A terrible week last week, going just 1-5, to end the regular season. That dropped the season record to 58-45-5. Luckily the first sixteen weeks had been solid and the poor showing last week still leaves me with a 56% winning percentage.
A quick look back over the last two years shows some amazing consistency. Last year, during the regular season, I finished 59-43 58% and this year, 58-45 and 56%. Last year there were 102 plays and this year 103 plays (minus the ties). The two year record is now 117-88 57%. The goal for me each year is 55% winners and produce a profit of +20% or better. Hopefully the playoffs will produce some more profit and I can finish the season strong.
All side opinions went 10-6 last week and are now 134-111-9 55% over the first seventeen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
A few notes about the Wild Card round. When looking at the wildcard round, I think it's important to understand the changes that took place in 1990. Prior to 1990, the two wildcard teams from each conference played each other in the "wildcard round." But, when the NFL added one more wildcard team in 1990, that produced a first place team playing a wildcard team in the "divisional round." The years previous to this saw just wildcard teams playing each other. And last year, another segment was added because of the extra division created in each conference. This produced two playoff games in each conference with each divisional winner playing a wildcard team. Now, some might say the wildcard version 2004 Tennessee Titans are better than the divisional winning 2004 Baltimore Ravens, but the Ravens do get the home game. But, it can be debated on who is better.
What's important to know is since 1990, when divisional winners started playing wildcard teams, the home teams have never failed to produce at least a .500 record SU, and other than two years of going 2-2 SU (1991 & 1992), they have gone 3-1 SU in 10 years and 4-0 SU one other year. So, in the 13 years, only two years have produced .500 years and 11 of 13 years have seen the home teams win at least three of the four games played.
Naturally all that is important is who covers the spread, but I thought the SU numbers were important this year seeing three of the four teams are laying three or less points or getting points. Prior to last year, we still had a wildcard team playing a wildcard team, which really isn't representative of what is happening now. So, I looked at only divisional winners playing wildcard teams in the first round. Those home teams went 16-11-1 against the spread and 20-8 SU. If the line was three or less or our home team was a dog, they went 4-2 against the spread and 5-1 SU.
The bottom line here is home teams dominate this round and trying to predict which road team will win SU is really asking for trouble. Over the previous 20 years, there have only been four years (20%) that the road teams have covered more games than the home team in this round, including covering three of four last year. Six times over the last 20 years, have more than one team in this round been favored by three or less (or dogs). During those six years, the road team has never covered more times than the home team. Three times the home team went 1-1, one time 1-0-1, one time 2-0 and one time 4-0. Again, the home teams are the safe bets here and looking at too many road teams could get you in trouble. Remember, history repeats itself more than you might think or like. Finally, home dogs are now 7-0 in this round. On to the games.
Tennessee -1.5 BALTIMORE 39.5
Baltimore has now won five straight games against Tennessee. They won last year's game 13-12 but were out gained 402-199 yards and 5.4-3.6 yppl. For the season, Baltimore is averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr but only 4.9 yps against 5.9 yps. During their last five games, they are averaging 5.5 yps against 6.2 yps so the seasonal numbers also include Kyle Boller's poor numbers. On defense, Baltimore has been very solid, allowing just 3.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 4.8 yps against 5.8 yps. For Tennessee, they still don't run the ball well but they continue to throw the ball extremely well, averaging 3.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 7.4 yps against 6.0 yps for the season. On defense, Tennessee has played well against the run, but that may be more of a product of teams throwing when behind. Tennessee allowed teams to average 3.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr but 6.