NFL Monday Night

zealot

Vegas res
Forum Member
Dec 1, 2010
1,002
11
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Las Vegas, NV
6-1 +$890 yesterday

9-2 +$1,990 for the season


I've had a great start to the season and I will not be deterred when tonight's game concludes.


The ONLY reason for my plays tonight is with regard to public betting stats for both the side and the total. Most books here in Vegas opened with GB -3.5 and the O/U at 47.5. Those same books are now offering GB -3 (-115) and have the O/U set at 46. Some books also have GB -3 (-125) and/or GB -3 EV. Several books are adding or subtracting juice to entice the bettor to side with GB.

With that said, MadJackers here can vouch that there are two sports that I am very knowledgeable about and follow very closely. Those two sports are the NBA and the NFL. I have only been betting for three years now but my betting patterns and wager amounts/types follow very strict systems that I stick to consistently throughout each season. I have weeded through and picked out the strategies that I use every season to help produce high winning margin, great W-L records and nice profits. I am a huge advocate for doing my homework on public numbers and reverse line movements when applicable. This does not mean that I base my bets purely off of this information as I still use my head on whether or not the public weight and line movement will be the single most determining factor in a specific bet.

There is one thing that remains and will always remain constant when it comes to sports betting here in Vegas: VEGAS DOES NOT LOSE. Monday night football games are usually one of the best days to focus on public betting weight and line movement. Bettors always spend all day Monday trying to talk themselves out of taking the clear cut favorite for MNF so that they can make up for their horrible Sunday losses. MNF is always used as a bail-out plan and bettors love siding with the favorite.

Now that's it clear:

77% are on Green Bay ATS
65% are on the Over
69% are on Green Bay ML

Obviously one of two things will happen tonight.

1) If Green Bay wins, Vegas will lose their ass on this game (much like they did week 1 when the Patriots easily covered the 6 against the Titans).

2) Seattle covers, the sharps win their bets, the public lose their bets, and Vegas smiles and waits to collect more money from the public on Thursday night.

I am going to say it's the latter of the two tonight. This is a perfect situational play to take an underrated Seahawks team getting points at home against a publicly loved Green Bay Super Bowl team.

I may lose all of my plays tonight or I may win all of my plays tonight. Regardless of what happens, I will ALWAYS continue to use my strategies without hesitation. You're going to win some and lose some but I will take the subliminal advice that Vegas is giving to me tonight.

Stay true to your betting strategies and it will work out.

My plays:

Seattle Seahawks +3.5 $220/$200
Seattle Seahawks ML +155 $100/$155
Green Bay/Seattle under 46 $220/$200
Seattle Seahawks 1H +2.5 $110/$100
Two team parlay - Seattle Seahawks +3.5 and under 46 - $100/$260
Two team 7 point teaser - Seattle Seahawks +10.5 and under 53 - $300/$230


And on the side, I have two parlays that have Seattle at the end of each of them. One is a 5-teamer and the other is a 6-teamer. I did not post those parlays though so I will not count them as W-L.

As always, let's get this! :0074
 

zealot

Vegas res
Forum Member
Dec 1, 2010
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Las Vegas, NV
Feel the same way about the game tonight. Parlayed +3.5/Under as well.

Keep up the good work and GL
Thanks :0074

Your going to hate Aaron Rodgers at the end of this game. Lol.

Gl
Au contraire mon fr?re. Tonight will be a paltry display much like the first game against San Francisco.

The NFC West isn't a joke anymore. They are for real and have some nasty talent within the division. NFC West defenses are second-to-none and we will see that tonight.

Even if Rodgers goes off tonight and I lose every bet that I made on tonight's game I will still make the same plays week in and week out because one game does not scare me off from following patterns.

If Seattle loses this game tonight the score will be 21-20.

If Seattle wins this game tonight the score will be 24-20.

GL Z... Where do you get your percentages?
Thanks mate! My main source for percentages in iOdds. However, I also use percentages from VegasInsider and ScoresandsOdds and find the mean of the three percentages.
 

