NFL Gaming Notes - Part I
With training camps open or about to open, it is time to take a look at how the offseason has treated each NFL team. Some of these musings will deal with the coach, some the draft/free agency, and others (for a certain team with a star on its helmet) the utter football ineptitude of the owner. All of them will take a look at the Vegas number on season wins, and tell of a play I have already made or will make on each team.
Here?s a closer look at the first 16 clubs?
Arizona Cardinals - Not terribly impressed with the draft, as Beanie Wells has too many question marks for me, but there is still a good deal of talent on this team, and would be surprised if they fell off the map. Defending NFC Champ not getting any love in Vegas, as the Over/Under on their season wins is nine, with the Under being favored in most houses. In a division that still has rebuilding to do (Rams and Niners not up to snuff yet in this view), I would be surprised if the Cards do not win at least four, and with a split against Seattle five, division games, getting them more than halfway to this win total. I will be playing the Over.
Atlanta Falcons - * Former Dirty Birds surprised a ton of people, myself included, last season, by making a playoff run. Now the challenge for Mike Smith and his team is to keep it going, and with a season win total of eight and a half (shaded Over), there is skepticism as to whether or not they will get the job done. I will not be playing Atlanta season wins one way or the other, but with an off season of opposing defensive coordinators studying Matt Ryan and a draft class that was 88% comprised on defense, I will be looking at the Under on their games, especially in the first part of the season. I do already have my ticket on Under 42.5 for the first game against the Dolphins.
Baltimore Ravens -* One of my friends here in Vegas, someone I have a great deal of respect for, was all over the Ravens last season, and we had spirited discussions about it for most of the off season. He was proven correct, but this year the feeling is not as strong for him, and, again, we disagree, as this looks like a very solid team to me, one that could win ten games and thus go Over the Vegas total on their season wins, which is nine and a half in most spot. I will not be betting it since my projection of ten is just above the total, but I certainly do lean with the Over. While not overwhelming, the draft did serve to replenish the depth on the team and infuse some much-needed youth. One other note is that I think the Ravens will be an excellent preseason team, as depth wins preseason games and there are few teams that can rival the Ravens in that area.
Buffalo Bills *- Initial season win numbers for the Bills were either eight or seven and a half, depending on where you shopped. I did not, and am not, going to get involved with this prop since my number is right in line with that of Vegas, but I do know that one well respected Vegas linesmaker thinks the Bills can win ten games this year, an opinion based on his great faith in what Trent Edwards will do now that he has the chance to throw to what he called (referencing Terrell Owens and Lee Evans) "the best pair of WR?s in the AFC." I think that might be a little strong, as the Steelers and Colts might have something to say about that distinction, but this will be a duo to be reckoned with. I hope for Bills fans that Trent Edwards is able to get along with Owens, and he just might be the perfect fit, as he not a big ego guy like TO predecessors Romo, Garcia, and McNabb, so maybe things will work out. Buffalo?s Season Win number is 7.5 with a slight shade to the Over. The Bills won seven games last year and could improve, but I do not share the confidence of the fellow I reference above. I am going to sit this one out.
Carolina Panthers -* I like this team. Julius Peppers is back, they got him some help on the DL in the form or top draft choice Everette Brown, and since teams cannot double team both of them, I look for the Cats to get solid pressure on opposing QB?s this season. When the defense is playing well and creating turnovers, Jake Delhomme, Steve Steve and the offense is more than capable of getting the job done. Yes, Delhomme is streaky, but he has led a team to a Super Bowl, and while that might be a little much to ask of this Cats team, I do think they can win more than nine games, and the Over is as high as +145 in some spots. One final note about my philosophy on season wins, and that is that I prefer to play into even numbers unless I am EXTREMELY strong on one side. The reason is simple, as a push is better than a loss, and with the even numbers there is one more "out" for a result that is acceptable. I have played this Over but am actually mad that I acted so early, as I could have gotten a better price than the +120 that is printed on my ticket.
