NFL Divisional Round Plays....

AR182

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Didn't play anything last week during the Wild Card Rounds....

Under 18.5 1st Half Balt / Pitt....

Balt. is 7-0 Under the 1st half total against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better over the last 3 seasons.....The average half time total scored in these games was 14.1....


Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (Balt.) - after a win by 14 or more points against opponent after 2 straight wins by 14 or more points....

Over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....9-0....100%....

The average first half total posted in these games was....19.6....The average total first half points scored in these games was....13.8....


Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (Pitt.) - after a win by 14 or more points against opponent after a win by 21 or more points....

The system's record this season is....5-0....100%....

The average first half total posted in these games was....19.7....The average total first half scored in these games was....15.6....

Good luck....
 

MrChristo

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You might have just nudged me into it AR. :toast:

League: 1-8-1 under [since 89] (Av. total 42.5..a.v. score 29.9!) any road dog off a 14+ ats win as road 3+ fav with 34+ TOP. [Balt]


EDIT: The av. score @ HT in those games was 17.2. :0074

Solid D and ball control against an even better team... :0corn

Have been a bit hesitant due to the lowish (game) total, but first half now looks good.

Good luck. :drinky:
 
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AR182

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Another play....

7 point teaser....

Chi.-3....
NE-2.5....

Teams that knock off the defending superbowl champs in the playoffs are 1-10 ATS in their next playoff game & teams that allowed 21 or more points in their previous playoff game are 9-21 ATS in their next playoff game....

The reason why I'm not playing Chicago by itself is because I think Cutler is very careless with the ball & imo 10 points is too much to lay with him at QB....

New England is my best bet this weekend & probably will bet them separately....Just waiting to see if the line goes down....

Good luck....
 

AR182

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I'm probably going to play the Pats, just watching the line....

Here is an article about the Jets injuries....

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- The New York Jets have suffered a blow even before they step on the field against the New England Patriots, as offensive tackle Damien Woody was placed on injured reserve Wednesday, coach Rex Ryan announced.

Woody suffered an Achilles injury and will undergo surgery Wednesday afternoon, according to Ryan.

The Achilles injury is to his left leg. The veteran right tackle recently underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, which sidelined him for the last three regular-season games.

"It was on the last drive [of Saturday's playoff victory]," Ryan said. "I never knew the extent of it."

"It's unfortunate," he added. "He worked his tail off to get back and has a great challenge against him with [Indianapolis' Robert] Mathis and did a great job and was getting ready to play his old team."

Woody played the wild-card game against the Colts after missing three weeks due to arthroscopic knee surgery.

Woody isn't the only starting offensive lineman who is hurt. Right guard Brandon Moore injured his back while lifting weights Tuesday but said he will be fine for Sunday's game against the Patriots in the AFC divisional playoffs.

"It's a non-issue," Moore said. "It'll be all right by Sunday. I'll treat the hell out of it and be ready to go." Moore did not practice due to the back injury and lost a day of practice reps with Woody's replacement, Wayne Hunter. Rob Turner worked at right guard in Moore's absence.

The Jets have enough recent experience with Hunter in the starting lineup. The 6-5, 318-pound tackle started the last three regular-season games when Woody was out with the knee injury.

"[Woody] is one of the best offensive tackles out there if not the best right tackle," Hunter said. "So I think it will always mess up the chemistry a little bi, but since I've been playing against Pittsburgh and Chicago, it [could] be more. I don't think it will be that much of a change."

Hunter also came in on the final three plays for Woody against the Colts when Woody injured his Achilles.

"We are fortunate, I've always said that we've had the best backup tackle in the league in Wayne Hunter and he has played a lot of football for us," Ryan said. "We have a lot of confidence in Wayne."

Initially, Ryan wasn't sure how badly Woody was hurt at the end of the Colts game. Losing Woody before the biggest game of the year is a blow as Brian Schottenheimer's running game will miss the 12-year veteran, who helped the Jets rush for 169 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts.

The Jets could use Woody against his former team and the mammoth Vince Wilfork. Woody held Colts defensive end Robert Mathis without a sack last week after coming back from knee surgery.

At 33, Woody now will have to rebound from Achilles surgery. The 6-3, 327-pound tackle has two years remaining on his contract and is due $3.35 million in base salary to go with $400,000 in bonuses. His total cap number is $4.26 million, but he does not have a roster bonus coming so the Jets will not have to make any potential decisions about Woody by any specific time.

With Hunter starting at right tackle against the Steelers, Bears and Bills, the Jets rushed for 100 yards or better in each of those games, including 276 yards against the Bills. Hunter has also been used as an extra offensive lineman/jumbo tight end in Schottenheimer's offense.

"He's been doing a great job," running back Shonn Greene said. I don't think we lose much if anything at all when he's in there. He's already been playing when Damien was hurt. Either way, those are two good tackles right there."

Bill Belichick could tweak his defensive game plan now that the backup tackle is in for Woody. Hunter expects to see plenty of Wilfork, the Pro Bowl defensive tackle who went up against Woody quite a bit in their last meeting.

"The last game, he was over D-Wood a lot," Hunter said of Wilfork, "so I have to be ready for that. Vince is the man, stout and hard to move. He's worthy of the Pro Bowl game.

