New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Preview:
Is there any team in football playing better than the Patriots right now? Their running game has reemerged since the return of Dillon and Faulk. The result has been a more balanced offensive attack which has allowed pressure to be taken off Brady and the passing game. As impressive as their offense has recently been, their second half defensive surge has been even more impressive. The return of some of their key players in their front seven has made the Patriots one of the hardest defenses to run against. Although their secondary still has holes that can be exploited, their improving pass rush has done a good job recently masking those holes. It was just a month ago that critics were contemplating whether the Patriots were playoff worthy. They now have the fourth seed all but wrapped up, and if all goes well, they can even move up to the third seed and avoid playing the Colts in the second round of the playoffs. Tonight they face an easy team they manhandled less than a month ago. With the fourth seed all but a certainty, how much effort will the Patriots put forth? If they don?t play to their ability, what unit of theirs will be the more likely one to lie down?
The Jets disappointing season is all but done. They were never able to overcome the early season injury to Pennington. Not being able to find an adequate replacement not only prevented the Jets passing game from being effective, but also took away their running game. Their offenses inability to stay on the field put their defense in tough situations and made them vulnerable to burnout. Although their defense has done a solid job this year defending the pass, their undersized front seven has never really been able to stop the run. Although the Jets have only managed three wins this year, they have played hard for their coach. The Jets get the national spotlight against a divisional rival to showcase they are not a bunch of pushovers. Can the improving play of Bollinger combined with their second ranked pass defense be enough to overcome the World Champs, or are they simply outclassed to prevent an embarrassment in front of a national audience?
Play: Under 38
Comment:
Pros:
Although the Jets offense and Bollinger have shown some signs of improvement over the last couple of games, they are more than likely to run into a brick wall tonight, playing arguably the hottest defense in football. A defense that held them to only 3 points 3 games ago; and a defense that followed up that performance only allowing Buffalo 7 points and shutting out the Buccaneers in their last game. The only apparent weakness left on the Patriots defense is defending the second and third level passing game. However, the Jets lack the receivers to exploit that area, while Bollinger lacks the arm strength and pass protection to take advantage of this area as well. The improving Patriots pass rush will force Bollinger to have to chip away yards with a conservative passing game. The Jets are accustomed to this game plan, a game plan that takes a lot of time off the clock when effective. With the lack of fear in the Jets running game, the Patriots will be able to better focus on defending the pass and keeping everything in front of them. Billicek is a master at using exotic defensive coverage schemes to confuse young and experienced quarterbacks. Edwards knows this, and will utilize a conservative game plan for Bollinger that will use a lot of check down receivers in the flats and also combine it with a lot of max protections schemes. In order for the passing game to have somewhat of a chance, the Jets will have to use some kind of running game to avoid being one dimensional and allow the Patriots to tee off on Bollinger with a lot of blitzes. However, the Jets lack a consistent runner since the injury of Martin. Although Houston has showed some potential in the last couple of games, he needs to hit the second gear to be effective. The Jets reshuffled offensive line has done a poor job blocking against the better front sevens in the league. Combine that with the fact the Patriots run defense is playing as well as any unit in football, and I am expecting the Jets running game to be inefficient and only be used to keep the Jets from being overly predictable. The bottom line is the Jets offense is simply overmatched tonight against a much improved Patriots defense. Expect Bollinger to run into problems without the adequate help of the running game. In order for the Jets to move the ball, the will have to play within Bollinger?s means, implying a lot of long drives that utilize a grind it out running game and short passes that eat up clock.
The Patriots offense is also progressively getting better as the season closes. Dillon and Faulks return has allowed the Patriots offense to become more balanced and less predictable. Although this tends to lead to more points, it also tends to lead to longer drives. The Jets have one of the best pass defenses in football. This leads me to believe the Patriots will stay committed to the running game as much as possible and try to wear down the Jets undersized front seven. Dillon lacks the burst he once had, and will be forced to grind out yards. He will also be supplemented with Faulk in order to achieve their goal of wearing down the Jets front seven. Although Brady might be the hottest quarterback in football, he is up against an elite pass defense and two corners that know him well. Expect him to try to avoid throwing to Law and Barret?s side, and attack the inner hashes with his tight ends, slot receiver and running backs. This will more than likely keep the ball in front of the Jets zone, and lead to the Patriots utilizing a more conservative passing game, and rely on the run to beat the Jets. One has to wonder how much effort the Patriots offense will put forth now that they all but have been assured of the fourth seed. They more than likely wont open up the playbook and allow their playoff opponent to better prepare for some of the better plays. They also will try to prevent injuries, especially one to Brady. This leads me to believe they will try to avoid Brady from getting hit often. The best way to avoid this is to run and use short step drop backs and short passes. The longer passes mean longer time in the pocket. The longer time he spends in the pocket, the greater the chance for injury. Weather might also play a factor. If it is raining, a more conservative game plan might be employed by both teams.