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Tennessee has allowed two teams to rush for 100+ yards this year. They allowed New England and Indianapolis, when they played Indy in Tennessee. They lost both of those games 30-38 and 27-29. What are the chances that Baltimore gets 100+ yards this week? Well, they have rushed for 100+ yards in every game this year since week two. Granted those two teams throw the ball much better than Baltimore, but Baltimore has a chance if they can get their rushing yards. This game, like all playoff games, comes down to turnovers. That would seem to favor Tennessee with Steve McNair versus Anthony Wright. But, Baltimore hasn't had more turnovers at home since their game against Kansas City, which also included Kyle Boller. Their defense has done a great job of creating turnovers at home. When Tennessee has committed more turnovers than their opponents, on the road, they have lost this year. I think the side here is hard to predict. Tennessee is the better team with the better quarterback, but the situations favor both teams, making the side a pass for me. Tennessee qualifies in a playoff situation, which is 42-16-0 but that situation, up to now, has always played the home team, so it's tough to figure out how a road team will react in this situation. Baltimore has only allowed 10 points over their last two games, but teams allowing 20 or fewer points over their last two games, are actually pointspread losers in the playoffs. Baltimore qualifies in a negative situation based on that premise, which is 44-18-2 and plays against Baltimore here. But, teams coming off a win of 10 or more points are poor propositions and Tennessee qualifies in a negative situation based on that, which is 34-11-3 and plays against Tennessee here. Baltimore also qualifies in a turnover situation, which indicates the turnovers stand a good chance to go their way in this game. That situation, which is a subset of my regular season turnover table, is 24-7-0 in the playoffs. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which works very well in the playoffs. The play I like the best here is the over. The average points scored in a NFL game this year is 42 points and this total is lower than 40 points, which means these two teams don't have to even score the average points in a game. Yes, the Baltimore defense is very good and can be stingy at home, but Tennessee seems to be able to score against anybody they play. Tennessee has played solid defensive teams New England, Buffalo and Tampa Bay this year and averaged 30+ points. They also tend to allow teams to score against them and even if they run away with this game, they will allow Baltimore to score at least 17 points in this game. Tennessee has allowed at least 13 points in every road game this year and Baltimore has scored 44, 44, 31 and 13 points at home with Anthony Wright at quarterback. Yes, I realize the defense has accounted for some of those points but they will get their points at home. Situations go both ways but it'll take points to beat Tennessee and Brian Billick realizes that. BALTIMORE 27 TENNESSEE 24
A quick look back over the last two years shows some amazing consistency. Last year, during the regular season, I finished 59-43 58% and this year, 58-45 and 56%. Last year there were 102 plays and this year 103 plays (minus the ties). The two year record is now 117-88 57%. The goal for me each year is 55% winners and produce a profit of +20% or better. Hopefully the playoffs will produce some more profit and I can finish the season strong.
All side opinions went 10-6 last week and are now 134-111-9 55% over the first seventeen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
A few notes about the Wild Card round. When looking at the wildcard round, I think it's important to understand the changes that took place in 1990. Prior to 1990, the two wildcard teams from each conference played each other in the "wildcard round." But, when the NFL added one more wildcard team in 1990, that produced a first place team playing a wildcard team in the "divisional round." The years previous to this saw just wildcard teams playing each other. And last year, another segment was added because of the extra division created in each conference. This produced two playoff games in each conference with each divisional winner playing a wildcard team. Now, some might say the wildcard version 2004 Tennessee Titans are better than the divisional winning 2004 Baltimore Ravens, but the Ravens do get the home game. But, it can be debated on who is better.
What's important to know is since 1990, when divisional winners started playing wildcard teams, the home teams have never failed to produce at least a .500 record SU, and other than two years of going 2-2 SU (1991 & 1992), they have gone 3-1 SU in 10 years and 4-0 SU one other year. So, in the 13 years, only two years have produced .500 years and 11 of 13 years have seen the home teams win at least three of the four games played.
Naturally all that is important is who covers the spread, but I thought the SU numbers were important this year seeing three of the four teams are laying three or less points or getting points. Prior to last year, we still had a wildcard team playing a wildcard team, which really isn't representative of what is happening now. So, I looked at only divisional winners playing wildcard teams in the first round. Those home teams went 16-11-1 against the spread and 20-8 SU. If the line was three or less or our home team was a dog, they went 4-2 against the spread and 5-1 SU.