"I don't think they will change much. I'm not expecting more than what I see on film. If they do [change], so be it. I'll be up to the challenge."

Center Nick Mangold says the Jets will be fine with Hunter in there.

"Wayne has done a fantastic job of making sure he is prepared every week and it is a difficult task as a backup to stay focused and really understand what we are doing," Mangold said. "That showed when he came in and he was able to step in and play pretty well. We have all the confidence and trust in the world that he will get the job done."

Woody and multipurpose weapon Brad Smith missed practice for the second consecutive day as the Jets continued preparations Wednesday for Sunday's game.

Smith (groin) is expected to play, Ryan has said.

"If it was up to me, I'd play," Smith said. "We have to do what's best for the team. It's probably a little bit more than sore. I'd love to play. We'll have to see how the rest of the week goes.

"I haven't really tested it full out. I'm just building up to it. I was able to do some light running today, which felt pretty good. We'll see how tomorrow goes."

Smith was hurt in the first quarter, but returned in the third. It's likely that his injury will prevent him from returning kickoffs. That job probably will go to Antonio Cromartie, whose 47-yard return set up the game-winning field goal against the Colts.

Wide receiver Santonio Holmes (quadriceps) returned to practice after missing a day. Right guard Brandon Moore wasn't seen on the field during the first 30 minutes of practice; the reason hasn't been disclosed. He hasn't shown up on any recent injury reports.

Rob Turner worked at right guard in Moore's absence.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez, who did very little throwing Tuesday, stepped up his workload, as per usual for the second practice of the week. He was throwing with more zip on his passes during the quarterback drills.

Backup wide receiver Patrick Turner didn't practice; the reason was not disclosed.
 

Zamo

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AR.....whatever happens....once again great info!! Thanks for sharing as the reasoning/logic is sound!! I played a unit on it!!

Thanks man!! :0008
 

AR182

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Thanks guys....Appreciate it....

NE-?....

I am definitely going to make a play on the Pats.... Depending on the line I get will determine the size of the play....

Here are a few reasons why I like the Pats....

Playing well & winning on the road in b2b weeks during the playoffs is rather difficult as teams in this position are 18-37 SU & 21-34 ATS (38%) when not getting double-digits since 1980....

The Jets are coming off a dramtic "grind-em" come from behind win last week where their before the game, the coach constantly preached that that game was very "personal" for them....Imo eventhough there is a lot of animosity between these 2 teams, I just feel that it will be difficult to carry that emotion over to a 2nd straight road playoff game....And to make matters worse for the Jets....This is their 3rd road game in 4 weeks vs a team (NE) who is not only off a bye week but playing in their 3rd home game in a 4 game span....

I also feel that this match-up is not good for the Jets defense....Eventhough they held Manning & the Colts to 312 total yds. last week, that was against a team that had numerous injuries to their o-line & receivers....Imo the Pats offense is too diversified for the Jets to control....Whereas Indy had virtually no running attack this year,the Pats had an under-rated rushing attack as they averaged 4.35 ypa (10th in the league), totaled 1,973 yards on the ground (9th) & their 19 rushing TDs were the 2nd most in the league....While the Jets defense had to only worry about Reggie Wayne last week, the Pats have Welker (86 receptions), Branch (61), & their 2 rookie TEs (Caught 87 passes & 16 TDs combined) to worry about....Revis can only cover 1 guy at a time....In addition since Leonard has been hurt, the Jets have had trouble covering the middle of the field....And while last year the Jets were very good on pass defense (Allowed 5.4 ypa with an outstanding 8-17 TD/INT ratio), they are not the same this year (Allowed 6.5 ypa with a 24-12 ratio)....

On the other side of the ball, the Jets will be w/o 1 of their starting lineman & the NE defense will make Sanchez pay if he is as sloppy with the ball as he has shown, as the Pat defense is #1 in ints (25) & 2nd in takeaways (38 )....They have forced at least 2 turnovers in 7 straight games....The Jets are ranked 6th in rushing the ball (4.45 ypa), while the NE defense ranks 22nd against the run (4.23 ypa)....In ther last game where the Pats beat the Jets 45-3, the Jets ran for a little over 150 yds....So there is a way of allowing rushing yards & still winning big....

After being humiliated at home by the Ravens in last years playoffs, I can't see the Pats coming out flat again for this game & think that they win this game by double digits....

Good luck....
 

grandpa

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Seattle is 8-9 which everyone knows. The crazy stat is that in the nine losses, the closest they came was 15 points.

So your point about Cutler is valid, but I tend to think either Seattle wins, or they get rocked
 

AR182

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Seattle is 8-9 which everyone knows. The crazy stat is that in the nine losses, the closest they came was 15 points.

So your point about Cutler is valid, but I tend to think either Seattle wins, or they get rocked

grandpa....

Because of this I, myself will not play Seattle....

Teams that knock off the defending superbowl champs in the playoffs are 1-10 ATS in their next playoff game & teams that allowed 21 or more points in their previous playoff game are 9-21 ATS in their next playoff game....

And because of Cutler's sloppiness with the ball prevents me from laying dd on the Bears....

Good luck with whatever you decide....
 
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