vikes are playing a different style defense than last year's Tampa two and they are on the receivers instead of 5 yards off, getting to the QB, and forcing some turnovers. This week Brady and Co come into town and impose a much different offensive style which the Vikes will need to contend with.

Last week the Pats took a pounding on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Brady was harrassed quite often and the Fish gained almost 200 yards on the ground. Folks I know you guys are going to say I am a homer but the Vikings Offensive and defensive lines are stout. If Moreno can get that many yards, AP may get over 200 if they box him, then they can get it over the top to Corderrelle Patterson, Jennings, and Rudolph who all have big play possibilities. With this being said one would think I am picking the Vikes but not so fast. Even though they blew out the Rams, the offense wasn't as effective as it could have been, the offensive linemen had a lot of early false starts, Cassle was shaky at times but they were playing very conservative with the double digit lead heading into the second half, so it's hard to gauge exactly where they are at.

The Patriots also pose more offensive weapons and Viking teams of the past give up big plays to the tight end and the Pats have Gronk and can also spread you out with all the receivers they have.

Pat's 28 - 27.. Just cant trust Cassle in this spot at the same time I could see the Vikes pulling it out if their lines play really well.

 

[PocketAces]

Totally agree withe the write up. Vikes looked good. Their final score was a little misleading though with the late scores. Also they faced a third string QB most of the second half.

How do you think the change of venue will affect them?

:shrug:

 

[bleedingpurple]

Totally agree withe the write up. Vikes looked good. Their final score was a little misleading though with the late scores. Also they faced a third string QB most of the second half. How do you think the change of venue will affect them? :shrug:

It will depend on who they play and the weather that day. They are getting more physical. It has no effect this week as far as bein negative. Against the Pats I would hope for icky windy run the football type game. I will gladly wear extra clothes and rain gear for a win

 

[heleanth]

I also liked your write-up. I am a little surprised that the line is only -3 for the Pats. I think it may go up a little as the week wears on, because the Pats will get more action for the reasons you mentioned above. If the line does not move, I will be playing Minn plus the 3 points, because it would tell me that big money is on the Vikings, holding the line down even though the public is on NE.

Either way, and even if I bet on them, I hope the Vikings lose by 4 touchdowns.

 

[bleedingpurple]

I also liked your write-up. I am a little surprised that the line is only -3 for the Pats. I think it may go up a little as the week wears on, because the Pats will get more action for the reasons you mentioned above. If the line does not move, I will be playing Minn plus the 3 points, because it would tell me that big money is on the Vikings, holding the line down even though the public is on NE.

Either way, and even if I bet on them, I hope the Vikings lose by 4 touchdowns.

I found a site where you can read the newsletter publications that come out, I love reading PW and PS, and a few others. I kind of like it when they have a take on a game that is opposite of mine. The majority are releasing the PATS as a key release. It would raise a flag cause some of those publications are fairly good, but their write ups don't hold water. You can't compare Minny from this year to last year. Lot's of defensive changes and the coaching much better.

I need to investigate the the Pats front a little bit more.

 

[heleanth]

I agree. I also have access to the newsletters. I like to read them also. Sometimes they make me look at an angle that I may otherwise not have considered. I rarely let their plays influence my betting, but I use quite a bit of the information I get from them.

 

[bleedingpurple]

Jets @ Packers. Pack - 8

When the line came out, I was taken a back, first gut reaction is too many points and I am still sticking with that mid week. Sometimes I can write up a game but on Sunday my gut will have a totally different feel.

Now onto this game. The consensus is the Packers will not go 0-2, much like the Pats, if the Pack do lose this game, they are in BIG BIG trouble. Now the line is set at 8 and I am thinking the country will be on the Pack big. We must not forget to not over react about last week's games. The Packer's didn't lose to the Jags, the Seahawks can make many teams look like crud, ask Denver. The Jets had a cover until under the final two minutes against what should be a lowly Raiders team.

Something about this game doesn't sit right with me. I truly believe the Packers are going to have problems, they are not going to simply pound teams at home like they have in the past. It all starts up front and the Jets are more physical on both sides of the line. Packer's defense is going to have trouble stopping the run or sell out the entire defense to do so. It may work against the Jets as no one fears their passing game. On the other side, even though the Packers are having offensive line troubles, the Jets are thin in the secondary and if Rodgers has time, he should have more opportunities to get the ball into his receivers. I am curious to see how this offense will respond without the big time tight end. Finley dropped the ball a lot but he split the center of defenses demanding a ton of attention. Everyone is going to be on the Pack, Pack ML and teasers. 0 -2. I don't think so, they find a way to win at home but it maybe tougher than people think. Pack 27 - 23.

Hope the Jets find away.