Cons:
Both offenses are playing their best football right now. This factor alone makes this bet risky. Houston seems to have replaced Martin rather well. He also provides the Jets with big play ability Martin now lacks. Bollinger is also playing much better the last couple of weeks. He is now able to better read opposing defenses. This has resulted in the Jets to become more willing to open up the playbook and try more aggressive passing plays. With nothing to loss, and wanting to get a better feel of Bollinger?s potential, don?t be surprised if you see the Jets offense take a lot more chances than they normally would. Whether these plays work or not, it will favor the over. Bollinger also got to see the Patriots defense just three weeks ago. This will allow him to be better prepared and know what to expect. The Patriots offense is also gelling right now, while the Jets front sevens seems absolutely finished. The Jets likelihood of being unable to stop the run will force them to stack the box. This will make them extremely vulnerable in defending the deep play and Brady. I am not expecting the same defensive performance that held the Patriots to only 16 points three weeks ago.
Conclusion:
Divisional rivalries often make good investments for under bettors. The level of intensity increases to a near playoff level, especially when played on national television. Less than a month ago, these teams combined to put up 19 points on the board. The Jets lack the talent to capitalize on the Patriots one defensive weakness, while lacking a red zone threat to turn consistently turn their better drives into touchdowns. The best way to attack the Jets is through the ground. Expect a heavy dose of running and short passes from the Patriots as they will play it safe until playoff time. There are too many indicators that are pointing to the under for me not to take the bet. I like the under here.
Preview:
Is there any team in football playing better than the Patriots right now? Their running game has reemerged since the return of Dillon and Faulk. The result has been a more balanced offensive attack which has allowed pressure to be taken off Brady and the passing game. As impressive as their offense has recently been, their second half defensive surge has been even more impressive. The return of some of their key players in their front seven has made the Patriots one of the hardest defenses to run against. Although their secondary still has holes that can be exploited, their improving pass rush has done a good job recently masking those holes. It was just a month ago that critics were contemplating whether the Patriots were playoff worthy. They now have the fourth seed all but wrapped up, and if all goes well, they can even move up to the third seed and avoid playing the Colts in the second round of the playoffs. Tonight they face an easy team they manhandled less than a month ago. With the fourth seed all but a certainty, how much effort will the Patriots put forth? If they don?t play to their ability, what unit of theirs will be the more likely one to lie down?
The Jets disappointing season is all but done. They were never able to overcome the early season injury to Pennington. Not being able to find an adequate replacement not only prevented the Jets passing game from being effective, but also took away their running game. Their offenses inability to stay on the field put their defense in tough situations and made them vulnerable to burnout. Although their defense has done a solid job this year defending the pass, their undersized front seven has never really been able to stop the run. Although the Jets have only managed three wins this year, they have played hard for their coach. The Jets get the national spotlight against a divisional rival to showcase they are not a bunch of pushovers. Can the improving play of Bollinger combined with their second ranked pass defense be enough to overcome the World Champs, or are they simply outclassed to prevent an embarrassment in front of a national audience?
