NFL Divisional Round Best Bet with Leans

FirstnGoal

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Oct 15, 2004
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2011/2012 NFL Plays Record:
14-7-1

Best Bets:
12-3-1

Teasers:
11-4

Straight Plays:
3-3-1

Breakdown:

Playoff Plays 1-0
Playoff Leans: 1-0
Game Predictions 1-1

Medium Size Plays:
3-1

Small 1 Unit Plays:
9-4-1

Very Small 1/2 Unit Plays:
2-2

Leans:
11-8-1

+7.8 Units


The Texans ez beat down of the Bengals made for another profitable week!

I have one play for now for this week that I already hit and it's my best bet for this week.


Best Bet
Small 1 Unit Play
New Orleans Saints -3 (-135)
over 49ers

The Saints enter this game having won 9 games in a row and face a 49ers team that's 7-1 SU at home and has won 4 of their last 6 games...to cut to the chase,the mismatch in this game is the Saints passing game with Drew Brees going against a 49ers secondary that allows an average of 230 yds in the air per game...the best QB's they faced all season long was Eli Manning who threw for 302 yds in a 27-20 loss when the Giants were banged up and in a funk, Big Ben who threw for 330 yds when he played on his injured ankle and Joe Flacoo in a 16-6 loss...they also beat the Lions and Stafford when he was out of sync but were torched for 427 passing yds in their 27-24 loss to the Cowboys in week 2...even John Skelton found success vs the Niners secondary throwing for 282 yds in the Cards 21-19 upset win over them just four weeks ago...the Niners D had the luxury of facing the likes of the Rams, Seahawks, and Cards twice this year along with the Browns and Bucs...all in all, the Niners defense is stout vs the run, but can be torched by a team that can throw the football, and the last time I checked Drew Brees and the Saints passing attack is elite...The Niners as a team were plus 28 in the turnover battle this year as Alex Smith enjoyed his best season as a pro,but make no mistake the Niners are a run first team and must run the ball successfully early and often to have a chance in this game, however, the Saints are much better at defending the run than they are vs the pass which also plays into their hands...both teams have some nice trends pointing their way as the Saints are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs the NFC, while the Niners are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 vs the NFC and are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall...the Trump Card is the Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Niners and have beaten the Niners in their last 6 meetings between the two teams...plus QB Drew Brees is a perfect 4-0 SU vs the Niners as the Saints QB...Bottom Line -The Saints to a man have talked this week about how they are being perceived as a Dome team and want to state their case on the road on Saturday, add to that the fact that they still have the taste of a road playoff upset in their minds from their loss to the Seahawks last season...I don't expect the Niners to roll over at home, but Ill take the hotter team right now with a much better QB and the experience of playing in big games and in the playoffs over a Niners team that will struggle to stop the Saints passing attack and one that could be feeling the butterflies some Saturday...The Saints advance to the NFC Championship game!
New Orleans 27 San Francisco 20
 
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FirstnGoal

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Saturday

Game Prediction:

New England 34 Denver 17
...The Patriots passing game has a nice matchup vs a Broncos secondary that will struggle to matchup with the Pats receiving core...on the flip side the Pats D will roll coverage toward Demaryious Thomas with Eric Decker sidelined and the Patriots will benifit from having already played Tebow before ...The Broncos must run the ball effectively to keep Brady and Co on the bench and keep from getting into a track meet to keep the game from getting ugly...The Patriots are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 vs the AFC but just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in January...on the flip side the Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games...If this rematch were to be played in Denver I'd give the Horses a better chance at the upset, but since it's not, the Home team advances to the AFC Title game.
 
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FirstnGoal

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Oct 15, 2004
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Game Prediction:

Baltimore 19 Houston 16
...The Ravens beat the Texans 29-14 back in October with Schaub at QB for Texans but they were without WR Andre Johnson in that game...this should be a hard hitting battle between two good defenses...The Texans are 4-0-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games in January...The Ravens are 5-0-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite...I think this game will go down to the wire with the home team Ravens advancing to the AFC Title game in a low scoring affair.
 

trolln4walii

shorelunchne1
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Jul 11, 2004
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Canadian waters(summertime)
Hoping you sweep your three plays FnG. Got the same three (NO -3/-130, NE -13/-115, and Hou +7.5/-115) Also playing the Pack without the hook (-130)

Thanks for all your contributions this season. I really enjoy reading your analysis each week :toast:
 

FirstnGoal

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Oct 15, 2004
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Hoping you sweep your three plays FnG. Got the same three (NO -3/-130, NE -13/-115, and Hou +7.5/-115) Also playing the Pack without the hook (-130)

Thanks for all your contributions this season. I really enjoy reading your analysis each week :toast:

Thanks Trollin best of luck to you this weekend!

:toast:

The Saints was my only play this weekend with the other two being just game predictions...the Packers/Giants game will be posted tomorrow.
 

FirstnGoal

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I thought I had a push when the Saints came back in the game after burying themselves because of turnovers yesterday but Ill take the loss.

For today:

Lean:

New York Giants +9 over Packers...The Packers hung on to beat the Giants 38-35 back on 12/04 and should face another stern test from a healthier Giants team that matches up pretty well with the Packers...I really think the Giants have a chance at pulling the upset if they can win the turnover battle, since they are facing a Packers team that must overcome distractions that they have had to deal with this past week...GB is a perfect 8-0 SU at home this season, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in January and 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record...the Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games, 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs the NFC.
Green Bay 31 NY Giants 27
 

FirstnGoal

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Game Prediction:

Baltimore 19 Houston 16
...The Ravens beat the Texans 29-14 back in October with Schaub at QB for Texans but they were without WR Andre Johnson in that game...this should be a hard hitting battle between two good defenses...The Texans are 4-0-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games in January...The Ravens are 5-0-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite...I think this game will go down to the wire with the home team Ravens advancing to the AFC Title game in a low scoring affair.

Had the Texans coaching staff put the ball in Arian Fosters hands and not the rookie Yates the Texans might have pulled off the upset...but it was close and low scoring just as I expected.

 
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