Cincinnati Bengals *- One very respected Vegas sharp, one that has his own special "place" in Vegas lore, is very high on the Bengals this season, and rumor has it he has bet the striped helmets in every game this season, as one of the locals oriented sportsbooks has posted lines on the entire season. This guy is usually very good you do not win the Hilton by accident - and has his reasons for liking the team (mostly centered around the return to health of Carson Palmer and a seemingly * more on that later * stout defense), but I am going to withhold judgement until seeing how many other Bengals get arrested this off season. Along those lines, how Cincy found its way to drafting three "character issues" guys in April?s draft is beyond me, and that very well could bite them, as it has in the past. Finally, in regards to the defense, it is true that the Bengals defense was #5 overall last year, but it is critically important to note that "total defense" is a yards based stat. So, every time Ryan Fitzpatrick turned the ball over, or another failed drive gave the opponent great field position, the other team did not have many yards to travel to score, and that helped the defensive rating of the team quite a bit. So, in this view Cincy was not really a "Top 5" defense, and that does cast a bit of a shadow over their chances this season. The Vegas season win number on them is six, with the Over favored. I will not be playing this team at all, but will be watching with interest.
Chicago Bears *- There is a website (http://www.bearshistory.com/lore/chicagobearsquarterbacks.aspx) that chronicles the sad history of the signal caller position for the Bears. It is a good site to take a look at as browse some of the "greats" that have taken snaps for this team. Well, that legacy "should" be ended with the addition of Jay Cutler, a former Pro Bowler for Denver. He is the first "legit" QB to man the position in ages, and there was a reason he was a first round pick, shooting up the draft boards of many teams (the Bears included) after starring at Vanderbilt. He can make every throw, and will be the building block of this offense for years to come, unless of course the temper tantrum he threw when learning of the potential for a trade carries over to this season as well. Do not "think" that will happen, but one never knows, although a kid that got into Vanderbilt should no when to shut up. Chicago added two veteran offensive linemen in Kevin Shaffer and Orlando Pace, and got some WR help in the draft. Problem with taking the Bears OVER the season wins number of nine is the competitiveness between the top three teams in the NFC North, and I will leave that one alone. I do have a small play on the Bears to win the division, as there is some value there, I think.
Cleveland Browns *- Confusing off-season for Cleveland. Not totally sold on Eric Mangini, as he marks the THIRD Jets/Patriots retread this team has had, and none of the first three worked out all that well. On the field, they lost a talent but may have pulled an "addition by subtraction" move in jettisoning Kellen Winslow III, did manage to, pardon the pun, "hang on" to Braylon Edwards, and added some talent in the draft that will help long term. Do not think Cleveland will improve dramatically this season regardless of which QB wins the job, but hopefully (I am a Browns fan) things will get better at some point. The total on season wins is six, and if anything I would play the Under, but it is not a real strong opinion.
Dallas Cowboys *- In the new age world dominated by text messages, I only have three words, or in this case letters, to describe the Dallas draft, and those are WTF? Every time I look at this draft class I try to put together some evidence that a plan was in place, but I am not sure even Gil Grissom could solve this one. There is just no rhyme nor reason to this haul, other than the weak utterances afterwards about this dozen-player class providing a great boost to the special teams. That is a riot, as most of these guys are Raider-esque workout warriors, and that is not likely to translate well into on the field performance. Also, remember when the Raiders picked Sebastian Janikowski and the punter in the same draft? How did that work for them? This was worse than that! With a coach like Wade Phillips, the Cowboys need the BEST players, not middle of the road ones, and this draft did not help. Also, do not forget that TO is no longer in Big D, and that the biggest off-season free agent acquisition in Gerald Sensabaugh. Seriously? Finally, the situation with their brand new practice facility put the finishing touches on a terrible summer. In retrospect, maybe this should not be a surprise, as remember that the Pokes were just demolished in what was supposed to be a highly emotional final effort at Texas Stadium, and the prospects at this point do not look good for a great opening in Arlington either. Best thing to come out of this summer is that Romo has two less (wink) "distractions" to worry about, and I am NOT talking about Terrell Owens! As hot as that woman is, quite telling two high profile guys have given her the heave ho. As for football, the season win number for the Pokes is 9.5 with a shade to the Over, but I have a Under ticket in my pocket right now and very well might get more as the season gets closer, especially since the rest of the division, most notably the Eagles, has gotten better. UNDER!!!!