Play: Under 38
Comment:
Pros:
Although the Jets offense and Bollinger have shown some signs of improvement over the last couple of games, they are more than likely to run into a brick wall tonight, playing arguably the hottest defense in football. A defense that held them to only 3 points 3 games ago; and a defense that followed up that performance only allowing Buffalo 7 points and shutting out the Buccaneers in their last game. The only apparent weakness left on the Patriots defense is defending the second and third level passing game. However, the Jets lack the receivers to exploit that area, while Bollinger lacks the arm strength and pass protection to take advantage of this area as well. The improving Patriots pass rush will force Bollinger to have to chip away yards with a conservative passing game. The Jets are accustomed to this game plan, a game plan that takes a lot of time off the clock when effective. With the lack of fear in the Jets running game, the Patriots will be able to better focus on defending the pass and keeping everything in front of them. Billicek is a master at using exotic defensive coverage schemes to confuse young and experienced quarterbacks. Edwards knows this, and will utilize a conservative game plan for Bollinger that will use a lot of check down receivers in the flats and also combine it with a lot of max protections schemes. In order for the passing game to have somewhat of a chance, the Jets will have to use some kind of running game to avoid being one dimensional and allow the Patriots to tee off on Bollinger with a lot of blitzes. However, the Jets lack a consistent runner since the injury of Martin. Although Houston has showed some potential in the last couple of games, he needs to hit the second gear to be effective. The Jets reshuffled offensive line has done a poor job blocking against the better front sevens in the league. Combine that with the fact the Patriots run defense is playing as well as any unit in football, and I am expecting the Jets running game to be inefficient and only be used to keep the Jets from being overly predictable. The bottom line is the Jets offense is simply overmatched tonight against a much improved Patriots defense. Expect Bollinger to run into problems without the adequate help of the running game. In order for the Jets to move the ball, the will have to play within Bollinger?s means, implying a lot of long drives that utilize a grind it out running game and short passes that eat up clock.
The Patriots offense is also progressively getting better as the season closes. Dillon and Faulks return has allowed the Patriots offense to become more balanced and less predictable. Although this tends to lead to more points, it also tends to lead to longer drives. The Jets have one of the best pass defenses in football. This leads me to believe the Patriots will stay committed to the running game as much as possible and try to wear down the Jets undersized front seven. Dillon lacks the burst he once had, and will be forced to grind out yards. He will also be supplemented with Faulk in order to achieve their goal of wearing down the Jets front seven. Although Brady might be the hottest quarterback in football, he is up against an elite pass defense and two corners that know him well. Expect him to try to avoid throwing to Law and Barret?s side, and attack the inner hashes with his tight ends, slot receiver and running backs. This will more than likely keep the ball in front of the Jets zone, and lead to the Patriots utilizing a more conservative passing game, and rely on the run to beat the Jets. One has to wonder how much effort the Patriots offense will put forth now that they all but have been assured of the fourth seed. They more than likely wont open up the playbook and allow their playoff opponent to better prepare for some of the better plays. They also will try to prevent injuries, especially one to Brady. This leads me to believe they will try to avoid Brady from getting hit often. The best way to avoid this is to run and use short step drop backs and short passes. The longer passes mean longer time in the pocket. The longer time he spends in the pocket, the greater the chance for injury. Weather might also play a factor. If it is raining, a more conservative game plan might be employed by both teams.
Cons:
Both offenses are playing their best football right now. This factor alone makes this bet risky. Houston seems to have replaced Martin rather well. He also provides the Jets with big play ability Martin now lacks. Bollinger is also playing much better the last couple of weeks. He is now able to better read opposing defenses. This has resulted in the Jets to become more willing to open up the playbook and try more aggressive passing plays. With nothing to loss, and wanting to get a better feel of Bollinger?s potential, don?t be surprised if you see the Jets offense take a lot more chances than they normally would. Whether these plays work or not, it will favor the over. Bollinger also got to see the Patriots defense just three weeks ago. This will allow him to be better prepared and know what to expect. The Patriots offense is also gelling right now, while the Jets front sevens seems absolutely finished. The Jets likelihood of being unable to stop the run will force them to stack the box. This will make them extremely vulnerable in defending the deep play and Brady. I am not expecting the same defensive performance that held the Patriots to only 16 points three weeks ago.
Conclusion:
Divisional rivalries often make good investments for under bettors. The level of intensity increases to a near playoff level, especially when played on national television. Less than a month ago, these teams combined to put up 19 points on the board. The Jets lack the talent to capitalize on the Patriots one defensive weakness, while lacking a red zone threat to turn consistently turn their better drives into touchdowns. The best way to attack the Jets is through the ground. Expect a heavy dose of running and short passes from the Patriots as they will play it safe until playoff time. There are too many indicators that are pointing to the under for me not to take the bet. I like the under here.
GL tonight and I hope you continue to post share throughout the playoffs :mj14: