One week into the NFL regular season and perceptions are being formed.
The Lions? defense is better. The 49ers are improved with playmakers on offense. The Texans have a new coach but remain terrible. The Saints could surprise. The Packers are horrendous. The Buccaneers are in for a long season.
These observations are reflected in the Week 2 opening line and some of the early moves.
Hard to believe, but the Packers are home underdogs to the Saints. Prior to this past Sunday, Green Bay probably would have been -3 or -3 ? hosting New Orleans. But not after the Packers were shut out at home by Chicago, and the Saints looked good upsetting Cleveland.
Early money has moved New Orleans as high as -2 against Green Bay after linesmakers opened the Packers -1.
?Saying New Orleans would be a four-point favorite on a neutral field against Green Bay is something I don?t see,? says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. ?There?s a lot of overreaction to Week 1. As an oddsmaker, you have to be conscious of how the public is going to react when they see these teams for the first time.
?I hate to do it as an oddsmaker, because in my heart I know some of these teams aren?t as good or as bad as they showed, but you have to make adjustments based on what the public?s going to do.?
The public probably is going to lay 6 with Atlanta against Tampa Bay and go under the Lions-Bears total.
Based on how well the Falcons did against the Panthers and how the Bucs were shut out at home by the Ravens, oddsmakers opened Atlanta -6 hosting Tampa Bay.
Chris Simms may not be starting material, but taking six points with a playoff team in a division game against an inconsistent Falcons squad seems to present value.
?Sharp bettors will be all over Tampa Bay +6, but as an oddsmaker you can?t afford to make a favorite too small here because most of the parlay cards are going to be on the favorite, especially one that looked as good as Atlanta,? says Seba.
If Detroit?s defense didn?t look so good in holding the Seahawks to three field goals, the Lions-Bears total might have been 35. Taking that into play, linesmakers opened the total at 33. It?s currently down to 32, rare for a September game.
Oddsmakers also are taking into account 10 of Sunday?s 13 games going below the total. That?s the way bettors saw it, since bookmakers adjusted every total downward last week.
While the bookmakers lost on Week 1 totals, they still enjoyed an excellent first week. They won most of the decisions where there were big lines moves, including Miami-Pittsburgh, Buffalo-New England, Seattle-Detroit, Dallas-Jacksonville and San Francisco-Arizona.
Speaking of San Francisco, it?s surprising to see the 49ers as just 3-point underdogs at home to St. Louis. The oddsmakers at LVSC made the Rams -5 ?, Seba said. People must think the 49ers really are better, but we?re talking about a team that finished last in offense and defense in 2005.
?A lot of people were impressed with San Francisco hanging in against Arizona,? Seba says. ?But that?s a case of Arizona?s defense being so bad it made San Francisco look good. If you?re only going to make St. Louis -3, you must think San Francisco has improved a whole lot.
?San Francisco is one of the two worst teams in the league. And you?re only laying 3 with St. Louis??
It?s hard to get the public enamored with the Texans. Not only did the Texans pass on Reggie Bush, but they were overwhelmed by the Eagles at home.
So the linesmakers at Pinnacle opened Indy -14 at home against Houston.
?The sharps took the 14 and bought points up to 15,? said a company spokesman for Pinnacle about the Texans-Colts line. ?Now the line is down to 13.?
One professional gambler calls Week 2 the ?Go Slop? week because to get value you?ll have to go against early perceptions.
That means backing teams who stunk in Week 1 such as Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Houston and Tennessee.
It also means picking spots to bet the over since linesmakers have adjusted totals downward following Week 1.
?We adjust on where the money went and what the results were,? Seba says. ?All the money went on the under and the results were on the under, so you have to make that adjustment to the under."
The Lions? defense is better. The 49ers are improved with playmakers on offense. The Texans have a new coach but remain terrible. The Saints could surprise. The Packers are horrendous. The Buccaneers are in for a long season.
These observations are reflected in the Week 2 opening line and some of the early moves.
Hard to believe, but the Packers are home underdogs to the Saints. Prior to this past Sunday, Green Bay probably would have been -3 or -3 ? hosting New Orleans. But not after the Packers were shut out at home by Chicago, and the Saints looked good upsetting Cleveland.
Early money has moved New Orleans as high as -2 against Green Bay after linesmakers opened the Packers -1.
?Saying New Orleans would be a four-point favorite on a neutral field against Green Bay is something I don?t see,? says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. ?There?s a lot of overreaction to Week 1. As an oddsmaker, you have to be conscious of how the public is going to react when they see these teams for the first time.
?I hate to do it as an oddsmaker, because in my heart I know some of these teams aren?t as good or as bad as they showed, but you have to make adjustments based on what the public?s going to do.?
The public probably is going to lay 6 with Atlanta against Tampa Bay and go under the Lions-Bears total.
Based on how well the Falcons did against the Panthers and how the Bucs were shut out at home by the Ravens, oddsmakers opened Atlanta -6 hosting Tampa Bay.
Chris Simms may not be starting material, but taking six points with a playoff team in a division game against an inconsistent Falcons squad seems to present value.
?Sharp bettors will be all over Tampa Bay +6, but as an oddsmaker you can?t afford to make a favorite too small here because most of the parlay cards are going to be on the favorite, especially one that looked as good as Atlanta,? says Seba.
If Detroit?s defense didn?t look so good in holding the Seahawks to three field goals, the Lions-Bears total might have been 35. Taking that into play, linesmakers opened the total at 33. It?s currently down to 32, rare for a September game.
Oddsmakers also are taking into account 10 of Sunday?s 13 games going below the total. That?s the way bettors saw it, since bookmakers adjusted every total downward last week.
While the bookmakers lost on Week 1 totals, they still enjoyed an excellent first week. They won most of the decisions where there were big lines moves, including Miami-Pittsburgh, Buffalo-New England, Seattle-Detroit, Dallas-Jacksonville and San Francisco-Arizona.
Speaking of San Francisco, it?s surprising to see the 49ers as just 3-point underdogs at home to St. Louis. The oddsmakers at LVSC made the Rams -5 ?, Seba said. People must think the 49ers really are better, but we?re talking about a team that finished last in offense and defense in 2005.
?A lot of people were impressed with San Francisco hanging in against Arizona,? Seba says. ?But that?s a case of Arizona?s defense being so bad it made San Francisco look good. If you?re only going to make St. Louis -3, you must think San Francisco has improved a whole lot.
?San Francisco is one of the two worst teams in the league. And you?re only laying 3 with St. Louis??
It?s hard to get the public enamored with the Texans. Not only did the Texans pass on Reggie Bush, but they were overwhelmed by the Eagles at home.
So the linesmakers at Pinnacle opened Indy -14 at home against Houston.
?The sharps took the 14 and bought points up to 15,? said a company spokesman for Pinnacle about the Texans-Colts line. ?Now the line is down to 13.?
One professional gambler calls Week 2 the ?Go Slop? week because to get value you?ll have to go against early perceptions.
That means backing teams who stunk in Week 1 such as Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Houston and Tennessee.
It also means picking spots to bet the over since linesmakers have adjusted totals downward following Week 1.
?We adjust on where the money went and what the results were,? Seba says. ?All the money went on the under and the results were on the under, so you have to make that adjustment to the under."