Denver Broncos - Broncos are a popular team to fade here in Vegas in regards to season wins, but I actually think they are undervalued with a total of seven, and I have already bet them Over that number and will probably get some more as things draw closer. Consider that Kyle Orton is 21-8 in his last 29 games as a starter, a .724 winning percentage that many would be quite happy with. He is not as potentially dynamic as Cutler, but he will be fine here, as he has weapons on this team that he could only dream of in Chicago. My view is that the Orton/Cutler deal was a Win for both teams, and I expect both QB?s to do well. I also seem to be in the overwhelming minority in that I liked the Denver draft and think Knowshon Moreno will thrive, just like other * less talented * runners have in the Mile High city. The switch to new schemes will hurt early on, but they have winnable games early so I do not think it will be a major disaster in the first quarter of the season. This is a team to watch and make some money on.
Detroit Lions *- Ah, the Lions. Their last regular season win came on December 23rd, 2007, and little did the fans of the Honolulu Blue think that would be the last Christmas gift they would get from this team in a long time. The drought may continue for a while this season, as the Lions are double digit dogs to the Saints in the first week of the season, but they are not going to go 0-16 again. (As an aside, preseason WILL mean something to this team, especially the first game, so be ready to take the Lions as soon as the line comes out that first week against the Falcons.) I think Matthew Stafford will be a good player, they got him a hell of a TE in Brandon Pettigrew, and did not ignore the defense, tabbing Louis Delmas with the first pick in the second round. Not ready to print Super Bowl tickets, but this is an improved team, and I look for them to eclipse the season win total of 4.5.
Green Bay Packers *- Before I get to anything else, I just LOVE the Packers and Bears to go OVER the total in Week One of the season. Chicago will have an improved offense with Cutler, as should Green Bay now that Aaron Rodgers is firmly planted as the starter and did not have an off season of distraction in regards to his role. The other reason I like the Over is that Green Bay is converting to a 3-4 scheme on defense, and it typically takes a while to make such a switch. Provided the weather is not abysmal, the Over in that game might be my biggest bet of the opening week of the season. Not overwhelmed with the Packers? draft * I give it a C - and I have them pegged for about eight wins, which is right around the season wins number, so no action in that regard for me.
Houston Texans *- With the almost immediate success of the Panthers and the Jaguars in 1996 (each made the conference championship game) the NFL vowed to make things harder on expansion teams, and the Texans and Browns have certainly proved that to be true. I do really like that the Texans have done this off season, and with a season win total of 8.5 the folks in Vegas think this could be the year that Houston finally achieves a winning record. Free agency brought DE Antonio Smith, and that will help Mario Williams as that will take some pressure off of him. Top draftee Bryan Cushing will also help in that regard, and they did an excellent job in getting value at the back end of the draft as well. If Matt Schaub manages to stay healthy these guys do have a shot, but now that Sage Rosenfels is no longer around to provide a veteran buffer and Schaub has not shown an ability to play 16 games, have to stay away from this one, especially since they are in a tough division.