REDSKIN

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 21, 2008
494
7
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Hey Z, thanks for posting all the good info. You're def an asset to the forum and I always read your posts. I usually play alot of reverse line moves and public fades and I've noticed that there are games where the Vegas free money does come into play. I think in looking at my plays yesterday, Minny, Tenn, Oak, under SD, over Pitts and over Balt, I think its safe to say that the sharp side did really well yesterday. Logic tells us that if the sharps always won and the public always lost, there really wouldn't be a'lot of public bettors left and all of us who play the sharp side could quit our day jobs. I think the sharpest bettors are the ones who can recognize when its a "free money play" and take the other side or just leave it alone. I've watched this line since it came out and it's setting up perfect for the sharp side. We all know about the "Home dog on Monday night", and just like you noted, the line opened up at 3.5 and now it's down to 3 with what I show as 73% on the Pack. I was loving the fact that the total dropped all the way down to 44 from 47.5 with more bets comng in on the over but now there's a bit of a buy back going on or the sharps stopped hitting the under and the offshore is now back up to 45.5. I'm thinking that after a great day yesterday, this might be one of those games to just stay away from. I also noticed a few well respected cappers on this site that are on GBay and these are guys who know all about reverse line moves and the Home Dog on Monday night. I'll probably make a small play on the under just to have a little action on it but I won't make that call until about 10 mins before the kickoff. Good luck tonight on your plays, hope you continue to have a great year.
 

Jwilzzz

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Mar 24, 2010
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I agree with you 100% but if you already have Seattle to close out a 5 and 6 teamer, why not hedge with gb?
 

zealot

Vegas res
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Dec 1, 2010
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I agree with you 100% but if you already have Seattle to close out a 5 and 6 teamer, why not hedge with gb?
That's how much faith I have in SEA tonight. :toast:

That and the fact that each of the parlays were for $5 each. I'll let both parlays ride without hedging because I have faith in the emerald and neon yellow tonight.

Hey Z, thanks for posting all the good info. You're def an asset to the forum and I always read your posts. I'm thinking that after a great day yesterday, this might be one of those games to just stay away from. I also noticed a few well respected cappers on this site that are on GBay and these are guys who know all about reverse line moves and the Home Dog on Monday night. I'll probably make a small play on the under just to have a little action on it but I won't make that call until about 10 mins before the kickoff. Good luck tonight on your plays, hope you continue to have a great year.
Thanks Red. Appreciate the kind words. I just have that feeling that SEA is the play tonight. Too much love for GB. GL!
 

LonghornMM

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Oct 30, 2003
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I agree with you Zealot. I'm on the under 47 only, but if I played a side, I would take Seattle. I think Seattle and the under is a good teaser bet.
 

Jwilzzz

Registered User
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Mar 24, 2010
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One of the crazier and Shittier games I've ever watched, but congrats anyway
 

zealot

Vegas res
Forum Member
Dec 1, 2010
1,002
11
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Las Vegas, NV
What did I tell everyone earlier today?

There is one thing that remains and will always remain constant when it comes to sports betting here in Vegas: VEGAS DOES NOT LOSE.

Yes, it was of course an absolutely horrible call that should've never been ruled a touchdown. BUT, like I said earlier...IT IS VERY RARE THAT VEGAS LOSES. Vegas had the refs in their pocket and Vegas won a lot of money tonight. Vegas wins 90% of all bets that they want to. Don't fuck with Vegas.

I will take them any way that Vegas wants to give them to me!

6-0 +$1,145 today

15-2 +$3,135 for the season


:toast: to a perfect night!
 

MonsterNco

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 25, 2000
654
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Las Vegas
What did I tell everyone earlier today?



Yes, it was of course an absolutely horrible call that should've never been ruled a touchdown. BUT, like I said earlier...IT IS VERY RARE THAT VEGAS LOSES. Vegas had the refs in their pocket and Vegas won a lot of money tonight. Vegas wins 90% of all bets that they want to. Don't fuck with Vegas.