The bottom line here is home teams dominate this round and trying to predict which road team will win SU is really asking for trouble. Over the previous 20 years, there have only been four years (20%) that the road teams have covered more games than the home team in this round, including covering three of four last year. Six times over the last 20 years, have more than one team in this round been favored by three or less (or dogs). During those six years, the road team has never covered more times than the home team. Three times the home team went 1-1, one time 1-0-1, one time 2-0 and one time 4-0. Again, the home teams are the safe bets here and looking at too many road teams could get you in trouble. Remember, history repeats itself more than you might think or like. Finally, home dogs are now 7-0 in this round. On to the games.
Tennessee -1.5 BALTIMORE 39.5
Baltimore has now won five straight games against Tennessee. They won last year's game 13-12 but were out gained 402-199 yards and 5.4-3.6 yppl. For the season, Baltimore is averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr but only 4.9 yps against 5.9 yps. During their last five games, they are averaging 5.5 yps against 6.2 yps so the seasonal numbers also include Kyle Boller's poor numbers. On defense, Baltimore has been very solid, allowing just 3.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 4.8 yps against 5.8 yps. For Tennessee, they still don't run the ball well but they continue to throw the ball extremely well, averaging 3.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 7.4 yps against 6.0 yps for the season. On defense, Tennessee has played well against the run, but that may be more of a product of teams throwing when behind. Tennessee allowed teams to average 3.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr but 6.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Tennessee has allowed two teams to rush for 100+ yards this year. They allowed New England and Indianapolis, when they played Indy in Tennessee. They lost both of those games 30-38 and 27-29. What are the chances that Baltimore gets 100+ yards this week? Well, they have rushed for 100+ yards in every game this year since week two. Granted those two teams throw the ball much better than Baltimore, but Baltimore has a chance if they can get their rushing yards. This game, like all playoff games, comes down to turnovers. That would seem to favor Tennessee with Steve McNair versus Anthony Wright. But, Baltimore hasn't had more turnovers at home since their game against Kansas City, which also included Kyle Boller. Their defense has done a great job of creating turnovers at home. When Tennessee has committed more turnovers than their opponents, on the road, they have lost this year. I think the side here is hard to predict. Tennessee is the better team with the better quarterback, but the situations favor both teams, making the side a pass for me. Tennessee qualifies in a playoff situation, which is 42-16-0 but that situation, up to now, has always played the home team, so it's tough to figure out how a road team will react in this situation. Baltimore has only allowed 10 points over their last two games, but teams allowing 20 or fewer points over their last two games, are actually pointspread losers in the playoffs. Baltimore qualifies in a negative situation based on that premise, which is 44-18-2 and plays against Baltimore here. But, teams coming off a win of 10 or more points are poor propositions and Tennessee qualifies in a negative situation based on that, which is 34-11-3 and plays against Tennessee here. Baltimore also qualifies in a turnover situation, which indicates the turnovers stand a good chance to go their way in this game. That situation, which is a subset of my regular season turnover table, is 24-7-0 in the playoffs. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which works very well in the playoffs. The play I like the best here is the over. The average points scored in a NFL game this year is 42 points and this total is lower than 40 points, which means these two teams don't have to even score the average points in a game. Yes, the Baltimore defense is very good and can be stingy at home, but Tennessee seems to be able to score against anybody they play. Tennessee has played solid defensive teams New England, Buffalo and Tampa Bay this year and averaged 30+ points. They also tend to allow teams to score against them and even if they run away with this game, they will allow Baltimore to score at least 17 points in this game. Tennessee has allowed at least 13 points in every road game this year and Baltimore has scored 44, 44, 31 and 13 points at home with Anthony Wright at quarterback. Yes, I realize the defense has accounted for some of those points but they will get their points at home. Situations go both ways but it'll take points to beat Tennessee and Brian Billick realizes that. BALTIMORE 27 TENNESSEE 24