Indianapolis Colts *- New faces on the coaching staff lend something not often found to the Colts? puzzle; uncertainty. Tony Dungy is gone and much of his staff has moved on as well. Star Peyton Manning has been rather vocal about not being all that happy with the changes, but once camp starts and everyone gets comfortable, all of that stuff should be water under the bridge. Still, not terribly impressed with the draft as I think Donald Brown might be something else rare for the Colts, a bust. Just never truly impressed by him in college despite gaudy stats, as the competition level just was not there. Rest of the draft not noteworthy at all, and while certainly Indy has a chance to do very well this year, cannot shake feeling that the window will be closed (with this cast) in the next year or two. The season win total for the Colts is ten, and while I am not going to be playing this one way or the other, the only way I could go would be the Under.
Jacksonville Jaguars *- Excellent draft for the team, as top pick Eugene Monroe (OT) will be a stalwart on the offensive line for years, and they also got OT Eben Britton from Arizona in the second round. With the free agent addition of Tra Thomas, the Jags O-Line certainly has teeth now. Really like two small school kids the team drafted, as Derek Cox (William & Mary) and Rashard Jennings (Liberty) could turn out to be very solid pros. Team also added Mike Thomas in the draft as well as Torry Holt in free agency to help the pass catching unit. Remember, this team went deep into the playoffs just two years ago, and with better health and better depth, there is a real good chance this group could be a pleasant surprise this year, and to these eyes there is value in Over 8 wins.
Kansas City Chiefs -* The best looking, and most football savvy, cocktail waitress at my favorite Vegas casino is a HUGE Chiefs fan, and as such I hate to do this to you Katie, but things do not look good for this team this year. Not only is the face of the franchise * TE Tony Gonzalez now a Falcon, but they have given the keys to the kingdom to a player in Matt Cassel that is now very much out of the incubator that was New England last year. Cassel had zero expectations last year and played with Randy Moss in his huddle and Bill Belichick in his ear. None of those factors will be in effect this season, and he now has a huge contract to live up to as well. Aside from Cassel, Chiefs are going through scheme and formation changes on both sides of the ball, and are not exactly blessed with great talent to start with. The season win total for this team is six, and I will take the Under, as a the best case scenario for KC in my mind is a half dozen wins, and if that happens will take the push, but this is one I expect to win, as 5-11 or 4-12 seems much more plausible.
With training camps open or about to open, it is time to take a look at how the offseason has treated each NFL team. Some of these musings will deal with the coach, some the draft/free agency, and others (for a certain team with a star on its helmet) the utter football ineptitude of the owner. All of them will take a look at the Vegas number on season wins, and tell of a play I have already made or will make on each team.
Here?s a closer look at the first 16 clubs?
Arizona Cardinals - Not terribly impressed with the draft, as Beanie Wells has too many question marks for me, but there is still a good deal of talent on this team, and would be surprised if they fell off the map. Defending NFC Champ not getting any love in Vegas, as the Over/Under on their season wins is nine, with the Under being favored in most houses. In a division that still has rebuilding to do (Rams and Niners not up to snuff yet in this view), I would be surprised if the Cards do not win at least four, and with a split against Seattle five, division games, getting them more than halfway to this win total. I will be playing the Over.
Atlanta Falcons - * Former Dirty Birds surprised a ton of people, myself included, last season, by making a playoff run. Now the challenge for Mike Smith and his team is to keep it going, and with a season win total of eight and a half (shaded Over), there is skepticism as to whether or not they will get the job done. I will not be playing Atlanta season wins one way or the other, but with an off season of opposing defensive coordinators studying Matt Ryan and a draft class that was 88% comprised on defense, I will be looking at the Under on their games, especially in the first part of the season. I do already have my ticket on Under 42.5 for the first game against the Dolphins.
Baltimore Ravens -* One of my friends here in Vegas, someone I have a great deal of respect for, was all over the Ravens last season, and we had spirited discussions about it for most of the off season. He was proven correct, but this year the feeling is not as strong for him, and, again, we disagree, as this looks like a very solid team to me, one that could win ten games and thus go Over the Vegas total on their season wins, which is nine and a half in most spot. I will not be betting it since my projection of ten is just above the total, but I certainly do lean with the Over. While not overwhelming, the draft did serve to replenish the depth on the team and infuse some much-needed youth. One other note is that I think the Ravens will be an excellent preseason team, as depth wins preseason games and there are few teams that can rival the Ravens in that area.
Buffalo Bills *- Initial season win numbers for the Bills were either eight or seven and a half, depending on where you shopped. I did not, and am not, going to get involved with this prop since my number is right in line with that of Vegas, but I do know that one well respected Vegas linesmaker thinks the Bills can win ten games this year, an opinion based on his great faith in what Trent Edwards will do now that he has the chance to throw to what he called (referencing Terrell Owens and Lee Evans) "the best pair of WR?s in the AFC." I think that might be a little strong, as the Steelers and Colts might have something to say about that distinction, but this will be a duo to be reckoned with. I hope for Bills fans that Trent Edwards is able to get along with Owens, and he just might be the perfect fit, as he not a big ego guy like TO predecessors Romo, Garcia, and McNabb, so maybe things will work out. Buffalo?s Season Win number is 7.5 with a slight shade to the Over. The Bills won seven games last year and could improve, but I do not share the confidence of the fellow I reference above. I am going to sit this one out.
Carolina Panthers -* I like this team. Julius Peppers is back, they got him some help on the DL in the form or top draft choice Everette Brown, and since teams cannot double team both of them, I look for the Cats to get solid pressure on opposing QB?s this season. When the defense is playing well and creating turnovers, Jake Delhomme, Steve Steve and the offense is more than capable of getting the job done. Yes, Delhomme is streaky, but he has led a team to a Super Bowl, and while that might be a little much to ask of this Cats team, I do think they can win more than nine games, and the Over is as high as +145 in some spots. One final note about my philosophy on season wins, and that is that I prefer to play into even numbers unless I am EXTREMELY strong on one side. The reason is simple, as a push is better than a loss, and with the even numbers there is one more "out" for a result that is acceptable. I have played this Over but am actually mad that I acted so early, as I could have gotten a better price than the +120 that is printed on my ticket.
Cincinnati Bengals *- One very respected Vegas sharp, one that has his own special "place" in Vegas lore, is very high on the Bengals this season, and rumor has it he has bet the striped helmets in every game this season, as one of the locals oriented sportsbooks has posted lines on the entire season. This guy is usually very good you do not win the Hilton by accident - and has his reasons for liking the team (mostly centered around the return to health of Carson Palmer and a seemingly * more on that later * stout defense), but I am going to withhold judgement until seeing how many other Bengals get arrested this off season. Along those lines, how Cincy found its way to drafting three "character issues" guys in April?s draft is beyond me, and that very well could bite them, as it has in the past. Finally, in regards to the defense, it is true that the Bengals defense was #5 overall last year, but it is critically important to note that "total defense" is a yards based stat. So, every time Ryan Fitzpatrick turned the ball over, or another failed drive gave the opponent great field position, the other team did not have many yards to travel to score, and that helped the defensive rating of the team quite a bit. So, in this view Cincy was not really a "Top 5" defense, and that does cast a bit of a shadow over their chances this season. The Vegas season win number on them is six, with the Over favored. I will not be playing this team at all, but will be watching with interest.
Chicago Bears *- There is a website (http://www.bearshistory.com/lore/chicagobearsquarterbacks.aspx) that chronicles the sad history of the signal caller position for the Bears. It is a good site to take a look at as browse some of the "greats" that have taken snaps for this team. Well, that legacy "should" be ended with the addition of Jay Cutler, a former Pro Bowler for Denver. He is the first "legit" QB to man the position in ages, and there was a reason he was a first round pick, shooting up the draft boards of many teams (the Bears included) after starring at Vanderbilt. He can make every throw, and will be the building block of this offense for years to come, unless of course the temper tantrum he threw when learning of the potential for a trade carries over to this season as well. Do not "think" that will happen, but one never knows, although a kid that got into Vanderbilt should no when to shut up. Chicago added two veteran offensive linemen in Kevin Shaffer and Orlando Pace, and got some WR help in the draft. Problem with taking the Bears OVER the season wins number of nine is the competitiveness between the top three teams in the NFC North, and I will leave that one alone. I do have a small play on the Bears to win the division, as there is some value there, I think.