I will take them any way that Vegas wants to give them to me!

6-0 +$1,145 today

15-2 +$3,135 for the season


:toast: to a perfect night!


Right on Brother, Congrats!!
 

Theboundbook

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 16, 2002
32,998
25
0
55
Salt Lake City, Utah
6-1 +$890 yesterday

9-2 +$1,990 for the season


I've had a great start to the season and I will not be deterred when tonight's game concludes.


The ONLY reason for my plays tonight is with regard to public betting stats for both the side and the total. Most books here in Vegas opened with GB -3.5 and the O/U at 47.5. Those same books are now offering GB -3 (-115) and have the O/U set at 46. Some books also have GB -3 (-125) and/or GB -3 EV. Several books are adding or subtracting juice to entice the bettor to side with GB.

With that said, MadJackers here can vouch that there are two sports that I am very knowledgeable about and follow very closely. Those two sports are the NBA and the NFL. I have only been betting for three years now but my betting patterns and wager amounts/types follow very strict systems that I stick to consistently throughout each season. I have weeded through and picked out the strategies that I use every season to help produce high winning margin, great W-L records and nice profits. I am a huge advocate for doing my homework on public numbers and reverse line movements when applicable. This does not mean that I base my bets purely off of this information as I still use my head on whether or not the public weight and line movement will be the single most determining factor in a specific bet.

There is one thing that remains and will always remain constant when it comes to sports betting here in Vegas: VEGAS DOES NOT LOSE. Monday night football games are usually one of the best days to focus on public betting weight and line movement. Bettors always spend all day Monday trying to talk themselves out of taking the clear cut favorite for MNF so that they can make up for their horrible Sunday losses. MNF is always used as a bail-out plan and bettors love siding with the favorite.

Now that's it clear:

77% are on Green Bay ATS
65% are on the Over
69% are on Green Bay ML

Obviously one of two things will happen tonight.

1) If Green Bay wins, Vegas will lose their ass on this game (much like they did week 1 when the Patriots easily covered the 6 against the Titans).

2) Seattle covers, the sharps win their bets, the public lose their bets, and Vegas smiles and waits to collect more money from the public on Thursday night.

I am going to say it's the latter of the two tonight. This is a perfect situational play to take an underrated Seahawks team getting points at home against a publicly loved Green Bay Super Bowl team.

I may lose all of my plays tonight or I may win all of my plays tonight. Regardless of what happens, I will ALWAYS continue to use my strategies without hesitation. You're going to win some and lose some but I will take the subliminal advice that Vegas is giving to me tonight.

Stay true to your betting strategies and it will work out.

My plays:

Seattle Seahawks +3.5 $220/$200
Seattle Seahawks ML +155 $100/$155
Green Bay/Seattle under 46 $220/$200
Seattle Seahawks 1H +2.5 $110/$100
Two team parlay - Seattle Seahawks +3.5 and under 46 - $100/$260
Two team 7 point teaser - Seattle Seahawks +10.5 and under 53 - $300/$230


And on the side, I have two parlays that have Seattle at the end of each of them. One is a 5-teamer and the other is a 6-teamer. I did not post those parlays though so I will not count them as W-L.

As always, let's get this! :0074

JUST LIKE AN NBA "SCRIPT"... Tim Donaghy was right about it all and was totally set up... That book taught me how to win year after year since reading it in NBA and NFL... And YOU Had THE SCRIPT MEMORIZED BEFORE THE KICKOFF AND GOT PAID FOR A PERFECT PERFORMANCE!!!

CONGRATS!!! (I love to see that people believe like myself, (which broke my heart as a sports fan years ago, and now just treat NFL and NBA as business only), that many games are as fixed as DON KING'S FIGHTER'S WERE..... AND WILL BE...... AND VEGAS IS ENJOYING THE BENEFIT OF THESE "SCRUBS" as REFS... But beware this weekend; watch what the public does... if they EXPECT the refs to screw it up, THEY WONT... IMO, of course....

CONGRATS AGAIN ON THE SWEEP!!!
 
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