 

[PocketAces]

Jets @ Packers. Pack - 8

When the line came out, I was taken a back, first gut reaction is too many points and I am still sticking with that mid week. Sometimes I can write up a game but on Sunday my gut will have a totally different feel.

Now onto this game. The consensus is the Packers will not go 0-2, much like the Pats, if the Pack do lose this game, they are in BIG BIG trouble. Now the line is set at 8 and I am thinking the country will be on the Pack big. We must not forget to not over react about last week's games. The Packer's didn't lose to the Jags, the Seahawks can make many teams look like crud, ask Denver. The Jets had a cover until under the final two minutes against what should be a lowly Raiders team.

Something about this game doesn't sit right with me. I truly believe the Packers are going to have problems, they are not going to simply pound teams at home like they have in the past. It all starts up front and the Jets are more physical on both sides of the line. Packer's defense is going to have trouble stopping the run or sell out the entire defense to do so. It may work against the Jets as no one fears their passing game. On the other side, even though the Packers are having offensive line troubles, the Jets are thin in the secondary and if Rodgers has time, he should have more opportunities to get the ball into his receivers. I am curious to see how this offense will respond without the big time tight end. Finley dropped the ball a lot but he split the center of defenses demanding a ton of attention. Everyone is going to be on the Pack, Pack ML and teasers. 0 -2. I don't think so, they find a way to win at home but it maybe tougher than people think. Pack 27 - 23.

Hope the Jets find away.

Thank you for taking the time to write this up. Are the Vikings and Jets plays for you this weekend?

 

[bleedingpurple]

Thank you for taking the time to write this up. Are the Vikings and Jets plays for you this weekend?

I'm not very confident in either play to be honest. There is nothing on the board that jumps out at me right now. It is very rare you will see me play the Vikes and last week was an exception, my confidence level was 100%. . I think these are two games have a lot of variables and this is just an opinion that could blow up. Somtimes I have to step back at my dislike for Green Bay to see if I am giving a fair opinion. No doubt with Rodgers they can lay one on someone but man that defense doesn't do it for me.

I am thinking about just placing a 10 point teaser with the Vikes and Jets. Looking for a third team.

 

[Senor Capper]

Best of luck with your plays Bruddah :0008

 

[heleanth]

By the way, my favorite part of the Power Sweep newsletter was the Odds & Ends feature on the first page every week. Seems they cut that out. Must have been too much work. I would never pay for the rag now, no way.

 

[carp]

10 pt. Teaser thought.

10 pt. Teaser thought.

I'm not very confident in either play to be honest. There is nothing on the board that jumps out at me right now. It is very rare you will see me play the Vikes and last week was an exception, my confidence level was 100%. . I think these are two games have a lot of variables and this is just an opinion that could blow up. Somtimes I have to step back at my dislike for Green Bay to see if I am giving a fair opinion. No doubt with Rodgers they can lay one on someone but man that defense doesn't do it for me.

I am thinking about just placing a 10 point teaser with the Vikes and Jets. Looking for a third team.

I think I'm going to keep riding the Packer over until they can actually stop somebody. Have you considered your 3rd Teaser play being over 36 for that game?

 

[bleedingpurple]

I think I'm going to keep riding the Packer over until they can actually stop somebody. Have you considered your 3rd Teaser play being over 36 for that game?

I absolutely suck at totals, if I post a total go ahead and fade me with confidence.

 

[Mr Rattler]

The Patriots are 1-3 ATS last 4 games as a 3 pt fav or less. They are only 9-8 SU on the road last 2 years.

The Vikes are 5-0 ATS and SU last 5 as 3 pt dog or less at home.

I believe this is the year the Patriots finally come back to Earth. Brady is getting old and cannot carry a mediocre team on his shoulders any more.

The Pats are going to be 0-2. This is a strong move for me.

 

[Senor Capper]

Sharp Plays for Week 2

Sharp Plays for Week 2

Your boys are looking SHARP....


Minnesota +3 ? No big shock here that the public is all over the Patriots. After all, New England was beaten last week on the road, and for the first time in his career, quarterback Tom Brady is in last place in the AFC East by himself. On top of that, the Pats have only played four games when under .500 in the last 11 years, and they won and covered all four of those games. Minnesota looked great last week, albeit against St. Louis, but we have a feeling that maybe this team is better than we originally gave it credit for. If that turns out to be the case on Sunday, there could be a sinking feeling in Beantown, as the Patriots could legitimately slip to 0-2 after two weeks of the season.