Cleveland Browns *- Confusing off-season for Cleveland. Not totally sold on Eric Mangini, as he marks the THIRD Jets/Patriots retread this team has had, and none of the first three worked out all that well. On the field, they lost a talent but may have pulled an "addition by subtraction" move in jettisoning Kellen Winslow III, did manage to, pardon the pun, "hang on" to Braylon Edwards, and added some talent in the draft that will help long term. Do not think Cleveland will improve dramatically this season regardless of which QB wins the job, but hopefully (I am a Browns fan) things will get better at some point. The total on season wins is six, and if anything I would play the Under, but it is not a real strong opinion.
Dallas Cowboys *- In the new age world dominated by text messages, I only have three words, or in this case letters, to describe the Dallas draft, and those are WTF? Every time I look at this draft class I try to put together some evidence that a plan was in place, but I am not sure even Gil Grissom could solve this one. There is just no rhyme nor reason to this haul, other than the weak utterances afterwards about this dozen-player class providing a great boost to the special teams. That is a riot, as most of these guys are Raider-esque workout warriors, and that is not likely to translate well into on the field performance. Also, remember when the Raiders picked Sebastian Janikowski and the punter in the same draft? How did that work for them? This was worse than that! With a coach like Wade Phillips, the Cowboys need the BEST players, not middle of the road ones, and this draft did not help. Also, do not forget that TO is no longer in Big D, and that the biggest off-season free agent acquisition in Gerald Sensabaugh. Seriously? Finally, the situation with their brand new practice facility put the finishing touches on a terrible summer. In retrospect, maybe this should not be a surprise, as remember that the Pokes were just demolished in what was supposed to be a highly emotional final effort at Texas Stadium, and the prospects at this point do not look good for a great opening in Arlington either. Best thing to come out of this summer is that Romo has two less (wink) "distractions" to worry about, and I am NOT talking about Terrell Owens! As hot as that woman is, quite telling two high profile guys have given her the heave ho. As for football, the season win number for the Pokes is 9.5 with a shade to the Over, but I have a Under ticket in my pocket right now and very well might get more as the season gets closer, especially since the rest of the division, most notably the Eagles, has gotten better. UNDER!!!!
Denver Broncos - Broncos are a popular team to fade here in Vegas in regards to season wins, but I actually think they are undervalued with a total of seven, and I have already bet them Over that number and will probably get some more as things draw closer. Consider that Kyle Orton is 21-8 in his last 29 games as a starter, a .724 winning percentage that many would be quite happy with. He is not as potentially dynamic as Cutler, but he will be fine here, as he has weapons on this team that he could only dream of in Chicago. My view is that the Orton/Cutler deal was a Win for both teams, and I expect both QB?s to do well. I also seem to be in the overwhelming minority in that I liked the Denver draft and think Knowshon Moreno will thrive, just like other * less talented * runners have in the Mile High city. The switch to new schemes will hurt early on, but they have winnable games early so I do not think it will be a major disaster in the first quarter of the season. This is a team to watch and make some money on.
Detroit Lions *- Ah, the Lions. Their last regular season win came on December 23rd, 2007, and little did the fans of the Honolulu Blue think that would be the last Christmas gift they would get from this team in a long time. The drought may continue for a while this season, as the Lions are double digit dogs to the Saints in the first week of the season, but they are not going to go 0-16 again. (As an aside, preseason WILL mean something to this team, especially the first game, so be ready to take the Lions as soon as the line comes out that first week against the Falcons.) I think Matthew Stafford will be a good player, they got him a hell of a TE in Brandon Pettigrew, and did not ignore the defense, tabbing Louis Delmas with the first pick in the second round. Not ready to print Super Bowl tickets, but this is an improved team, and I look for them to eclipse the season win total of 4.5.
Green Bay Packers *- Before I get to anything else, I just LOVE the Packers and Bears to go OVER the total in Week One of the season. Chicago will have an improved offense with Cutler, as should Green Bay now that Aaron Rodgers is firmly planted as the starter and did not have an off season of distraction in regards to his role. The other reason I like the Over is that Green Bay is converting to a 3-4 scheme on defense, and it typically takes a while to make such a switch. Provided the weather is not abysmal, the Over in that game might be my biggest bet of the opening week of the season. Not overwhelmed with the Packers? draft * I give it a C - and I have them pegged for about eight wins, which is right around the season wins number, so no action in that regard for me.
Houston Texans *- With the almost immediate success of the Panthers and the Jaguars in 1996 (each made the conference championship game) the NFL vowed to make things harder on expansion teams, and the Texans and Browns have certainly proved that to be true. I do really like that the Texans have done this off season, and with a season win total of 8.5 the folks in Vegas think this could be the year that Houston finally achieves a winning record. Free agency brought DE Antonio Smith, and that will help Mario Williams as that will take some pressure off of him. Top draftee Bryan Cushing will also help in that regard, and they did an excellent job in getting value at the back end of the draft as well. If Matt Schaub manages to stay healthy these guys do have a shot, but now that Sage Rosenfels is no longer around to provide a veteran buffer and Schaub has not shown an ability to play 16 games, have to stay away from this one, especially since they are in a tough division.
Indianapolis Colts *- New faces on the coaching staff lend something not often found to the Colts? puzzle; uncertainty. Tony Dungy is gone and much of his staff has moved on as well. Star Peyton Manning has been rather vocal about not being all that happy with the changes, but once camp starts and everyone gets comfortable, all of that stuff should be water under the bridge. Still, not terribly impressed with the draft as I think Donald Brown might be something else rare for the Colts, a bust. Just never truly impressed by him in college despite gaudy stats, as the competition level just was not there. Rest of the draft not noteworthy at all, and while certainly Indy has a chance to do very well this year, cannot shake feeling that the window will be closed (with this cast) in the next year or two. The season win total for the Colts is ten, and while I am not going to be playing this one way or the other, the only way I could go would be the Under.
Jacksonville Jaguars *- Excellent draft for the team, as top pick Eugene Monroe (OT) will be a stalwart on the offensive line for years, and they also got OT Eben Britton from Arizona in the second round. With the free agent addition of Tra Thomas, the Jags O-Line certainly has teeth now. Really like two small school kids the team drafted, as Derek Cox (William & Mary) and Rashard Jennings (Liberty) could turn out to be very solid pros. Team also added Mike Thomas in the draft as well as Torry Holt in free agency to help the pass catching unit. Remember, this team went deep into the playoffs just two years ago, and with better health and better depth, there is a real good chance this group could be a pleasant surprise this year, and to these eyes there is value in Over 8 wins.
Kansas City Chiefs -* The best looking, and most football savvy, cocktail waitress at my favorite Vegas casino is a HUGE Chiefs fan, and as such I hate to do this to you Katie, but things do not look good for this team this year. Not only is the face of the franchise * TE Tony Gonzalez now a Falcon, but they have given the keys to the kingdom to a player in Matt Cassel that is now very much out of the incubator that was New England last year. Cassel had zero expectations last year and played with Randy Moss in his huddle and Bill Belichick in his ear. None of those factors will be in effect this season, and he now has a huge contract to live up to as well. Aside from Cassel, Chiefs are going through scheme and formation changes on both sides of the ball, and are not exactly blessed with great talent to start with. The season win total for this team is six, and I will take the Under, as a the best case scenario for KC in my mind is a half dozen wins, and if that happens will take the push, but this is one I expect to win, as 5-11 or 4-12 seems much more plausible.