Opening Line: Minnesota +3
Current Line: Minnesota +3
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on New England






Cleveland +6 ? The sharpest play on the board in Week 2. The Browns are playing their opening game at FirstEnergy Stadium this year, and we really aren't all that sure why they are such massive underdogs in this game. New Orleans has had a history of playing poorly on the road, and they have gone 3-5 in each of the last two seasons away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints started off last week with a loss on the road in Atlanta, and this is probably a tougher atmosphere to be playing in because it isn't inside of a dome. Mother Nature could play a role here, and if she does, it certainly suits the Browns more than the Saints. The big question: Are the real Browns the ones we saw in the first-half against the Steelers last week or the ones who played in the second-half? That's the big problem that we have to try to work out.

Opening Line: Cleveland +6
Current Line: Cleveland +6
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on New Orleans





San Diego +5.5 ? Again, no real surprises here. The Seahawks looked like the most dominating team in the NFL when they beat the snot out of the Packers last week on the opening night of the season. However, we still think they have some holes that could be exploited. The Chargers ended up losing on Monday Night Football and have to play on a short week, which isn't going to help matters any, but they have a history of pulling off upsets like this. That's a lot of points to be giving a team that historically will stay close to anyone in the NFL when stuck in that ridiculous underdog role.

Opening Line: San Diego +5.5
Current Line: San Diego +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 68% on Seattle

 

[bleedingpurple]

People have asked me a lot about this Viking team and a lot of people have been misguided by last season and by the National media. Are the Vikings world beaters? heaven's no, but they are making great strides at becoming an excellent football team. I know I have gone on at nauseum about the team but I have nothing better to do. Also for this week's game a spread doesn't do me any good, I am not wagering on it even though I am getting more and more confident. For me it's a win or nothing, plus I don't think the Vikings have beat the Pats in my life of watching Viking football. Maybe they beat Grogan week 2 of some season year's ago but anyway here is the difference between this year and last year's team.

1. Let's just start with the coaching, Leslie Frasier and Bill Musgrave are incompetent when it comes to head coaching and being an offensive coordinator. Zimmer brings something to the table the Vikings haven't had at coach since Grant. Zimmer has surrounded himself with proven coordinators and people who know football unlike Childress and the Frasier regimes. Turner brings a dynamic to the offense and that stupid Tampa 2 defense is gone and now they play a more attacking defense.

2. The progression at defensive back. The secondary has been a Viking weakness and the National media blindly touts the Vikes secondary as being weak again this year. SS Harrison Smith is in his third year at Free Safety and he has All Pro talent, the guy is everywhere EXCEPT last season when he was out for the majority with turf toe. They spent a first round pick last year on in your face DB Xavier Rhodes and brought in a solid corner Captain Munerlyn. Josh Robinson plays the nickel, very talented player and now he has the right coaching to put him into position.

3. The Vikings have solidified a defensive line that was weak. The old aging Allen is gone and enters up tempo Everson Griffin. Also they drafted DT Sharif Flloyd last year and signed FA NT Linvol Joseph to plug the middle, these are big moves.

4. They have a returning offensive line who has been together for a third season in a row and reports are the right guard Fusco is turning into their best linemen and they already have a solid tackle combo in Khalil and Loadholt and the center Sullivan is considered above average when healthy. They are going run grate a few teams. Look at last week, the Rams are considered an above average front seven and they did really well. Wonder what will happen when they play a weaker front 7.

5. The quarterback play, it's much more optimistic this season with Cassle being groomed the entire off season and getting the reps instead of having Ponder or Josh Freeman stuffed down your throats. Cassle is not a dominating force but he can be effective and can find an open receiver. Plus Teddy is the second stringer and is being groomed for next season, much better scenario than last year.

6. The receiving core, I am not being a homer but Corderrelle Patterson is going to be a top 10 reciever, maybe not this year but barring injury it's going to happen and it will be sooner than later. Add in Jennings is in his second year, Simpson will be third receiver if he doesn't get into more trouble and tight end Kyle Rudolph is a solid run blocker and an excellent receiving option.

7. Special Teams - The Vikings have a top 5 special teams unit in the NFL from kicking, punting, kick return, and coverage. They went through a span of about 10 years where they were easily the bottom 5.

8. So where is the weakness? Even though the QB situation is better Cassle just isn't the guy to go forward and to be honest he doesn't make players around him better, he needs players to make him better which is what I look at when critiquing a QB. The next weakness is the linebacking core. Chad Greenway is over rated, I know he leads the team in tackles but he doesn't make the spectacular plays a guy who gets paid like that should. The middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley just isn't very good compared to other middle linebackers and rookie LB Anthony Barr is raw, he will get to the QB and make some plays in coverage but run stopping will be a learning process.

Intangibles - The Viking lost the lead in 5 games last season losing in the final seconds in a few of those games. With the improvements mentioned above, the team should get over the hump in close games this year. Even though they are improving, the schedule is daunting on paper and I still think they are 1 year away from being something really special and it's going to depend on TEDDY.